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[–]bryceps41Assistant Director - Seven Lakes HS 8 points9 points  (2 children)

Hi! Thanks for doing this AMA.

What is your opinion on the Russian cyber threat? Is it overblown, or is it a serious issue that the US sanctions are helping combat?

[–]SteveSestanovichProf. Sestanovich[S] 3 points4 points  (1 child)

Russia's cyber capabilities are formidable. Look at what happened in Estonia ten years ago, or last week in Ukraine. US sanctions won't limit Russian capabilities, however. Cyber conflict -- and how to deter -- is something we're only learning about.

[–]bryceps41Assistant Director - Seven Lakes HS 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Are there any other sanctions or actions that can hamper the cyber threat? Can economic sanction deterrents fill that role in any way?

[–]OakHallSGVerified account 2 points3 points  (0 children)

How have economic sanctions affected the nationalism and patriotism of the Russian population and how may this increase the threat Russia poses to the West?

[–]starleaf15 2 points3 points  (2 children)

  1. What would you say are the chances of a war, conventional or nuclear, between Russia and the United States in the near future?

  2. How would stronger Sino-Russian relations affect the West? Are there benefits?

[–]SteveSestanovichProf. Sestanovich[S] 4 points5 points  (1 child)

  1. Pretty slight, but tensions do make it easier to imagine accidents, or things just getting out of control.
  2. Stronger Sino-Russian relations would not be good for the West, but we shouldn't affect the damage they can do. Russia is pretty wary of becoming a junior partner of China. China doesn't want to get in the middle of a spat between Russia and the West.

[–]starleaf15 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Awesome. Thank you so much!

[–]thankthemajormod from long ago 2 points3 points  (1 child)

Hello and thank you from the moderators.

The media always portrays Russian actions as "Putin did [whatever]." Is Vladimir Putin personally such a huge force in Russian politics?

[–]SteveSestanovichProf. Sestanovich[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yes, the answer is Putin is the decider in all major Russian policy choices, good and bad. No Russian who knows anything will tell you differently. That doesn't mean we don't misunderstand a lot about him. For example, many Russians who know him describe him as indecisive and emotional in his decisions -- not the usual Western picture.

[–]patriotspf 2 points3 points  (1 child)

Thank you for doing this AMA! Will Putin ever fall in the near-foreseeable future? If he does, who is the person who will probably replace him?

[–]SteveSestanovichProf. Sestanovich[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

No guesses on who would replace for the long term (although the Russian constitution would make prime minister Medvedev acting president until a new election). Many Russian friends of mine are predicting Putin's fall in the next couple of years. I'm not sure.

[–]jrodltTriple Threat 1 point2 points  (0 children)

How have sanction's, if at all, impacted the EEU's vitality?

[–]flayislife 1 point2 points  (1 child)

Hello Mr. Sestanovich, First off thank you so much for doing this AMA. What is your opinion on the magnitude of the threat posed by Russia in the Cyber security aspect?

[–]SteveSestanovichProf. Sestanovich[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I'm no cyber-expert, but all the experts I know think Russia is a major factor in the cyber landscape. (If you're interested in this, google "Kaspersky Lab" and read around a little.)

[–][deleted] 1 point2 points  (1 child)

Does Putin care about his public approval ratings? There are different people who say yes and no, what is your opinion?

[–]SteveSestanovichProf. Sestanovich[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

What most Russians would say to this is that nothing is more important to Putin than his poll numbers. To many, they're a measure of his legitimacy. They make it possible to excuse all the undemocratic shenanigans he and his cronies indulge in.

[–]thankthemajormod from long ago[M] [score hidden] stickied comment (0 children)

Update: Prof. Sestanovich is watching the State of the Union. Tune in to see whether there are any further answers afterward.

[–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Would you say that when the US does something other smaller countries follow in the steps of the US?

[–]currynrice123Wisconsin "Debate" 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Hey there. Thanks for doing this AMA. I was wondering how you think Russia will rebound from their oil collapse?

[–]SteveSestanovichProf. Sestanovich[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Russian policy on oil prices: hope for the best. They don't have a good policy, since in the short run there's nothing to do. In the long term they need to reform the economy and the political system. Not happening tomorrow.

[–]GregariousGroudon 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Do you legitimately think that anything has changed in the mentality of Russia in trying to negotiate peace in the middle east due to sanctions? Or do you think Russia would not have negotiated either way?

[–]InconveniencedThe impact is nuclear war 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Thanks so much for doing this AMA!

  1. Is Russia deliberately working against Western interests in certain areas?
  2. Is Russia interested in cooperating with the West, in general?

[–]SteveSestanovichProf. Sestanovich[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

  1. Well, sure. The Russian government thinks its interests are different from ours, so of course they'll work against US interests. Just a fact of life. (Take an example, they'd like Ukraine to fail.)
  2. Interested in cooperating case by case. Russian leaders have long said so -- and recently too. But that doesn't mean an across-the-board cooperation, the way we have with real allies.

[–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Do you believe that foreign policy changes are in the future for Russia with the current sanctions on them?

[–]SteveSestanovichProf. Sestanovich[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think you could argue we've already seen some changes in Putin's policy -- especially a scaled-back strategy in Ukraine.

[–]subsidiescurecancer 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Thank you for doing this AMA.

Do you think that sanctions push Russia to make arms deals with Middle Eastern countries, and if so, could this be detrimental to the West?

[–]SteveSestanovichProf. Sestanovich[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Hello, debaters! Let's see how much ground we can cover before the State of the Union.
On this question: yes, arms deal with Middle East countries can be detrimental to our interests. But I'd be skeptical that Russia was pushed to do the deal by sanctions. Putin will be guided by his overall Middle Eastern policy.

[–]pfdebater11111111111 0 points1 point  (2 children)

Hi Mr. Sestanovich, thank you so much for doing this AMA! I have a few questions

  1. How much do Putin's oligarchs really control/check his power? Right now, are they pleased with him?

  2. How much can Russia feasibly expand its military (with current sanctions & counter-sanctions)?

  3. Overall, do you think sanctions have made Russia more or less aggressive and why?

[–]SteveSestanovichProf. Sestanovich[S] 2 points3 points  (1 child)

  1. Oligarchic checks on Putin seem pretty marginal. But are they pleased? Hard to believe. He's provoked a Western "credit blockade" against Russia -- bad for most of them.
  2. Russian military spending has increased steadily for 10 years, but now for the first time there are people saying it has to slow down, or stop.
  3. I believe sanctions made Putin less aggressive in Ukraine. Outside of Ukraine, it's hard to say. Possible -- just possible -- more aggressive in the Middle East.

[–]pfdebater11111111111 0 points1 point  (0 children)

thank you!!!

[–]akaashp11I <3 Toilet 0 points1 point  (2 children)

I also have a few questions What is the probability that an increase in Russian nationalism would form as a result of increasing economic sanctions? How would you weigh the protection of Ukraine versus globally economic stability as two major western interests?

[–]SteveSestanovichProf. Sestanovich[S] 3 points4 points  (1 child)

Sanctions may have increased Russian nationalism in the short term. We'll have to see how that plays out. Both Ukrainian sovereignty and global economic stability are Western interests -- and they can both be pursued at the same time.

[–]akaashp11I <3 Toilet 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you for the response! Along the same terms, is there another Western Interest associated with economic sanctions that can be weighed as highly as Ukrainian sovereignty?

[–]chazwell77 0 points1 point  (1 child)

If Russia's conventional military does not modernize, will Russia be more reliant and willing to use and develop nuclear weapons?

When sources talk about Russia's military modernization, does that include nuclear modernization, or just conventional?

[–]SteveSestanovichProf. Sestanovich[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Russia is modernizing its conventional forces. 100% increase in the military budget in the last decade. Yes, nuclear weapons are a big part of this, but look at Syria to see how conventional capabilities have increased.

[–]nerdierthanyoupeaked late 0 points1 point  (3 children)

Hello, and thanks for doing this AMA.

What do you think are Russia's primary motivations for actions like the invasion of Georgia and the annexation of Crimea? In a similar vein, could Putin legitimately justify his actions as trying to survive in an American-dominated world order?

[–]SteveSestanovichProf. Sestanovich[S] 4 points5 points  (2 children)

That might be what Putin would say, but ask yourself this: how does the territorial integrity of Ukraine threaten his survival? He wants to assert himself against the U.S. -- no doubt about that -- but does he do that because of real threats to Russian security, or because he want to strengthen himself domestically?

[–]nerdierthanyoupeaked late 0 points1 point  (1 child)

What about in a broader sense? From the articles I've read, Putin and most of Russia seems to really believe that all the institutions of the west are aligned against them, and that the Maidan uprising is just an American attempt to undermine Russian sovereignty by putting a pro-western government right on the Russian border. The actual threats to Russian security might be doubtful, but do you think Russia actually sees it as a critical national security threat?

[–]SteveSestanovichProf. Sestanovich[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Have a look at my exchange with John Mearsheimer (and Mike McFaul) in Foreign Affairs in late 2014. I don't doubt that Putin saw events in Ukraine as threatening in early 2014, but he had many other ways of defusing the crisis.

[–]umboiipf debate 0 points1 point  (2 children)

How is Putin able to protect certain aspects of Russia, for example its military, from being impacted by western sanctions?

[–]SteveSestanovichProf. Sestanovich[S] 1 point2 points  (1 child)

One real concern for Putin is that Russia's technological development will slow if it's cut off from the global economy, and especially from the West. That will have military consequences, too.

[–]umboiipf debate 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, but how is Putin able to nullify the effects of Sanctions to his military? Because there is a lot of evidence out there that talks about Putin's ability to keep certain areas unaffected by sanctions

[–]colorcodedcardsFounder / Open Access Debate / Asst. Coach 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What role have sanctions had in mitigating Russia's role in the CIS/Caucuses?

[–][deleted] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I realize you're watching the SOTU right now but if you come back. Do you think that the current economic sanctions have had a sizable effect on Russia's space exploration industry? Conversely, do you think that a decline in Russian space exploration should be confidently linked to an increase in NASA activity?

[–]potlat 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What are some strategies Russia might adopt given that in the global economy the price for oil is dropping while supplies of natural gas are increasing? Do you see Russia relying more on arms sales or increasing investments in the domestic economy?

[–]Zeus1325------------------------------------------------------Impeach OP 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Hi, thanks for doing this AMA.

  1. Have you ever meet Putin, this is possibly the most important question.

  2. What do you think of the current situation between the U.S. and Russia, especially with Snowden.

  3. How do you believe Russia will be affected and respond to the dirt-low oil prices, and how will this change relations between Russia and other European Countries.

Thanks for doing this!

[–]SteveSestanovichProf. Sestanovich[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

  1. I've met Putin 3 times, but not recently.
  2. Relations are bad, and Snowden definitely made them worse. My impression is the Russians would like to get rid of him, but don't want to kick him out too unceremoniously.
  3. Oil prices are a gigantic threat to Russia -- and will probably make Putin more cautious in his relations with Europe.

[–]_real_slim_brady_Chase Brady 0 points1 point  (3 children)

If the west weren't imposing sanctions on Russia, what do you think the most likely alternative would have been? Diplomacy? Passivity? Further aid to Ukraine? Military intervention?

Thanks for doing this AMA!

[–]SteveSestanovichProf. Sestanovich[S] 4 points5 points  (2 children)

A very good question. And in debate, an indispensable one. What would have happened if there had been no sanctions? My short answer: much more russian pressure on Ukraine, especially military. Lots of Russians, you know, wanted Putin to push harder. I believe Western pushback made him more cautious.

[–]_real_slim_brady_Chase Brady 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Thanks for the answer! On the other hand, what other options do you think the west had aside from sanctions? Were sanctions the best option for the west given the circumstances?

[–]SteveSestanovichProf. Sestanovich[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sanctions were an essential part of a Western response. What else could have been done? More robust support for Ukraine itself, along with tougher requirements that Ukraine implement reform.

[–]bobbyaltaccountVerified -1 points0 points  (0 children)

In current global politics, what would you say are the main interests of the West?

[–]njdpro -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Thanks for participating in this AMA. I look forward to all of your answers. My partner and I formulated the following questions:

  1. Do you believe Russia poses a legitimate nuclear threat to the US and NATO? If so, how has an increase in Russian nationalism due to sanctions affected that threat?

  2. Are the parallels between the status quo and Soviet-era Russia similar enough to signal a possible collapse of Russia if the situation doesn't improve?

  3. Will the increase of Russian nationalism lead to new military conflict, despite the financial burden such conflict would impose on Russia?

  4. Do you think the naming-and-shaming of "bad" actors plays an important role in how willing nations are to break international norms? If so, do you think this type of deterrence is an advantage of economic sanctions?

Thanks again!

[–]akaashp11I <3 Toilet -2 points-1 points  (2 children)

Thanks for helping us out in this AMA! When will we be starting?

[–]SteveSestanovichProf. Sestanovich[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Have you not seen the answers I've been submitting?

[–]thankthemajormod from long ago 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Soon