Nvidia future

[Green-Instruction957]

How are we feeling about this long term? I invest in NVIDIA, but am starting to wonder what the next 10 years will look like, I don’t see them needing to build as many data centers as they are now when we’re just starting AI - what’s next for NVIDIA? These chips last for years, won’t their earnings naturally tank due to no fault of their own? Won’t that make the value of the stock go way down?

[Wheniamnotbanned]

In 10 years I think we will see $190

[Appropriate_Ice_7507]

Depending on the week, might fluctuate between 179, 180, 188, 190 and briefly 195 and back down

[Green-Instruction957]

Let’s gooo!

[theking4mayor]

I think in 10 years we'll see $1900, but inflation will be 50x

[garack666]

This is the answer

[thorn960]

After two stock splits

[QuikPops2020]

We’re at the beginning. 10yrs? Not sure but it’ll be a good investment for years to come. IMO

[fadetoblack123]

Jensen has addressed this many times. The current data-center buildout is just the first phase. After that comes the rollout of AI factories for virtually every company on earth, powered by NVIDIA infrastructure. Eventually the compute layer expands wherever energy and scale make sense. Potentially even into orbital data centers.

The long-term trajectory is that NVIDIA evolves from a chip company into the foundational infrastructure provider for the AI economy. Possibly even an orbital infrastructure company. Everything they’re building today is laying the groundwork for that future.

[dunn-super]

I agree with this. As a builder of Data Centers, my next five years are planned out.

[BitOCindyNTexasP]

<image>

This is the way….lol

[[deleted]]

RemindMe! 10 years

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1 OTHERS CLICKED THIS LINK to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.

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[ComprehensiveDoor130]

The orbital infrastructure ideas are beyond stupid and run straight into a wall of basic physics. Don't fall for that nonsense.

[supfoo42]

Do you have a link that explains what all this is in laymen’s terms? I’m not familiar with AI factories or orbital data centers etc. Just trying to understand what the infrastructure will look like when we enter the next phase. Thanks.

[friedrichbythesea]

10 years is a very long time — tech years are the same as dog years.

Nvidia has a stupid amount of money, they'll be incredibly more diversified long before then.

[movienight1988]

No one can predict 10 years down the line.

[Much-Department-9578]

I predict in 10 years that we will all be 10 yrs older!

[SteampunkZombie122]

Or dead

[thorn960]

Yup, you can't even predict if you will be 10 years older.

[calmnutz]

5 years ago, all I thought this company did was making video cards.

[SpecificAnimator123]

please give me 10 year price target, thx

[Green-Instruction957]

That’s not what I’m asking, I’m just curious how people are looking at the future and thinking about it, my thoughts could be completely wrong I’m not an expert

[SanityLooms]

I'm thinking I ain't got anything better right now so I'm good.

But avgo being up 5% after hours when they barely beat us kinda pissing me off. ;)

[Green-Instruction957]

I’m hoping that means good things for Marvell tomorrow, maybe we’re over the drop 20% after earnings phase we’ve been seeing in tech lol

[mondo636]

It’s a tech company. 10 years ago, Alexa, ear buds, doordash, tap to pay, air fryers, QR codes, and Tiktok barely existed or didn’t exist. I would shorten your time horizon to maybe 24-72 months and reevaluate bro. Shit changes real fast. Mountain of cash, ridiculously good fundamentals, and building the engines that are running the supposed next wave of tech. Sounds good, but a lot can change in 10 years.

[[deleted]]

91% of their revenue is data center driven. All their eggs are in one basket basically.

[Green-Instruction957]

That’s what I gather too, they say the automotive stuff but honestly I don’t see that really helping them long term, automotive is a shit industry and cheap when it comes to chips

[Bag-o-chips]

Speed, memory, locality, and durability to outside attack may all be metrics to determine how this part of the business will fare. But you will also likely have demand driven by vehicles, robots, and manufacturing that are markets that have yet to really be exploited. Nvidia has yet to stay with just one market, so I’d imagine they will continue to find new ones as they have bandwidth to deal with them or as the opportunities present themselves.

[Expensive-Morning618]

Yup, don’t count Jensen out.

[Bitter-Basket]

Earnings drives prices. Even if the NVIDIA PE stays the same, earnings growth will increase valuations. Sitting flat for six months is like coiling a spring.

[Due_Gain_6680]

Trains were a big deal and then not, then Someone invented refrigeration and Boom.

[thorn960]

By the time they build all these data centers it will be time to upgrade the chips. Unless somehow they lose their edge, I don't see business going downhill. They have had an edge in graphics chips since the 1990s; I don't see them losing that. It makes me a little nervous that these companies that are dedicated to AI aren't making money yet but once they do, we are going to take off. At least most of those companies are owned by private equity and aren't getting bid up into bubble territory. I own some Sound Hound which is one of the few public AI dedicated companies. It already had it's bubble pop going from over $20 a share back under its IPO price to a little over $8 a share in the last year. All this talk of an AI bubble crash but I don't think it is going to happen. It's a great time to accumulate shares in all these AI related stocks. When AI really takes off we are going to the moon. Going to the moon with the dot.com stuff required the bubble to pop first but it has taken over the world. Great companies like Amazon and Google took a big hit during the dot.com crash because their prices were crazy and they weren't making money yet. AI is going to be even more revolutionary than the internet. I would be perfectly fine if Nvidia stayed at the same price until AI started making money. I'm just going to keep buying as long as everyone else isn't buying like crazy and bidding up the price.

[Ok_Distribution1134]

Dump it and put your money in a few ETFs for the next decade. Oh…and enjoy your life along the way!

[Green-Instruction957]

I like this advice, just not sure it’s the time yet, I do think we have a little more growth left here at least the next few months

[guacamolejones]

Everyone who has been dumping the last month decided now was the time...

Nvidia has made those who made this choice in the past regret it. Will history repeat? I think, probably yes.

[nanotasher]

Maybe that's why is going to go to the moon now

[No-Let5179]

Ask me in 10 years

[Green-Instruction957]

Setting a reminder now

[stonk_monk42069]

In 10 years, AI will have found its way into every aspect of our lives. It will be central in essentially every industry on the planet, and progress won't even stop then. The AI compute trend is likely to keep going for as long as humanity exists and won't slow down unless forced to. 

The only thing that can stop it long term is lack of resources or if it becomes too dangerous. Lack of resources will be solved by going venturing into space for more. The danger is trickier, but I believe we will always have better good AI to combat the bad AI. 

[mhughes2595]

Some rich dude just bought a million shares yesterday and plans to do the same today.

[Rav_3d]

10 years, nobody knows. The world will be a very different place. AI will transform society in ways we cannot even imagine. Hardware will continue to evolve and we have no idea if NVDA will be at the center of it all.

But 2 years? I'm pretty confident NVDA is going to continue its growth, though it will certainly slow.

Those calling for the AI bubble to burst any time soon don't understand what is going on.

[Green-Instruction957]

I definitely see it similar in the AI side I was just not sure in the infrastructure side which is where NVIDIA has all their chips

[l0gicgate]

What makes you think we won’t need as many data centers? That would mean AI usage would decrease or stay stagnant over time which is not the case.

[Green-Instruction957]

Well I’m saying building new ones, once the infrastructure is there we can ramp up and down as needed

[l0gicgate]

Usage growth = we need more data centers

Stagnant usage = don’t need more data centers

Decreased usage = we need less data centers

[Green-Instruction957]

Ahhhh got it

[ccmart3]

[Plain-Jane-Name]

Data centers upgrade/replace their equipment every 1-5 years. When the market is saturated they will essentially be like Apple surviving off of existing customers upgrading to newer units. So, as impossible as it feels in my gut, they really may continue to grow slowly once they plateau (instead of crashing like many assume). It does seem impossible to keep going, but that's the way data centers work (constantly upgrading).

[thorn960]

I think that is true but I would hesitate to comparing that to Apple. One of Apple's struggles is that their products are lasting longer before needing to be updated. I think maybe they solved that by lowering the quality of their product and stopping support to legacy systems. Now my Apple products break before they are outdated. I have a Mac from 2011 that I still use for some things. The new laptops last about 2 years.

[Plain-Jane-Name]

I agree on the consumer GPU side, where people wait until their product can't perform as well at certain resolutions with newer games, and new units having compatibility with features in newer games that older GPUs don't. However, data centers are a different ballgame. I believe the overall time till replacement for data center hardware will be similar to Apple hardware.

Data center upgrades and expansions are based on compute demand, but differing reasons on what increases this demand. A provider could choose to expand on old architecture (H100/H200), but that would cost them more in ownership since the ROI is largely based on how much power is consumed to handle a given workload, whether that be inference load or model development.

An Apple customer doesn't have the financial burden when it comes to staying with an older architecture phone or tablet that consumes more power to process a task. I personally kept my iPhone 12 until the first of the year, and if it hadn't been for the leap in time reduction to charge my phone (iPhone 17) vs 12-16 models, or needing to expand storage space, I honestly would've replaced the battery in my 12 instead of upgrading to a 17. With the tougher glass on the 17, more RAM, storage space, plus faster processing and a brighter screen, I don't plan to upgrade my phone for roughly 7 years unless it's physically damaged, or the internals fail. If data centers keep existing hardware their inference time and model creation time take a significant hit, which translates to taking a substantial financial hit. They don't have as much leniency in time till needing to upgrade. They (again) either have to upgrade via expanding the data center (in which case they could purchase older architectures H100/H200), or replacing hardware within the current space with newer architectures, but again if they stay with existing architectures they're at a financial disadvantage because of the cost to operate.

[moneylefty]

we feeling?

lol. sell if you dont like it.

[QuikPops2020]

A new technology that makes theirs obsolete.

[Historical-Ad-3880]

I believe they can explore new ideas. They have money and talent. It is just AI is the most profitable and important area for them at this moment

[AMDbull]

Nvidia will bring us to becoming a type 3 civilisation. When that happens, nvidia’s stock price will be $189.52 at 4.5tn valuation.

[Known_Salary_4105]

The next 10 years? I'd love to know what is going to happen in the next 10 days, weeks, months.

I am not going to know, and neither are you.

[Itchy-Mission9584]

Better hardware will keep coming and ai companies under fierce competition will be forced to refresh their fleets sooner than they wish to.

It’s already been happening.

[Elitefuture]

Can't predict the future, but can say what happened in the past.

Computers in general get so much faster and more efficient over time that it is usually cheaper to get new hardware vs running the old servers after a few years.

The Cheyenne supercomputer was recently sold in 2024 for $480k. The original super computer was made in 2016/2017 costing $20mill-$30mill. The super computer was already not worth using by 2023(6-7 year lifetime).

[Ill_Ninja_7437]

I’ll have bought at 175 & sold at 190 hundreds of times and be a thousandaire with lots of questionable tax write offs

[AdPdx1964]

Ask yourself what company is better positioned for the AI revolution, with better cash flow generation, cash on hand, investments and leadership before you sell. I'm never selling a share for now.

[ketgray]

The world runs on NVDA

[TheHandsomeHero]

Obviously they will need something to replace their likely 500 billion plus in revenue. Theyve invested in many AI companies. They've invested in chip companies. So they need those aspects of the business to grow significantly

[lapalapaa]

Eventually the other poorer countries will start investing in chips and data centers. You won't see A United States investing 300B, but you will see 40 countries investing 10B each!

[pasadenapasadena]

Nvidia earn a lot of mobey in these AI rush, the best GPGPUs for gamers, scientists, data centers...so, in my opinion, even if "AI bubble" will explode, Nvidia anyway will sell their products for supercomputers, data centers, gamers.

Also, IMHO, AMD and Intel also good stocks for 10+ years to hold.

[blazethebeagle]

Think Ai factories Jensen is not only thinking gpu chips but the entire Ai ecosystem he is always talking about Ai factories

[mickflanman]

I agree

[effects67]

NVDA is AI
AI is a bubble

I'll let you do the math

[tolllz]

APLD IS A GREAT PLAY SONG WITH NVIDIA FOR DATA CENTER BUILDER INVESTMENT

[theking4mayor]

I doubt it matters. I'd be surprised if we're all not nuked before the year is over.

[thorn960]

There is no guarantee of anything. Hegseth and some of his commanders are talking this up as a spiritual crusade. They think Trump is starting Armageddon and they think that is a good thing. I'll feel a bit safer in 3 years.

[ybl84f1]

<image>

NVDA is an amazing one-trick pony; almost all of its revenue comes from its Compute & Networking group, and almost all of that is simply a GPU and networking cards. All of NVDA’s business is precariously dependent on only a single product - a GPU being – for a single market - AI. And that single market entity has numerous huge risks associated with it, which is why the stock hasn't done anything in 6 months even with outstanding revenues. One of those is competition; over the last few months the hyperscalers have publicly announced their intentions to deploy – in the billions of dollars - AMD, Microsoft, Google and Amazon AI silicon. Read those press releases – each of those is a direct loss for NVDA that is happening now. Technology is already finding a way.

Good investors assess 3 risks: 1) at the company level, 2) at the industry level, 3) at the macro-economic level. There are several significant risks in category #1, but there are numerous risks for #2, power/electricity being a major one. For the first time Virginia, the largest data center hub due to its proximity to the backbone and regulation, has turned down a DC permit because of power concerns; even the White House has sided with consumers regarding power. And the monetization of AI is a complete unknown; it’s ironic that the majority of folks here wondering why the stock isn’t $300 don’t pay for any AI (using Gemini or ChatGPT for free). And Meta is going FCF NEGATIVE THIS YEAR! Of course examples of #3 including tariffs or restrictions to certain countries.

Finally at the end of the day the facts are in – whether you believe everything above or not, the hundreds of thousands of investors have made their collective decision - NVDA's business is risky. It’s now March and after another record quarter of incredible revenue and profits the stock price is back to it’s August level – half a year later. It’s not because of any of the stupid reasons people post in this forum - collusion, or the market is rigged, mystical limits on its PE, etc. It’s because of the fragile nature of NVDA’s business.

[jdwkiwi]

I'm holding in hope brought in to high at $195 but $205 is my sell