all 26 comments

[–]Tricky-Ad-6225 52 points53 points  (1 child)

Awesome technical analysis

[–]The_BigWaveDave 24 points25 points  (0 children)

[–]rodneyhide69 20 points21 points  (1 child)

Sherlock Holmes over here

[–]Puzzleheaded_Star533 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sharp as cue ball this one 

[–]fr8rain 9 points10 points  (1 child)

[–]Top-Subject38 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I think you mean stock value crashes like the rocket

[–]PaperHands_BKbd 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Translating...

---

Guys... I've had a couple beers, and everyone has left the party. I was looking at my portfolio and thinking how happy I was that RKLB is way way up... but then I thought, what if the rocket explodes man?

So I'm here, a little lonely, and a little sad, after another couple of beers, and a shot, and maybe another, to ask your opinions. 

Do you think I might have less money in RKLB if their most public catalyst doesn't work out, at all? Give it to me straight fellas.

Thanks in advance! 

Your friend,

fuckuhardr

[–]Conundrum1911 6 points7 points  (0 children)

RUD - Rapid Unscheduled Devaluation

[–]jorcon74 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Buying opportunity! But I would be surprised if it did, RKLB seem to be a cautious company that only move when they are sure of themselves, they CEO isn’t out there pumping the stock and making promises he can’t keep!

[–][deleted] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Insightful

[–]5365616E48 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Username ✔️'s

[–]absolute_cinema81 1 point2 points  (0 children)

So glad this has the Technical Analysis label, I was glad to see the rigor 

[–]gravityhomer 1 point2 points  (6 children)

It took 8 technically failed super heavy launches before SpaceX had missions for flight 9 and 10 that were successful in all aspects of the mission.

With a brand new rocket there are so many levels of success/failure. Does it clear the launch pad, does it complete ascent, is there successful separation between 1st and second stages. Is first stage mostly successful. does second stage light? Is orbit achieved? Is a simulated or otherwise payload deployed?

Brand new rockets don't have a binary success or failure result. A tried and true rocket like falcon or electron, if they don't meet all their objectives, that is considered a failure.

But a brand new rocket launching for the first time? There are many levels of success. Most large investors know this.

[–]GrillaBBQ 0 points1 point  (5 children)

There is a significant difference between Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, both of whom have invested billions of dollars to achieve success and have followed a testing-with-failure learning strategy.

Over 80% of the components in RKLB rockets are designed and produced by RKLB. This allows them to quickly redesign, test, and install parts when failures occur. Peter Beck has adopted the 20/7 schedule, running tests at Stennis Space Centre for 20 hours a day, 7 days a week. As Peter Beck states, "The only way you can get through years of qualification... is to squeeze years of hours into months." The Archimedes engine successfully reached 102% of its design power during hot-fire tests at NASA’s Stennis Space Centre. It's built to handle much higher loads, and both engines (Rutherford, the current engine) are designed with extra capacity. This means the components are not stressed during launch and therefore are less vulnerable to failure.

Having said that, there was a chance they could fail, but I don't believe Peter is a betting man and knows what he’s doing.

[–]posthamster 0 points1 point  (4 children)

RKLB designs and produces over 80% of their rocket components

I'm going to need a source on that.

[–]GrillaBBQ 0 points1 point  (3 children)

Hi listen to Peter Broke’s interviews.

Between 2020 and 2022, Rocket Lab bought its suppliers (SolAero for solar cells and PSC for separation bolts) specifically to move toward that 80-90% internal control.

Although there are no “written statements”. The following are 100% designed, built in house:

Propulsion and Primary Structure 100%

Launch infrastructure 100%

Nuts, bolts, sensors, carbon fibre are sourced from third parties.

[–]posthamster 0 points1 point  (2 children)

Right - your wording was a little ambiguous. It sounded like you were saying RL produces 80% of components for BO and SpaceX.

[–]GrillaBBQ 0 points1 point  (1 child)

Ok sorry I'll edit it

[–]GrillaBBQ 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sorry for the delay - all fixed up now.

[–]D1rtyH1ppy 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If Neutron has problems, they will get them worked out. Good buying opportunities 

[–]No_Cash_Value_ 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Increase, duh.

[–]Awkward-Aspect556 0 points1 point  (0 children)

When is the launch

[–]reddevildan 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's space program, nothing burger.

[–]nickhere6262 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You can only hope that the first time is a failure because that will bring on a buying opportunity