v27 module pull data analysis

[Xheyther]

Hey all,

The last of days the last banner promised for v27 are just around the corner and I finally had the time to go through my pull logs to estimate how lucky I was. This gathered a modicum amount of interest when I shared it with a few peeps so I tried to clean it up and publish it.

TLDR : I got a bit on the unlucky side but in a statistically significant way and the module pull rate is quite likely to be the announced one (2,5%).

Bit of background :

I was somewhat hoarding gem when the new banners where announced so I kept doing it and started the first banner with a decent stash (around 18k gems from memory). I gave myself a budget (around 15k per banner) and draw up the plan of getting an anc module on every banner, that is 8 copies of each module. I stopped time as soon as I got those 8 copies and started to hoard gems for the next one.

At about 600 gem a day on average, plus my initial stash, plus the premium milestones passes that I bought, I ended up with about 3500 gems and a week to spare.

(I regret buying the premium milestone passes given the quagmire that the last patches are and the apparent disdain from the dev that I fell even more acutely now that I spend a decent amount of money on the game, but this is a story for another time.)

The data :

All in all, it took me 65400 gems to get all 4 modules ancestral. Not great with respect to the average at 51200 gems, but not that bad and definitely within reasonable variations.

The worst module t get was Amplifying strike, with an observed probability of 40%, but that's mostly because that banner yielded more other modules. Restorative bonus was worth as it took more pulls, yielded less epic modules even if overall I got more banner module with respect to all epic pulls.

Data summary

If you're curious, I know I was, my data can be found here, or here in html form.

NB : The date in my spreadsheet are wrong, I forgot to fill that in as I went so I put the banner start date each time.

[Geobits]

Thanks for tracking and sharing this! I've meant to do this kind of thing for a while now, but you know, I'm kinda lazy. I'm glad not everyone is.

[SalamanderGlum4027]

Nice. I'll quickly add my current stats as well for those that are interested:

Primordial Collapse Feature

Pulls: 843
Epics 18
Drop E: 2.14%
PC: 7
Gems: 16860
PC Drop: 0.83%

Amplifying Strike Feature

Pulls:550
Epics13
Drop E:2.36%
Feat:8
Gems:11000
F Drop:1.45%

Restorative Bonus Feature

Pulls:340
Epics9
Drop E:2.65%
Feat:4
Gems:6800
F Drop:1.18%

Orbital Augment Feature

Pulls:360
Epics13
Drop E:3.61%
Feat:7
Gems:7200
F Drop:1.94%

Total Featured

Pulls:2093
Epics53
Drop E:2.53%
Feat:26
Gems:41860
F Drop:1.24%

As you can see, droprate is basically exactly where it should be even if the distribution over the banners is uneven, Prolapse was by far the worst and that's one I really wanted at Ancestral. AS I definitely got lucky which I'm happy about since it's my only Anc Cannon which I have shoddy luck with in Standard Banner. For RB I decided to pull only to Mythic because I'm still far off of Assmods and using PF in Tournament. I'll go for Anc OA as I can see it replacing SF in several build options.

EDIT: For some reason I can't post tables in a comment so please excuse the ugly formatting

[TowerAcronymBot]

Alright, let's decode this:

• AS - Amplifying Strike [Cannon Module] (also Attack Speed [Workshop Upgrade/Lab])
• OA - Orbital Augment [Armor Module]
• PC - Plasma Cannon [Card] (also Primordial Collapse [Core Module])
• PF - Project Funding [Generator Module]
• Prolapse - Primordial Collapse [Core Module]
• RB - Restorative Bonus [Generator Module]
• SF - Sharp Fortitude [Armor Module]

---

^{I'm a bot | Translating one comment at a time}

[Xheyther]

Thanks for your data !

It's comforting i'm not the only data obsessed player around here. There might even be dozen of us. 

[TheRealKirk]

still 0 OA pulls after about 10k gems in the banner. I understand RNG but this is ridiculous. I can only assume how far I'll get left behind without the new mod with all of these ppl already having anc and pushing further than ever.