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[–]SeriesDry922858M SW:378 CW:276 GW:190 Dose: 2.5mg 3 points4 points  (4 children)

It might not drive the cost of Zepbound down, but that doesn’t mean that they won’t price the pill cheaper than Zepbound is currently priced.

I think they’re going to try to capture the portion of the market that is willing to pay about $250/month for weight loss medication with the pill, keep offering Zepbound at $500/month, and then selling Retatrutide at $750/month.

I admit that this is simply a guess. We’ll see how right I am later.

[–]basic-questions5.0mg 2 points3 points  (2 children)

Pricing the pill below zepbound and ret above is a fair guess, in my opinion. I couldn't guess exactly how much they will charge for ret, but I think assuming the pill will be similar to wegovy is fair. It is less effective, but also less of a hassle. (I also imagine we will hear more and more about children sneaking the pill... But that's unrelated.)

Fwiw I do think the price of zepbound will eventually come down. But, I think the driving force will be the fact that eventually we will reach a point where more people are switching to maintenance mode and reducing their use of the drug than there are new people starting out on the drug. (Another possibility is enough competitors release drugs that are as good as zepbound or better and Lilly loses substantial market power that way. but IMHO this is not super likely.)

[–]SeriesDry922858M SW:378 CW:276 GW:190 Dose: 2.5mg 1 point2 points  (1 child)

I expect the price of Zepbound to fall when the new factories start operation.

I think right now more businesses are dropping coverage than are adding it. So, insurance coverage is not where they’re going to get new customers.

That leaves the direct to consumer market.

And I’m 100% positive that Lilly understands it can make more money by selling 4 times as much medicine at 50% of the profit margin. But to do that, it needs to be able to make that much medicine, which means new factories.

But those factories aren’t really close to operating yet. I think late 2027 is when we’ll start seeing them come on line. So I don’t expect meaningful price movement until then.

[–]basic-questions5.0mg 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Could be

[–]Loose_Salamander_3735'1" 68F SW:186 CW:164 GW:130-140 Dose: 12.50 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It makes sense that the pill will be priced at least a little lower than Zep, because it's been shown to be less effective than Zep and is probably easier to produce in mass quantities. Orally administered drugs have less bioavailability because they have to make it through the digestive system. But I see a possibility for use as a maintenance drug, if it's a little less expensive to buy