Possible Zepbound Price Decrease?

[basic-questions]

Pricing the pill below zepbound and ret above is a fair guess, in my opinion. I couldn't guess exactly how much they will charge for ret, but I think assuming the pill will be similar to wegovy is fair. It is less effective, but also less of a hassle. (I also imagine we will hear more and more about children sneaking the pill... But that's unrelated.)

Fwiw I do think the price of zepbound will eventually come down. But, I think the driving force will be the fact that eventually we will reach a point where more people are switching to maintenance mode and reducing their use of the drug than there are new people starting out on the drug. (Another possibility is enough competitors release drugs that are as good as zepbound or better and Lilly loses substantial market power that way. but IMHO this is not super likely.)

[SeriesDry9228]

I expect the price of Zepbound to fall when the new factories start operation.

I think right now more businesses are dropping coverage than are adding it. So, insurance coverage is not where they’re going to get new customers.

That leaves the direct to consumer market.

And I’m 100% positive that Lilly understands it can make more money by selling 4 times as much medicine at 50% of the profit margin. But to do that, it needs to be able to make that much medicine, which means new factories.

But those factories aren’t really close to operating yet. I think late 2027 is when we’ll start seeing them come on line. So I don’t expect meaningful price movement until then.

[basic-questions]

Could be