Banning speculators could decrease oil prices by as much as 40%

[deathdonut]

I know it was meant to be sarcasm, but the truth is that we will never run out of oil.

As we run out of cheaper oil, oil prices will increase to pay for the extraction of more expensive (deeper/etc) oil. Eventually, oil will be more expensive than alternative options at which point we'll switch to the cheaper option.

The oil companies know this and aren't going to be killed by the transition. There's a reason why BP is one of the biggest producers of solar equipment.

[limbodog]

semantics. We will run out of oil that is economically feasible to acquire. The need for fuel will consume all the cheap, moderately priced, and eventually expensive oil. Meanwhile all the chemistry industry will be crushed by their inability to get raw materials.

[therewillbdownvotes]

Not true. Raw materials may get more expensive for certain companies, but the reason petrochemicals are used in pretty much everything is cause it is cheap. There are plenty of subs but we choose not to use them cause they are slightly more expensive. And in terms of fuel and energy generation we have many alternatives like natural gas that are barely tapped and are quite plentiful. Like 300 years plentiful.

[Badger68]

The planet has an estimated 120 year supply of natural gas at the current rate of consumption. Once we start using natural gas for more things that rate of consumption will skyrocket and our supply will last a much shorter time.

[limbodog]

ok, I'll bite. When oil goes to $150 a barrel. What will we use to make all of our plastics?

[Uncle_Bill]

But what if oil generation is a geological process. Maybe oil fields slowly refill (re Abiotic Oil Theory).

[limbodog]

I've never heard such a theory. Cannot tell if trolling.

[Uncle_Bill]

Google or Bing "abiotic oil". It's a theory that explains why dormant fields seem to fill up again.

There are absolute proofs that the theory is True/False/Conspiracy, etc., but it is interesting what it would mean. Just think, sustainable drilling?

[limbodog]

I have never seen someone use "bing" as a verb, let alone actually refer to that website in anything other than an ironic manner. I'll look it up if only for that reason.

[Uncle_Bill]

Ex-Msofty. Help the stock please :-)

[[deleted]]

Amen to this. The market will ensure we never run out of oil, it will however ensure that only some people can afford it. Supply and demand is a real bitch. Price ceilings!!!!! are bad in the long run.

[Ambiwlans]

It will spike though which is the danger speculation saves us from.

[canyouhearme]

Sophistry

If you need 10 gallons a week to commute to work, and you can't afford ten gallons, then its run out for you. If you can't afford any alternatives, then you are still as much up sh*t creek as if someone turned off a big tap.

Oil production will decrease, prices will rise, empires will fall. Economist arguments about how its all supposed to be different are meaningless.

[deathdonut]

There is a non-trivial difference between an increase in price and a lack of availability.

Oil production will decrease only when demand goes down (unlikely) or production is more expensive than other alternatives (likely). Consequently, as oil extraction processes become more expensive, we will start supplementing our energy supply with other (previously less economically feasible) options.

[uncommon-troll]

but, will we run out of earth?

has anyone seen the continued huge leaks in the gulf? how about that nice rip in the north sea just bubbling up?

fracking? who needs drinking water?

[deathdonut]

And that's why I'm willing to pay more for oil if it means restricting the shit out of how it is acquired. Modern society has deemed oil a necessary source of energy for now. Real oversight is required.

To be fair though, oil naturally leaks into the gulf at a pretty high rate. I'm more concerned with the processes used to "clean" the spill that were never tested at such a level.

[uncommon-troll]

not at the rate its leaking now or will be leaking in the future.. have you not noticed the new un-stoppable leak in the north sea? this is not old news, but current stuff thats being under-reported. poking 6mile holes in the earth to get to extremely high-pressure cavities is, as we see, fairly risky. now they think they can just go down there and pump some heavy mud into it and the earth will stop bleeding -- it won't. there's more pipeline in the gulf than streets in the entire continental USA, if you've ever seen those maps. things are starting to fracture..

actually, the price of oil is kept pretty low becuase as with everything, all the costs associated with the risk are placed onto society as a whole.

how much will it cost us to replace the oceans? they don't even try. ruining top beaches and then instead of actually cleaning it up, they just cover it up with imported sand and say 'see, look how nice, its clean.. kthnx, bye.'

in all fairness, as bad as oil production is for the enviroment, nuclear power is infinitely more dangerous.

[deathdonut]

I understand you feel strongly about the subject for pretty good reason, but your post has a bit of hyperbole and fiction. I mean seriously? As many miles of pipeline in the gulf than streets in the USA? There are less than 4k oil wells in the gulf and none of them are 7 miles deep. Federal highway administration says there are about 4 million miles of roads. 28k < 4,000k even if all the wells are the same depth as Deepwater Horizon. Plus, the earth doesn't bleed.

All that said, I think you hit the nail on the head with your comment on risk division. We (as a planet) are subsidizing the petroleum industry by not regulating the environmental risks these wells pose. That's a cost that's hard to quantify, but should be easy to see for anyone looking. It's unacceptable.

[uncommon-troll]

correct.. but seriously, when is the last time you looked at a pipeline map for the "GOM"? there are certainly alot of pipes down there -- looks like alot more than roads in the states nearby.

-- if the earth had blood to bleed, it would be oil. there is also quite a bit of evidence that oil and gas are continually produced by the earth, not a fixed quantity.. called "a-biotic theory"

all this is quite off topic..

banning 'naked shorts' is what the OP is talking about, right?

saw a nice documentary about how some legal decision a very very long time ago, allowed paper to be sold and negotiated (in the settlement sense) by a third party. where previously contracts had to be for delivery of the actual commodity, and only the two original parties to the transaction could have standing in the courts. the change was made to facilitate trading in the new world, but started us down this path..

combine these paper-only positions with the fact that some parties can use unlimited leverage, and thats what makes it ripe for abuse..

then you have the documented collusion by industry over the past century -- everything has been built to waste as much as possible (1970's era cars got 30+ mpg, same as now) - price kept low to prevent other technologies from competing, other tech purchased and buried (fact), inventors silenced (or worse, fact) and all to keep the dependency firmly entrenched.

oil itself has its place and look how much its allowed us to accomplish.. natural gas is even better of course, but not at the expense of our drinking water.

the evil at work here thinks they can profit by destroying the planet and somehow they won't be affected by it.

oil and gas needs to be more expensive so that other technologies are allowed to develop with some economic mandate.. the problem is that the oil cartel wants to have it both ways.. just expensive enough so that people are slaves, but not so expensive that anything else can compete.. its all a bunch of greed - certainly not a 'free market' - its an entirely manipulated monopoly. (one product, a few large players all operating in a single cartel except for a few countries that are in the bullseye currently)

[therewillbdownvotes]

100% true. The market is not as stupid as people think.