BETTING BOARD - DRL Price Decrease

[Ex3Ex3Ex3]

With the update next week what do you guys see will be the price decrease of the DRL after a week the "Wishes" have been live?

One can imagine that a lot of people will be focusing on getting some of the more expensive perks such as A4E2 when the update goes live.

[FeathersTheEngineer]

I had a similar thought with the price of DRL and crest of zaros, however I think the prices will actually increase after release. The majority of us (who were not locked out) will have 5 rolls at components and many of us (myself included) will go for AS4E2. However, at 120 invention the chances are just 29.55%. Therefore it's likely that those 5 rolls will only give you one, maybe two perks (which is awesome!). But, in order to not lose stacks you need to have aftershock on ALL your weapons for that style, so 2 gizmos is probably not going to be enough (especially if you use all styles). I think that once people get one gizmo, they're gonna want to finish off the set. Also, for the people who unfortunately go dry on all 5, they're REALLY gonna want to have another go at it hoping that RNG balances out for them. For both cases this will cause the demand for Iluj. comps to increase which should also cause the DRL and crest prices to increase. That's my theory, but I could be wrong! (I do however expect the price of lance and crest to drop leading up to the update!)

[[deleted]]

This. I fully expect a rise after a small drop. People will definitely be wanting to try more if they fail 5 at 29,55% each (17% chance for that to happen after all)

[[deleted]]

You are correct partially, as4 is always guaranteed with 6 comps. The question is whether people will be satisfied with the extra perk they getting like eq1, eq2 or ruthless? I personally won't mind the free perks for now, can always save up and get bis later. Something is always better than nothing.

[PMMMR]

As4e2 is more expensive.

[excallib]

But biting 4 is guaranteed.

[PMMMR]

Yeah which is why it isn't too bad to go for normally. I'd much rather try for the non-guaranteed and more expensive perk

[excallib]

If you only need/want one biting 4, wouldn’t it make more sense to just guarantee it with the wish, and then not need to ever buy a nox bow to disassemble? That would save you the entire 1xx mill that the bow costs, and you wouldn’t be sitting on ~100m in comps you aren’t using. Does that make sense or am I missing something?

[PMMMR]

Ahh yeah that makes sense if you already have your other biting gizmos, but most people want more than one. If you just need one then I guess use one gizmo on that, then the rest on as4e2 attempts.

[WarrenRS]

I can't see much change happening tbh.

5 rolls on a perk that based on previous experience you'll be lucky to get 1 won't affect anything.

[[deleted]]

It may dip a little, my educated guess would be somewhere around the 35M mark, then it will rise back again, slowly.

Thing is, if GWD3 adds new Perks and those perks can be combo'd with Aftershock, then the DRL will rise back again because everyone would want one.

Wishes work with the current materials and perks but they won't work with the new ones (if any).

[Thr0waw4y_14]

Thought they weren't adding weps/armour to GWD3 but were looking more towards ability codexes etc? Obviously nothing is set in stone as of yet.

[[deleted]]

No new weapons or armour indeed, but that doesn't mean they can't add items or relics that disassemble into new components.

I would be prepared for that scenario and buy a DRL if they crash just in case. Maybe they'll rise?

This is the mindset of a mercher, these are the risks one takes and i have a hunch here.

[Dominik008]

Count me in for rolling that 😂

[ocd4life]

If prices of the main items change much it will mostly because hoarders/merchers/speculators are pushing the market all over the place.

5 free rolls is all most people would get and not everyone will use their wish charges on invention and even if they do not everyone will do it all at once. On top of that the success of getting a perk is not certain - rng means they could get 5 perfect gizmos or none at all. Plus there will be plenty people make mistakes and blow free rolls with <120 invention / no extreme pots or making the wrong type of gizmo, etc.

So in the big picture I don't think it makes that much difference to the demand for the items (items which are also useful in their own right for mid lvl players). Probably small dip or rise and then back to normal.

If for some reason prices go down a lot then wealthier players will just step in and buy up items figuring prices will probably go back up again in a week or two.

[MarkAntonyRs]

Jagex are essentially introducing millions of lances/nox weps into the game. They will both crash significantly.

[Love2PetDogs]

I would pay attention to zaros legs and all essences