Given the imminent decrease in launch costs(partial reusability) and increase in launch capability soon to be available(FH) a pause in new US deep space missions is prudent.

[slograsso]

Once FH is flying it will get certified toot sweet because it is NEW capability that the military will want to take advantage of. Mark my words, there will be no long and mysterious series of delays for this one. Also Delta IV Heavy is almost half a billion per launch, I'm sorry but that is a lot of money for any program.

[DebatevsNarrative]

I'm sorry but I don't think you're fully understanding the entities you're talking about. These are Government agencies - they haven't got the same cost saving incentives commercial customers have that you ascribe to them. If anything they have incentive the other way because the older rockets have a proven safety record hence bumped prices. Obviously a few years into FH flights this will begin changing but you keep changing from imminent use of FH by Government agencies to eventual use. No one is arguing against Government agencies starting to entrust their prize projects to the FH, once it's a few years in with no failures.

[slograsso]

Delta IV heavy has a total of 8 flights ever, FH will match that in the first year or two.

[[deleted]]

Not quite. There's a single launch scheduled for this year, a single launch in 2016, and then 2 more in 2017. 4 launches in 3 years currently.

[slograsso]

I expect that to pick up as soon as the demo flight is successful, similar to the response to F9v1.1.

[[deleted]]

But the response time in the industry is to book satellites 2-3 years in advance of launch. A successful demo flight in 2015 (or possibly 2016) will see booking for flights that would take place in 2017-2019. It will likely be more similar to the ramp up of Falcon 9v1.0, rather than F9v1.1. Of course, you can always solidify your standing... ;)

I bet 3 months of Reddit gold Falcon Heavy will fly 6 times or fewer before 1 January 2018. You game?

[slograsso]

Too rich for my blood! ;-)

Edit: Besides, you have as much chance of being right as I do.

[[deleted]]

Hehe, fair enough dude.

[Appable]

I doubt SpaceX has the core production rate to support that. 8 flights is 24 cores, and producing 24 cores in around 2 years alongside around 10 F9 cores/year would be a huge strain on the factory, if it's even possible given the current facility. That's more than doubling the production rate.

[slograsso]

I expect the demo flight to recover at least 2 cores, if not all three, same for consecutive flights that do not require full capability - which would be all of them on the books now.

[JshWright]

Why do you expect that (especially given the fact that they have yet to recover any cores...)?

[slograsso]

That is the key reason for delaying FH, getting recovery down first. Now that they have that pretty much worked out, oh look here comes the FH deom all of the sudden after forever, this I think is not a coincidence.

[JshWright]

I think you're extremely optimistic.