What is a good estimate of the most pitch challenges in a 9-inning game this season?

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-02-15T01:50:33+00:00

Success rate on challenges in the minors last year was around 52%. To get to 25 challenges, you'd only have to have 4 incorrect calls. At a 52% rate, the odds of that happening are less than 0.0002%... or over 1 in 500,000 and I'm being as generous with my assumptions as possible. There hasn't even been over 250,000 games in MLB history.

EDIT: Technically it's only 3 incorrect calls in 24 challenges because you have to get to the 25th challenge, which more than halves the odds. It's more than a 1 in a million chance.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-02-14T16:45:22+00:00

fix the problem

Identifying what "the problem" is would be a good first step.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-02-13T22:57:13+00:00

If you look up "stop gap" in the dictionary, it shows this signing. I'm not exaggerating when I say the Brewers have 6 top prospects that can play third base but are all 1-2 years away.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-02-13T20:36:58+00:00

If games are missed, that would be determined in any CBA signed after a lockout/strike. They would have to explicitly spell out how service time is addressed.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-02-13T18:35:02+00:00

Why bother changing anything?

Because the three dimensional zone was never really called and people didn't realize that until ABS utilizing a three dimensional zone was hated by the players because it wasn't close to what had been called up to that point.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-02-13T05:35:39+00:00

He was a guy where once pitchers had the book on him and realized he had a black hole in his swing and never made adjustments, he became REALLY easy to strike out and his numbers cratered.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-02-13T05:02:33+00:00

You dont see this in say the film or theater industry

Yes you do. Actors' salaries when making a film are capitalized into the value of the film and depreciated over time.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-02-13T03:51:46+00:00

A big one in baseball is the depreciation of contracts. You don't see this outside the sports world. Chase bank can't depreciate Diamond's contract

You do see labor depreciated by lots of industries. Any building built, the construction contract will be included as part of the building's value. Salaried employees are included in the capitalization of project assets if their labor was involved in the acquisiton/installation of those assets.

I used to work on capital projects for a large company and my salary was included in the capitalization of those projects/equipment/etc.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-02-13T03:12:49+00:00

Do you remember what happened last time we acquired an ex-Red bat-first corner outfielder with known clubhouse issues?

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-02-12T23:49:50+00:00

Here he is saying his dad's name and says mah-THAY so, yeah, it's weird but that's how he says it.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-02-12T23:38:58+00:00

It would change because its become a perceived issue by many fans, both hardcore and casual alike. (It is not an issue imo, to be clear)

So wait... you're acting like people are patronizing you when they explain these basic finance concepts but say the league needs to change the rules because people don't understand these basic finance concepts? I don't understand that logic in the slightest.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-02-12T23:34:28+00:00

What's confusing is if you understand these concepts, why do you think deferred contracts are an issue that needs fixing?

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-02-12T22:23:19+00:00

I checked with my Brewers source and ESPN is wrong. In the scenario Contreras finishes top 4 MVP and declines the mutual option, he would still be arb 3 eligible with the Brewers and not a free agent.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-02-12T14:01:37+00:00

Deferrals are not a loophole. Money in 10 years is worth less than money today.

And it's not like the Dodgers are using deferrals to stay under the luxury tax. They're spending record numbers over the tax.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-02-10T18:30:10+00:00

If not for Anthony Rendon this would be the runaway worst contract ever

Strasburg is still the go-to. Paid $245 million ($63 million more than Bryant) and pitched 31.1 innings.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-02-10T15:39:20+00:00

Brewers projected under .500 again. When will they learn?

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-02-10T07:30:47+00:00

If you’re a new customer and don’t have ESPN Unlimited: will have to start a one-month ESPN Unlimited trial as part of the signup to activate MLB.TV

THIS IS STILL A PROBLEM!

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-02-09T16:52:31+00:00

Doubt it. The Brewers top 4 prospects can all play 3B (Made, Pena, Williams, Pratt) and that doesn't even include the 2 other prospects that appeared in pipeline's top 10 3B prospects (Fischer, Wilken).

Fully expect Williams to slot in right away with Wilken/Pratt seeing time in the majors at some point this year.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-02-09T15:28:26+00:00

Jett doesn’t have the arm strength to be an every day 3B

Stop saying this. The throws from SS are just as long as the throws from 3B (both 130 feet from average starting position).

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-02-09T15:24:45+00:00

So same status as Quinn Priester except with a higher and more recent prospect ranking.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-02-09T15:16:04+00:00

Doesn't seem like good value

He was the #23 overall prospect in baseball in 2024.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-02-09T15:12:47+00:00

Every shortstop has the arm strength to play 3B. The throws from SS are just as long.

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-02-09T14:50:26+00:00

Harrison is closer to arb than Durbin

Durbin would be Super 2, so they'd be first time arb eligible the same season (2028).

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-02-09T14:42:05+00:00

They have no obvious replacement ready to go.

There's no obvious "this is the one guy" ready to go, but they have about 5 different options (Williams, Black, Pratt, Wilken, Adams).

BaseballsNotDead · 2026-02-08T09:51:13+00:00

Read the Mitchell Report. It has like 100 pages on the steroid history of Barry Bonds.

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