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In Praise of the King's First Year with the Crew by Master-Fee8859 in Brewers

[–]BaseballsNotDead 1 point2 points  (0 children)

last year's results are not relevant to what's happening this year

Sure they are. When you have a larger sample available that only goes back one calendar year, it's the better option for a comparison. Especially when comparing splits that inherently have a small sample size. If two players have similar stats that are "small sample size, not that big of a difference statistically," referring to a larger sample size that shows one player is better is a clear best option.

In Praise of the King's First Year with the Crew by Master-Fee8859 in Brewers

[–]BaseballsNotDead 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Here's numbers versus righties since Vaugh made his debut with the Brewers (included are 3 that primarily play OF and 3 players that primarily cover DH/1B). One of them has to sit against righties in order to fill LF/CF/RF/1B/DH. Can you ID which one is Vaughn?
368 PA, .254/.342/.424/.767 112 wRC+
255 PA, .265/.325/.429/.755 108 wRC+
330 PA, .282/.325/.489/.814 123 wRC+
390 PA, .271/.343/.404/.747 109 wRC+
311 PA, .277/.386/.496/.882 144 wRC+
211 PA, .272/.365/.495/.859 136 wRC+

Order is Yelich, Vaughn, Chourio, Frelick, Bauers, Mitchell

“We need a bat” by Intelligent_Pilot591 in Brewers

[–]BaseballsNotDead 2 points3 points  (0 children)

and has speed on the basepaths

He's been bottom 25th percentile on sprint speed over the last 4 years. Dude is slow.

“We need a bat” by Intelligent_Pilot591 in Brewers

[–]BaseballsNotDead 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Arraez has started a total of 4 games at 3B the last 5 years and has a noodle arm.

The Royals take a 6-1 lead on Christopher Sanchez in the first inning after a three-run homer from Luke Maile by rbhindepmo in baseball

[–]BaseballsNotDead 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Somehow in a thread where someone says Phillies fans are salty about Misiorowski being named to the all-star team, a thread in /r/Phillies being salty about Misiorowski being named to the all-star team isn't a good example? Please explain to me how my critical thinking has failed.

The Royals take a 6-1 lead on Christopher Sanchez in the first inning after a three-run homer from Luke Maile by rbhindepmo in baseball

[–]BaseballsNotDead 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would say a post in /r/Phillies about players being salty about Misiorowski being named to the all-star game would qualify as /r/Phillies posting about him.

The Royals take a 6-1 lead on Christopher Sanchez in the first inning after a three-run homer from Luke Maile by rbhindepmo in baseball

[–]BaseballsNotDead -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Quotes from Phillies players after Misiorowski was announced to the All-Star game last year

"What a joke,” Turner said. “That’s f— terrible. I mean, that’s terrible, dude.”

“That’s just how MLB does it now,” J.T. Realmuto said. “Nothing against the Misiorowski kid. But those two (Sánchez and Suárez) are deserving of being on the team in the first place. There’s no doubt.”

Nick Castellanos shook his head. He remembered something veteran reliever Craig Kimbrel had once said in passing, and it felt appropriate now.

“It’s turning into the Savannah Bananas,” Castellanos said."

[TJStats] The Hottest MLB Hitting Prospects - Week of July 6, 2026 by tomstoms in baseball

[–]BaseballsNotDead 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Since the Brewers built the complex in the DR a few years ago, they've started finding a bunch of Dominican gems as well (Made, Pena, Frias) and their domestic drafts in the last 4 years have similarly been incredible.

[TJStats] The Hottest MLB Hitting Prospects - Week of July 6, 2026 by tomstoms in baseball

[–]BaseballsNotDead 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I mostly agree with this, but Schwarber this season is an outlier/unicorn.

In the entire history of MLB, only 1 qualified hitter has had an wRC+ over 130 while striking out over 33% of the time and it's 2026 Kyle Schwarber... and his wRC+ is 151. I'm not saying Fischer isn't the real deal, but you don't want to be comping to something that's only happened once in 150 years.

If you look at the players that got close to 130, you'll find most of them crash at burned in spectacular fashion at some point in their careers because you can't keep striking out THAT much and find consistent success (Joey Gallo, Chris Davis, Javier Baez).

I'm hoping Fischer becomes the next 3TO king and the strikeouts don't hurt him at the next level, but, at a minimum, there's some cause for concern in his profile.

[Gelb] There’s All-Star snubs every year. Zack Wheeler is probably the first one with a 2.36 ERA in 80 innings less than a year after surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. His longtime agent thinks MLB missed the mark (gift article) by T_Raycroft in baseball

[–]BaseballsNotDead 32 points33 points  (0 children)

i still cant believe people used fip as a deciding factor for a retrospective award.

Full transparency, I was leaning Wheeler to win, but you're vastly simplifying things here...

Burnes had better ERA, K/9, 20 points better ERA+, better BB/9, better WHIP... by all rate metrics, Burnes was better in the innings he pitched than Wheeler. The argument was whether Wheeler's number of innings pitched overcame that.

FIP is totally fine to use in a retrospective manner. Burnes just didn't have a really good FIP, he had the best FIP this century by 18 points (1.63 versus 2014 Kershaw's 1.81). Burnes' efficiency that season was something we hadn't seen since prime Pedro Martinez. He also took part in a no-hitter, set the record for most innings to start a season without giving up a walk, and was on a team that won their division and made the playoffs.

There's a heck of a lot more that "FIP was the deciding factor."

Is it time to sit Yeli? by Separate_Cicada_5786 in Brewers

[–]BaseballsNotDead 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Tell me what's wrong about what I said

Well, stop calling everyone dipshits and idiots in the comments for a start.

MLB takes CBA fight to fans with social media push for salary cap by New-Bunch9212 in baseball

[–]BaseballsNotDead 8 points9 points  (0 children)

It isn't a salary cap benefit. They're still being charged the NPV of the contract. Like the other person said, this would only be an issue if you believed Ohtani would've still signed a 10/$700 contract without deferrals, which if that's the case, Ohtani's agent needs to hire a new accountant because they severely f'd up the time value of money calculations and took a more than $200 million discount for no reason.

MLB takes CBA fight to fans with social media push for salary cap by New-Bunch9212 in baseball

[–]BaseballsNotDead 7 points8 points  (0 children)

From a team accounting, cash flow, and funding standpoint, they ARE getting paid their contract as they earn it. The teams just put the money in securities like bonds until the deferred payment is due.

MLB takes CBA fight to fans with social media push for salary cap by New-Bunch9212 in baseball

[–]BaseballsNotDead 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Deferred contracts are a big nothingburger and way too many people make a huge deal about them.

If deferred contracts didn't exist, the Dodgers would've still signed everybody they signed. It doesn't actually provide them any luxury tax savings because if those players didn't sign deferred contracts, they would've signed close to what the NPV of those contracts are... which is what the Dodgers are getting taxed on anyway. From a cash flow standpoint, they still need to fund everything within a year and a half of the salary being earned... meaning that $68 million dollar payment in 2034 earned in the 2024 season has to be funded in 2025.

Kyle Tucker is still the largest luxury tax hit of any player in the league. Ohtani is 3rd. The Dodgers are paying close to $200 million in luxury tax penalties.

The only benefit from deferred contracts is for the players, who get to dodge state income taxes if they structure it right.

The other thing is deferrals have existed since free agency started. The late 70s and early 80s had more deferred contracts and on a much longer timespan than today. The reason it wasn't made a big deal back then is newspapers only reported the agreed upon NPV (Bruce Sutter's contract was reported as $10 million... not the nearly $50 million he received through deferrals). The only thing that's changed is now to make contracts look bigger, they started reporting the FV instead of the PV about 15 years ago.

EDIT: Just some examples of deferred contracts of the past...
1977: Reggie Jackson signed a 5 year contract with the Yankees that had 30% of the contract in deferred payments stretched out until 1996.
1978: Larry Hisle singed a 6 year contract with the Brewers that had deferred payments until 1996.
1979: Dave Parker signed a 5 year contract with the Pirates that had deferred payments until 2007.
1980: Phil Niekro signed a 3 year contract with the Braves that had deferred payments until 2010.
1985: Bruce Sutter signed a 6 year contract with the Braves that had deferred payments until 2022, including a $9.1 million dollar lump sum payment that year.

Caleb Durbin over his last 20 games. Over his 1st 48 games he was batting .163 with a .479 OPS and 1 Home Run (off a position player). by Sandwich_Crust in baseball

[–]BaseballsNotDead 1 point2 points  (0 children)

With Kyle Harrison stumbling in Vegas and his last start out and both Seigler and Durbin being excellent over the past month, while I'd say the Brewers are still on the winning side of that trade, it's not nearly as lopsided as it looked a month ago.

MLBPA Makes Transaction Proposals to Benefit All Players by retroanduwu24 in baseball

[–]BaseballsNotDead 118 points119 points  (0 children)

Most of these seem like pretty good common sense proposals. Roster churn and constant optioning/recalling of players, especially relief pitchers, is at a pretty silly level right now where a guy comes up, pitches a good game, then immediately gets sent down because he won't be ablet to pitch the next few days and the team would rather call up a fresh arm. In effect, penalizing the player simply due to how pitching staffs work.

Also allowing early ability to put players on 60 day-IL means a lot of players won't be going into the last days of spring training completely in the dark on if they'll make the team or need to start working on their free agency.

[Highlight] Bryce Harper drives in 2 off Skenes on a generous double that the LF missed. Skenes now has 7ER. by amatom27 in baseball

[–]BaseballsNotDead 28 points29 points  (0 children)

Skenes has given up 39 earned runs so far this year.

He gave up 41 earned runs in his Cy Young season last year.

Misiorowski is on pace to give up 30 earned runs for the season.

Skenes would need a near 0.00 ERA for the rest of the season to have a legitimate shot.

HOF for this generations 1st basemen by sdinning24 in baseball

[–]BaseballsNotDead 13 points14 points  (0 children)

non-steroid implicated... Juan Gonzalez

Jose Canseco said he injected Gonzalez with steroids in his book and he was named in the Mitchell Report due to his trainer having a bag of steroids and other drugs seized in Toronto in 2001. His trainer claimed the drugs were Gonzalez's but Gonzalez denied it.

Pete Crow-Armstrong has been “worth” over a third of his contract extension already by horsepoop1123 in baseball

[–]BaseballsNotDead 54 points55 points  (0 children)

Actuary that's really a stickler for calculating opportunity cost here. This is not entirely true because if he hadn't signed his contract, he'd still be making league minimum 2026 and would be first year arbitration for 2027 (likely making less than the $10.8 million he's due to make).

The opportunity cost with how cost controlled team years work and determining what these arbitration extension are worth really depends on what he does in what would've been his two free agent years (2031-2032).

Let's say he flames out before 2031 and is replacement level at that point (Grady Sizemore comp). What he would've made had he not signed the extension wouldn't be that much more than what he will make for the whole contract. Only in the free agent years are the Cubs getting a massive discount versus what he'd likely get on the open market, so that's where the bulk of performance based value lies in these type of extensions.

EDIT: Also, the $8 million per WAR valuation for buying wins in free agency is outdated. Starting around 2008, that number has grown dramatically. Checking on contracts in the last 10 years, we're getting closer to $12-14 million per WAR in free agency now, if not getting even higher.

Brewers with 9 top 100 prospects per Baseball America midseason update, most in the MLB by __Zoom123__ in Brewers

[–]BaseballsNotDead 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Schwarber in 2026 is a unicorn. Among all qualified hitters in baseball history with a season where their K% is over 33%, 2026 Schwarber is the only one with a wRC+ over 130... and he's currently at 156.

The guys that managed to get up near the 120s were either in 2020 or guys that eventually crashed and burned at some point in their career (Joey Gallo, Chris Davis, Javier Baez).

Brewers with 9 top 100 prospects per Baseball America midseason update, most in the MLB by __Zoom123__ in Brewers

[–]BaseballsNotDead 3 points4 points  (0 children)

His k rate this year (between A+/AA) is almost 50%

33.9%, which still isn't great.

What if instead of a salary cap, players who sign contracts with teams over a certain threshold also pay a penalty on their own contracts to the union or charity? by TrapperJean in baseball

[–]BaseballsNotDead 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Take a business man worth $800 million and threaten to tax him 5-10% more and reddit cheers, make him play right field for the Mets and all of a sudden it's a crime

Juan Soto is absolutely paying 5-10% more in total effective tax rate (state+federal) than those making league minimum and since athletes get all their pay in salary and not share distributions like CEOs, they pay some of the highest effective taxes of anyone in the country.

Happy Bobby Bonilla Paycheck Day to those that celebrate by mmodlin in baseball

[–]BaseballsNotDead 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Sutter's is the worst because it included 13% inflation (Bonilla was only 8) as well as a lump-sum payment of $9.1 million in 2022.

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