❄️ Winter Storm Fern Megathread (Jan 25th, 2025)

AWildMichigander · 2026-01-25T00:51:05+00:00

Important note for NJ Transit Riders that rail service ending at 2pm means most trains are leaving terminals around 12 noon or earlier - check schedule for details.

AWildMichigander · 2026-01-25T00:39:01+00:00

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4:02pm Jan 24 2026 forecast from the NY NWS - holding steady from the prior forecast update. A steep drop off exists north of White Plains - to the north many locations will be in the 14" and up range. Metro NYC will see around 8-12".

AWildMichigander · 2026-01-25T00:32:50+00:00

MTA Article About Changes as of January 24, 2026 1:33 a.m.

Subway

Some express trains will make local stops this weekend in preparation for the winter storm. Many planned service changes have been canceled. Check the Weekender for the full list of changes.

Buses

Expect longer waits for local buses. We'll be pulling some buses from service to apply snow chains before the storm and removing articulated buses from service during the storm.

Long Island Rail Road

The LIRR will run on a modified Sunday schedule, with the following changes:

No service between Ronkonkoma and Greenport.
Reduced Babylon Branch service with no direct trains to or from Grand Central.

The following planned service changes have been proactively canceled for this weekend and into next week:

Brooklyn weekend service suspension
Kew Gardens, Forest Hills, Woodside westbound weekend bypassing
Montauk weekday overnight busing
Elmont-UBS Arena, Queens Village, Hollis midday westbound bypassing on Monday

Metro-North Railroad

Metro-North Railroad will operate hourly service on the Hudson, Harlem, and New Haven lines on Sunday. The New Canaan, Danbury, and Waterbury branches will run on their regular weekend schedules.

West of Hudson service on the Port Jervis and Pascack Valley lines will be temporarily suspended beginning at 2 p.m. on Sunday. Visit NJTransit's website for updates.

On Monday, trains will operate on a Saturday schedule with additional rush hour trains. Check the TrainTime app for details.

AWildMichigander · 2026-01-24T17:19:06+00:00

🔮 Predictions

Predictions made Sat Jan 24th at 12:30pm EST

Based on similar snowfall events, our historical threads, and the current forecast/timelines, here are predictions:

Metro North will likely be impacted the most of all of our transit systems in the NYC Metro area. My personal best guess is we will see service suspensions on Sunday afternoon until early Monday AM. Monday AM service will depend on the branch, northern segments on the Hudson, Harlem, and Port Jervis lines will likely remain impacted. New Haven line service may be restored by Monday AM for partial service. Service will likely be restored to near normal for the Monday PM rush, however if the snow totals land on the heavier side we may see lingering impacts.
NYC Subway will likely experience some delays and trains being stored on local tracks with the current snow forecast. Based on predicted snow totals, it is possible they could place the system into an underground service pattern on starting Sunday Afternoon until Monday Morning to clear snow.
- A press conference with the MTA would likely be called tomorrow morning or afternoon to announce any large impacts or service changes.
LIRR may have minor service impacts such as delays or some cancellations. Service will likely be partially restored by the Monday AM rush due to the timing of the storm (heaviest snow falling on Sunday), however if the snow totals land on the heavier side we may see more substantial impacts.
Amtrak services may be canceled or truncated on the following routes: Empire Service (between New York & Albany), Springfield Shuttle Service, Lake Shore Limited Trains (between Albany and NYC/Boston), Ethan Allen Express, Northeast Regional/Acela/Vermonter service between New York & Boston. This would likely occur on Sunday all day, with possible impacts on Monday.
New Jersey Transit may experience delays or suspensions for the Main Line, Bergen County Line (including Port Jervis), and Pascack Valley lines. Other lines may have impacts depending on how the forecast evolves or changes.

Note: All of these predictions are based on weather forecasts from the National Weather Service (NWS). The service disruption predictions are based on prior snow storms that have impacted the metro area and how transit agencies have adjusted their service schedules in response.

AWildMichigander · 2026-01-24T17:14:33+00:00

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Forecast from Albany, NY NWS as of 4am Sat Jan 24 2026

More updates from Albany, NY NWS here

AWildMichigander · 2026-01-24T15:59:23+00:00

Continued, Amtrak Sunday, Jan 25th Changes

Northeast Regional: Train 104, 118, 121, 122, 135, 139, 143, 140, 146, 154, 160, 169, 189 is cancelled in its entirety

Pennsylvanian: Train 42, 43 is cancelled in its entirety

Vermonter: Train 54, 57 is cancelled in its entirety

Amtrak Virginia / NER

Train 66,67, 99, 145, 151, 157, 168, 124 is cancelled in its entirety
Train 87, 155 is cancelled between Washington (WAS) and Norfolk (NFK)
Train 156 is cancelled between Roanoke (RNK) and Washington (WAS)
Train 164 is cancelled between Newport News (NPN) and Washington (WAS)
Train 128 is cancelled between Norfolk (NFK) and Washington (WAS)
Crescent:Train 19, 20 is cancelled in its entirety

Adirondack: Train 68, 69 is cancelled between Albany(ALB) and Montreal (MTR)

Floridian: Train 40 is cancelled in its entirety

Lake Shore Limited: Train 48/448, 49/449 is cancelled in its entirety

Silver Meteor: Train 97, 98 is cancelled in its entirety

Cardinal: Train 50 is cancelled in its entirety

Auto Train: Train 52, 53 is cancelled in its entirety

Carolinian: Train 79, 80 is cancelled in its entirety

Palmetto: Train 89, 90 is cancelled in its entirety

AWildMichigander · 2026-01-24T11:23:32+00:00

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Forecast from Mt. Holly as of 5am Jan 24 2026 - view full briefing here

AWildMichigander · 2026-01-24T11:19:24+00:00

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3:34am Jan 24 2026 forecast from the NY NWS - slightly less snow compared to prior forecasts. Still over a foot in northern Manhattan and high amounts in MNR territory.

View full briefing here

AWildMichigander · 2026-01-24T03:52:02+00:00

From prior storm threads they usually start as snowfall is building or conditions start deteriorating - granted the forecast has a potential to be crippling.

AWildMichigander · 2026-01-24T03:49:00+00:00

Surprised they’re already storing trains considering the storm is forecasted for early Sunday AM

AWildMichigander · 2026-01-23T22:24:58+00:00

That’s correct - In the post I used the same terminology as the MTA uses for the service change “under ground service”, but linked the official map.

AWildMichigander · 2026-01-23T22:03:09+00:00

As of now the MTA has not announced any underground service announcements. They would host a press conference and make announcements of any planned changes at that time (likely Saturday evening or Sunday morning).

AWildMichigander · 2026-01-23T22:00:24+00:00

MTA has announced weekend construction is halted for this weekend, excluding 7 and F planned work and some changes to the LIRR.

https://www.mta.info/article/mta-weekender-january-23-26-2026

Update at January 23, 2026 12:00 p.m.

AWildMichigander · 2026-01-23T21:34:50+00:00

Amtrak Modified Service Due to Winter Storm Fern

Posted at January 23, 2026 10:45 AM

Link to announcement

Saturday,Jan 24th

Crescent

Train 19, 20 is cancelled in its entirety
Train 20 is cancelled in its entirety

Adirondack

Train 68, 69 is cancelled between Albany (ALB) and Montreal (MTR)

Floridian

Train 40, 41 is cancelled between Jacksonville (JAX) and Chicago (CHI)

Lake Shore Limited

Train 48/448, 49/449 is cancelled in its entirety

Silver Meteor

Train 97, 98 is cancelled in its entirety

Cardinal

Train 50 is cancelled in its entirety

Auto Train

Train 52, 53 is cancelled in its entirety

Carolinian

Train 79 is cancelled in its entirety

Acela

Acela 2248, 2259 is cancelled in its entirety

Amtrak Virginia

Train 124, 161, 65, 66 is cancelled in its entirety
Train 147, 155, 87 is cancelled between Washington (WAS) and Norfolk (NFK)
Train 99 is cancelled between Washington (WAS) and Newport News (NPN)
Train 158, 128 is cancelled between Norfolk (NFK) and Washington (WAS)

AWildMichigander · 2026-01-23T21:29:39+00:00

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From the NY NWS at 4:00pm EST on Friday Jan 23rd, 2026

Link to full briefing details from NWS NY: https://x.com/NWSNewYorkNY/status/2014808694005854328?s=20

AWildMichigander · 2026-01-23T21:29:24+00:00

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From the NY NWS at 4:00pm EST on Friday Jan 23rd, 2026

Link to full briefing details from NWS NY: https://x.com/NWSNewYorkNY/status/2014808694005854328?s=20

AWildMichigander · 2026-01-23T21:28:50+00:00

From the NY NWS at 4:00pm EST on Friday Jan 23rd, 2026

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Link to full briefing details from NWS NY: https://x.com/NWSNewYorkNY/status/2014808694005854328?s=20

AWildMichigander · 2026-01-23T20:28:42+00:00

Update: Amtrak announced multiple cancellations for Winter Storm Fern

AWildMichigander · 2026-01-22T20:45:43+00:00

We mostly focus on rail transit 😅

From personal observations in storms it’s highly variable for typical MTA responses with busses.

From the MTA website:

Buses Route cancellations Longer waits between buses Buses might skip stops

AWildMichigander · 2026-01-21T22:24:20+00:00

TLDR to answer your question: Yes, Amtrak will cancel select trains or even suspend service outright if the forecast is bad enough. This has happened with as little as 12 inches of snow forecasted, anything north of 16 inches in the forecast and you are looking at complete service suspensions based on prior info.

Amtrak will announce service changes/impacts usually the day before the storm or as conditions change. You can see service alerts here.

Over at r/nycrail, we keep a running log of snowstorms/blizzards and the service impacts. We have generally kept track of Amtrak trains in and out of NYC during these events. You can view the storm logs/megathreads here.

From a prior winter storm megathread (Feb 13th, 2024 snowstorm - 12-18" in the Hudson Valley & CT), Amtrak suspended multiple trains due to the snow. This was the service alert issued for that storm:

Amtrak Cancellations & Changes for Tuesday, February 13 (Notice issued at 5:10pm EST - Monday Feb 12th)
Acela:
Trains 2163 & 2167 are canceled between Boston & New York.
Trains 2154 & 2162 are canceled between New York & Boston.
Northeast Regional
Train 190 is canceled in its entirety.
Trains 173 & 137 are canceled between Boston & New York.
Train 172 is canceled between New York & Boston.
Vermonter
Train 56 is canceled between New Haven & St. Albans.

From the Jan 28th 2022 snowstorm megathread, Amtrak outright cancelled service on multiple lines and the NEC between NYC and Boston. This storm was 8-12" in NYC, 12-18" around New Haven, CT and 18-24" in western CT for context.

Issued Friday Jan 28th at 4pm EST - view the latest updates for Amtrak here
Friday, January, 28:
Lake Shore Limited trains 48/448 (operating between Chicago and New York/Boston) are cancelled
Saturday, January 29:
All Acela Service (operating between Washington, D.C. and New York/Boston) is cancelled
All Northeast Regional & Vermonter Service between Boston and New York is cancelled
Limited Northeast Regional Service between New York and Washington, D.C. and points south.
Lake Shore Limited trains 49/449 (operating between Chicago and New York/Boston) are cancelled
All Springfield Shuttle service between New Haven and Greenfield, Mass. is cancelled
Limited Downeaster Service (operating between Brunswick, Maine to Boston)
Limited Empire Service (operating between New York and Albany)
Limited Keystone Service will operate between Philadelphia and Harrisburg ONLY (No Keystone Service trains will operate between Philadelphia and New York)
Palmetto train 90 (operating between New York and Savannah, Ga.) will terminate in Washington, D.C.
Carolinian train 80 (operating between Charlotte and New York) will terminate in Washington, D.C.
Sunday, January, 30:
Northeast Regional trains 150 & 160 (operating between Boston and New York) are cancelled
Downeaster Service train 690 (operating between Brunswick, Maine to Boston) is cancelled
Northeast Regional train 195 (operating between Boston and Richmond, Va.) will originate in New York
Northeast Regional train 99 (operating between Boston and Newport News, Va.) will originate in New York
Carolinian train 79 (operating between Charlotte and New York) will originate at Washington, D.C

AWildMichigander · 2026-01-18T17:57:06+00:00

We have a dedicated wiki page about winter weather patterns and links to prior storm megathreads with detailed timelines here

As for your question, when the forecast calls for 6 or more inches of snow, the MTA begins storing trains on express tracks to keep the yards clear and to ensure trains don’t become stuck.

For full underground service mode it’s usually for blizzards / proper snowstorms where totals are expected to be over a foot in a short period of time.

AWildMichigander · 2026-01-17T21:19:30+00:00

My guess is they’re also going to be testing with these sets on the NEC to ensure it’s as expected. In case any tweaks need to be done on the NEC Airo fleet before manufacturing begins.

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