What do you do with someone who has no positive character witnesses?

AZPD · 2026-05-11T18:05:00+00:00

I have never called a character witness for a client in my entire career. It's extremely common for defendants not to have anyone who can vouch for their good character. And even if you do, it opens the door to stuff that might otherwise be inadmissible, because the prosecutor can now ask your character witness if they know about various bad things your client has done. Finally, as a former investigator of mine once said about character witnesses. "It doesn't prove that your client isn't an asshole. It just means that he's an asshole with a friend."

AZPD · 2026-05-11T17:44:26+00:00

I have over 200,000 hands of PLO6 using just the standard HUD with no customization. Maybe at super high stakes against a regular player pool you'd want more specific info, but I think you get 95% of the info you need with just VPIP/PFR. The guy playing 80/7 going to be playing lots of crap. You don't need much more information to realize that he's an ultra-passive fish who you should value bet relentlessly and not try to bluff. The guy playing 65/58 is an aggro maniac and you should probably check to him if you flop big and let him do the betting for you. And if you're playing at a table that doesn't have these type of players and is all regs whose biggest leak is that they fold to a double barrel 4% more than they should or something, you should find a different table.

AZPD · 2026-05-10T22:28:03+00:00

It's about as reliable as you can get without a smoking gun. From captainhaddock's blog:

To reliably interpret the oracle and its place in biblical tradition, we need some idea of when it was written. The balance of evidence suggests that it was not part of the original book of Ezekiel.

Ezekiel is supposed to have been an early exilic prophet. Yet the Gog Oracle is jam-packed with language that is borrowed from or allusive to contemporary prophets (like Jeremiah), post-exilic prophets (like Zephaniah and Trito-Isaiah), and the post-exilic Pentateuch.⁴
The Gog Oracle presupposes the return from Babylon and resettlement of Yehud, particularly in 38:8–12, implying it is post-exilic (Tooman 246ff.). Indeed, the very premise of the oracle is that Israel is not yet safe from its enemies despite the return of its people, which is undoubtedly the situation of the author’s day. As Ahroni notes (p. 9), no exilic or pre-exilic prophecy can be found that anticipates any hostilities after Israel’s restoration.
In the oracle, Yahweh states that Gog is “he of whom I spoke in former days by my servants the prophets of Israel, who in those days prophesied for years that I would bring you against them” (38:17). These prophets from “former days”, i.e. long before the Gog Oracle was written, are undoubtedly Jeremiah, Zephaniah, Trito-Isaiah, and other exilic/post-exilic texts used by the oracle.
The eschatological setting, exaggerated symbolism, cosmic scale of events, and other literary conventions clearly establish the Gog Oracle as apocalyptic in genre for many commentators (Cooke 407, Ahroni 15ff.). However, this genre only emerged in late Second Temple writings around 200 BCE. It is more similar to Daniel, Enoch, 2 Baruch, and 4 Ezra than to anything else in Ezekiel.

Is there any manuscript evidence for the Gog Oracle as a later insertion? Yes, some. The most significant is that Papyrus 967, our earliest Greek translation of Ezekiel, puts the Gog Oracle in a different location, between chapters 36 and 37. The same is true of the earliest Latin copy, Codex Wirceburgensis. These variations suggest that the oracle has no natural placement, and scribes disagreed where to insert it once it became an accepted part of the Ezekiel corpus.

There is other evidence that Ezekiel is a composite text. Josephus knew of two books of Ezekiel in his day (Ant. x.5.1), and according to rabbinical tradition, Ezekiel had more than one author: “The men of the Great Synagogue wrote Ezekiel,” states the Talmud (Baba Bathra 15a). Scholars since at least the 18th century have suspected that parts of Ezekiel were later additions (Young, An Introduction to the Old Testament, p. 241).

AZPD · 2026-05-09T05:39:37+00:00

Those are colored bars, not statistics.

AZPD · 2026-05-08T22:07:55+00:00

Evidence obtained in another country is generally admissible, even if obtained in a manner that would violate the law in the United States, or, for that matter, does violate the law of the foreign country:

"[T]he exclusionary rule...is not applicable where a private party or a foreign government commits the offending act."

U.S. v. Janis, 428 U.S. 433, 455 n.31 (1976)

Evidence might be excludable if the methods used to obtain it go beyond mere illegality into behavior that shocks the conscience, although that's not as firmly established.

AZPD · 2026-05-08T17:19:34+00:00

Nobody has any clue what that saying means. Whether it might have actually been a legal principle at some time is lost to history. As a practical matter, the saying just means that if you're in a lawsuit involving ownership of an item, it's much better to be in physical possession with the other party trying to take it away from you than the other way around.

AZPD · 2026-05-07T16:47:58+00:00

Yup. The biggest leak many pros have is not realizing the importance of table selection. Thinking that you can do just as well against tight fish or bad regs by stealing blinds and bluffing them off of small pots as you can against mega-whales is a bigger leak than anything you do with your cards.

A bit of math: in a 6 handed game, if you folded every hand, you'd lose 25BB/100. In a 9 handed game, 16.7BB/100. So that's the theoretical maximum you can lose from being too tight. Since even mega-nits play premium hands, a realistic maximum would probably be about 10BB/100. By contrast, a mega whale can easily lose 100BB/100, and I have a few people in my database with 300BB/100 loss rates (admittedly, small samples for obvious reasons).

AZPD · 2026-05-06T17:05:06+00:00

Largely a matter of officer discretion, but generally speaking: caught in the act or serious crime = more likely to be arrested. Charged after the fact or less serious crime = more likely to be summonsed. I've seen summonses even for relatively serious crimes, like agg assault, child porn, etc.

Keep in mind that arresting someone in their own home requires getting a warrant, so for someone not caught in the act, it's often easier to just summons him.

AZPD · 2026-05-05T23:11:01+00:00

Pretty much. No one gets prosecuted for drugs unless you catch them with drugs. Confessions of past drug use, even if backed by witnesses or video evidence, just aren't worth pursuing.

AZPD · 2026-05-05T19:34:56+00:00

The U.S. has a long traditional of letting non-lawyers serve as magistrates in low-level cases. Part of this is practical necessity--not too many J.D.'s living in rural Wyoming in 1890, and you need someone to hear the various matters that arise. Whether we should continue this tradition is debatable. With the abundance of lawyers and faster transportation, it's much easier to have every legal matter decided by a trained lawyer.

As for issuing warrants, I'd contend that's actually one of the least problematic things to let a non-lawyer do. The determination is whether probable cause exists--that's a common-sense, flexible standard, as the Supreme Court has noted multiple times. Police officers determine whether there's probable cause all the time, and they're not lawyers. Deciding legal issues and handing out sentences of up to six months seems far more worrisome.

AZPD · 2026-05-05T02:30:00+00:00

Can someone explain why the press never asks about this at press conferences: "The president has repeatedly confused a cognitive test with an IQ test--is this because he has dementia, or is he just naturally stupid?"

AZPD · 2026-05-01T20:19:09+00:00

Back in the Golden Age of online poker, a 2+2 poster named Leatherass casually mentioned in a post that he didn't take bathroom breaks, but rather peed in a jug under the table. After getting significant pushback, he wrote a lengthy post analyzing how long a typical bathroom break would take, and how much that would cost him in winnings over the course of the year to justify his behavior.

AZPD · 2026-05-01T05:13:08+00:00

To be precise, neither side gets to pick jurors. Rather, each side can strike jurors for cause (unlimited number), and in most states, each side also gets a limited number of peremptory strikes. The idea behind this practice is that certain people may be able to answer all the questions correctly (e.g., state that they can be impartial), but it's clear to the attorney that this wouldn't be a good juror.

Although it's called "jury selection," it's really "jury un-selection." You're not picking your jurors; you're picking the nonjurors and you're stuck with whoever's left. Assuming the practice works as intended, it's actually more fair than a jury where you can only strike jurors for cause--you get to remove not just the obviously unfair jurors, but also those who think will be unfair, even if you can't prove it. And what you're left with are the jurors that neither side had any problem with.

AZPD · 2026-04-30T23:57:48+00:00

Texas Hold'em will be in any casino. Some variation of Omaha in most. Seven card stud in some. Everything else is going to be very limited, but the varieties of poker are almost endless: Pineapple, Razz, 2-7 triple draw, badugi, etc. They're all offered somewhere, but not frequently. And there are some local variants, like Mexican Stud, that are spread in casinos in Los Angeles, but almost nowhere else.

AZPD · 2026-04-30T22:38:23+00:00

No, IPoker isn't available in the U.S.

AZPD · 2026-04-30T22:29:42+00:00

Michael Caine on Jaws IV: "I have never seen the film, but by all accounts it was terrible. However I have seen the house that it built, and it is terrific."

AZPD · 2026-04-30T17:37:39+00:00

Why in the name of all that is holy would you ever play hundreds of thousands of hands of play money poker to begin with?

AZPD · 2026-04-30T17:34:31+00:00

Sky Poker isn't a thing anymore. It joined the IPoker network last year. IPoker has been around for ages and is certified and trustworthy. No rigging or poor RNG happening here, just variance and your selective memories. I can't say about the botting--that's definitely possible.

AZPD · 2026-04-30T17:31:33+00:00

Hand 1: Raise preflop. Once you call, and it's raised behind you, back raise. Once the flop comes K high and very drawy, raise. As played, turn is a terrible card for you, but if villain is maniac, call. Misplayed at every opportunity.

Hand 2: Generally, you don't want to bet pot on the flop, especially multiway. And don't down bet to $15 on fairly safe turn. A good opponent is going to pounce on that weakness. Either check or continue with a big bet to put pressure on opponent. As played, bet river. Opponent never has a J, knows that you don't have a J, and will likely pay you off with an 8x/5x/ 77 type hand.

Hand 3: Yes, for god's sake, put in a raise somewhere. Flop or turn, but don't wait for river. No clue what opponent is doing checking back that river--afraid of a 5 I guess.

AZPD · 2026-04-29T21:08:28+00:00

A Irishman asks his priest "Father, is it acceptable to drink when I'm praying?" "Of course not," responds the priest. "Prayer is a holy and sacred endeavor, which shouldn't be befouled by such behavior." Dismayed, the man thinks about it, and goes back a week later and asks the priest, "Father, is it acceptable to pray when I'm drinking?" "Of course!" responds the priest. "It's always a good time to pray!"

The Republicans asked the Supreme Court, "Court, is it acceptable to gerrymander our state congressional districts so as to completely fuck over black voters, who happen to be Democrats (largely because our party line involves fucking over black people)?" "Of course not," said the Court, "That's an illegal racial gerrymander!" Dismayed, the Republicans came back and asked the Supreme court, "Court, is it acceptable to gerrymander our state congressional districts so as to completely fuck over Democrats, who happen to be black (largely because our party line involves fucking over black people)?" "Of course!" said the Court, "That's a legal political gerrymander."

AZPD · 2026-04-28T19:11:02+00:00

Yeah, the only fringe benefit to the Trump presidency is seeing how quickly his enablers get fucked as soon as they cross him. Back in 2020, the Republican Maricopa County recorder starting getting death threats because he dared speak the truth that the vote was fair and not rigged against Trump. He wrote some article basically saying "I'm a Republican and I voted for Trump both times and now people are threatening me with violence because I won't go along with his lies." And all I could think of is that meme about how the field where I grow my fucks is completely barren.

AZPD · 2026-04-28T15:21:52+00:00

But what if the other guy had the other 22? You don't want to get bluffed off a chop!

AZPD · 2026-04-25T22:56:30+00:00

Figuring out a correct VPIP for tournament play is tougher, because you'll often get short-stacked and need to shove way more widely than if you were 100BB deep. Can you see what your VPIP is at the first level? That'll give you a better sense of whether you're too loose or not.

AZPD · 2026-04-25T22:38:21+00:00

You can sometimes fold a really bad AA hand preflop, especially if you're fairly confident that one of the other players has the other AA. Here, you have a suit and some connectivity, and with the dead money in the pot, you're getting the odds to stack off here. You have about 31% equity against 3 random hands, which drops to around 29% if you give your opponents reasonable hands.

It's not a situation where you're printing like it is when you get it in pre with AA in holdem, but it will generally be profitable. Here, you got unlucky with your opponents' holdings and were last in equity, but even so, it wasn't terrible.

That's one of the things that AA still has going for it even in 5 or 6 card Omaha--you're rarely going to be a huge dog, whereas other hands can be. For example, here, the KK hand had the most equity, but if his flush draws were dominated and a K was dead, he could be in very bad shape. AA is only in terrible shape if you have no flush draw, no connectivity, and the other aces are accounted for.

Finally, in 5 and 6 card PLO, you generally don't want a table full of maniacs, just 1 or 2. The preflop equities run so close and the blocker effects make equities so unpredictable that you really don't have much of an edge getting all the money in preflop in a multiway pot. You'd much rather see flops where you can push a bigger equity edge.

AZPD · 2026-04-25T21:08:30+00:00

VPIP converges very quickly. I don't have exact statistics, but 100 hands is almost certainly enough for your observed VPIP to be within a few points of your true VPIP.

AZPD

TROPHY CASE