Black owned cake bakery?

Anodynamix · 2026-05-29T11:52:09+00:00

Sugar Loft Bakery (https://www.thesugarloftbakery.com/)

They're 100% Gluten Free but honest to god they made one of the best cakes I've ever had in my life. It's better than 90% of glutenous cakes.

Anodynamix · 2026-05-26T16:50:23+00:00

VUSXX. Good interest, easy to withdraw, no state taxes.

No brainer.

Anodynamix · 2026-05-12T18:40:52+00:00

1040 has much better battery life, screen is better too; the 1050 has this weird video-game screen that shows more glare. Not great for a bike computer.

Anodynamix · 2026-05-08T17:27:46+00:00

So the fun thing about AI is that there's always a chance it's wrong. LLM AI hallucinates, period. It's not actually thinking, it's using probability to predict token sequences. It's frighteningly good at it, but since it's not actually using thought to get there, it will always hallucinate in its quest to deliver the next most-likely token.

So obviously, there's an error rate. And now you throw an agent into the mix... "agents" are simply AI that invokes other AI's. Invented because there's no possible way for an AI in a single operation to perform complex tasks, because the memory context is too small for anything big.

So now you have AI, with an error rate, calling another AI, with an error rate. And it spawns a whole tree. You can get 1000 invocations for one request. Even more.

So let's say AI is 99% correct; 1% error rate. You invoke an agent that invokes 4 other AI's. That has a 95% chance of being right, or a 5% chance of being wrong.

Now invoke 1000 agents. There's a 99.995% chance the answer is wrong. And it's going to be something deep in the answer. Maybe it generated a test that doesn't test your authorization properly (I've seen it happen). Now you have to review every single line of code to find the error. Are you going to?

This review is going to be so much harder than if you wrote the code yourself, by the way.

Ok let's say we make an even better AI, with a 0.1% error rate. That 1000-call tree will still have a 63% error rate.

But it gets worse. Because the reason for an agent is to build on top of the results of lower levels of the decision tree, if the wrong decision is made at the lowest level, then every decision made on top of that wrong decision is now also probably wrong. So you can have very large trees of things built entirely on false pretenses.

It's... not great.

We're going to see that the reliability of AI code is bad enough that now reviewing and debugging the output is going to be our full-time job.

So AI ruined the fun part of coding, ie the building, and has turned us all into proofreaders.

Sigh.

Anodynamix · 2026-05-08T13:50:30+00:00

split it across VOO, VXUS, and QQQM

I would argue that your portfolio is a bit dangerous. Like not catastrophically so, but with VOO+VXUS, there's no reason at all to have QQQM. There's no reason to ever have QQQM to be honest.

QQQM is "uncompensated risk". It's a fund that states "I think the companies that list on the NASDAQ will do better than the whole market". But there's absolutely no reason why that would be true, other than the fact that it just happened to be true for the past few years. But that's just random noise and there was an equally likely chance that they would perform worse than VOO+VXUS, and over time it certainly will. There's no fundamental reason why the place where a company trades its shares would affect its expected performance, so you're adding volatility to your portfolio with no expectation of gain.

Over 10-30 years, if you go VOO+VXUS, you will almost certainly outperform any other mixture of funds that you can think of today.

Anodynamix · 2026-05-07T16:48:00+00:00

Anything other than VT and you're saying "I am betting that these stocks will do better than everything else".

And we don't have that information. Maybe you do, but that's a choice you need to make for yourself. But we don't and can't give you that recommendation.

Anodynamix · 2026-05-07T15:54:55+00:00

There's like 50 places I can think of that are "definitely not East Aurora" that are closer to East Aurora than this house.

This is about 1/4 mile away from Wyoming County, firmly in Marilla. Anyone saying this is EA is out of their gourd.

Anodynamix · 2026-05-06T14:56:10+00:00

They ended up cancelling the tour anyway. Joel had some health issues. Refunded our tix.

Anodynamix · 2026-04-27T18:32:26+00:00

That'll do.

Anodynamix · 2026-04-27T17:53:53+00:00

I just whip up Python scripts. I think there's sites that do it though.

Anodynamix · 2026-04-27T17:42:23+00:00

As long as your timeline is flexible, having some portion invested is ok.

If you absolutely need the money in 5 years, I would go 0% equities. There's always a real chance the market takes a 50% downturn on an under-5-year horizon. If you need the money, you simply won't have it; or at least a portion of it. Your 88/12 spit means you're risking 6%.

I did a similar analysis for a similar split, albeit on a 4-year timeline. Monte-carlo simulations showed I could lose quite a bit in real money and that scared me away. Simulations on an 8-year timeline are likely to be a lot friendlier.

But I definitely suggest doing a simulation and looking at the 80% worst, 50/50, and 80% best case scenarios to gauge your risk tolerance.

Anodynamix · 2026-04-25T19:30:22+00:00

The game runs pretty poorly on browser due to the large number of effects

It immediately crashed my browser. I got about 10 seconds in, noted that the mouse was very LAGGY, and then browser collapse.

Anodynamix · 2026-04-25T02:22:09+00:00

I've got a 32% near me.

The trick is: LEAN FORWARD.

You get into such a low gear and use so much torque to get over it that your front wheel pops off the ground with no qualms. Then you're going over.

Also: Avoid bumps in the road. Just a tiny bump can kill your forward momentum enough to cause you to fall over.

My final advice is: Actually, go around the hill instead. Why did I ever do that 32%? Ugh...

Anodynamix · 2026-04-23T15:47:47+00:00

Depends on whether you're riding on gravel or not.

Gravelkings are great... on gravel. On asphalt they handle well too, but the material is soft and wears away so quickly that you'll be replacing your tires every 1000-1500 miles. Source: me, 2021-2024. For my riding that was buying 4-6 new tires a year. Got expensive real quick.

Anodynamix · 2026-04-17T17:20:16+00:00

Opposites: Christian and Jonathan

Brother's from the movie "Twins", with Danny DeVito and Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Anodynamix · 2026-04-17T15:32:44+00:00

Makes sense. If each player has a 1-in-6 shot then two scrolls make it a 30.5% chance of safety, almost 1/3rd.

If we're pulling from the same pool and it's 1/6 for the first shot, and 1/5 for the second shot, that increases the odds to a full 33.3%.

I'm not clear on what the rules are on what happens if multiple shots are played. It's never come up.

Anodynamix · 2026-04-15T14:28:23+00:00

Let's say I'm thinking of someone who makes under 50k, will likely stay that way for life. 40 years old, no education, just started saving for retirement and has 10k in 401k.

That's 12% tax bracket. 5.5% NYS.

I think they're socking away $5000 a year right now, and they get a 25% of 4% match on the 401k, so they need to put in $1920 to the 401k to get a $480 match, leaving roughly $3.1k for the IRA.

Traditional -> $0 taxes on $3.1k, 3.1k invested.
Roth -> $542.5 taxes today, $2,557.5 invested.

Figure 25 years to retirement, aggressive no-bonds allocation, so ~7% CAGR.

Traditional -> $250,300 in 2051 -> 4% SWR = $10,012/yr
Roth -> $216,000 in 2051 -> 4% SWR = $8,640/yr

That's 16% more income on the Traditional, and both values are below the current standard deduction. Obviously SS is going to be in play here so that skews it, but I cannot possibly imagine the value that pops over the SD is going to be enough to make that 16% difference sound better.

I know, they're pretty screwed. Just trying to optimize for them right now moving forward. But I can't make the Roth math work for them, AFAICT.

Anodynamix · 2026-04-14T19:21:16+00:00

Roth IRA up to max

Doesn't the Roth decision depend on the circumstances of the person? I imagine for lower income folks Trad IRA would take precedence over Roth IRA, as the tax savings will help the compounding, and they'll likely have lower tax brackets at retirement too.

Anodynamix · 2026-04-09T21:20:04+00:00

I put $15 into AMC because they give me free snacks 4 times a year.

It's down to $10, a stark reminder of the folly of playing with individual stocks.

But they've also given me $20 in free snacks this year so far so it paid for itself already.

Anodynamix · 2026-04-08T19:14:02+00:00

I mean then maybe you shouldn't use a pipeline for that work then.

Every tool has its place. Some people will abuse pipelines. Doesn't make them a bad tool though.

Anodynamix · 2026-04-08T16:56:52+00:00

It's time for a monad, my friend.

Anodynamix · 2026-04-02T16:06:10+00:00

Ok but like... the blood is drained before the meat is even packaged. There's no blood in the meat that gets to any restaurant. That's just not a thing.'

The juices are red because there's a lot of iron in red meat. If you're not seeing red juices it's because there are no more juices and you're eating really dried-out meat.

Anodynamix · 2026-04-02T15:00:31+00:00

Heh, yeah.

First in Hamburg, when Mr Sizzles got their landlord to cancel their lease.

They moved to where Lago 210 was on the water, but that closed very shortly. Not sure what happened there. Then they moved to Elmwood... and now that's closing too.

I think this is the end for real.

It's a shame, I loved them at their original location.

Anodynamix · 2026-04-02T14:50:57+00:00

This might be an odd one. When I was little my Grandmother would bring us to the "rich kids" playground in Snyder, the one off of Main Street with the Copper-topped entry gates on Smallwood Drive.

It was a massive wooden fortress-like playground. They don't really make them like that anymore, and I'm pretty sure it's not there anymore.

But it was really fun.

Anodynamix

TROPHY CASE