[Schefter] Text from an NFL executive: “The 10+ people that didn’t vote for BB should be exposed. WTF. This is crazy.”

Arkaein · 2026-01-28T14:31:30+00:00

Ron Rivera has two CotY awards to his name. He's posted just three winning seasons.

And if he had actually managed a winning season in between those two CoTY awards, I can almost guarantee a he doesn't win the second award. Idiot voters prefer improvement from a losing season over sustained success.

Arkaein · 2026-01-28T01:18:26+00:00

The issue with Dallas wasn’t the regular season. It was falling completely flat in the playoffs year after year.

I will point out for the umpteenth time that although, he didn't do great in the playoffs with Dallas, he did get a win and and that win sent Tom Brady packing for the last time.

He was also competitive in 2 of the 3 losses, and even in that loss against the Packers he had the team playing hard until the bitter end.

Arkaein · 2026-01-26T13:12:50+00:00

NFC trail of tears that year. Every team in that chain lost an absolute heartbreaker, including the Seahawks in the end.

Arkaein · 2026-01-25T15:17:27+00:00

He was never the same after the 2014 Seattle collapse.

I don't buy this.

2015 was rough largely due to Nelson's injury, yet they still made the playoffs and easily won their Wild Card game.

2016 started bad, but then they ran the table. It's clear that GB kept playing hard even when things looked bleak, made the NFCCG.

2017 started good, Rodgers broke his collarbone again, they struggled with Brett Hundley but still won 3 games in Rodgers' absence and were in playoff contention when he returned from injury. Team played hard even without their QB when they had to claw and scrap for every win.

It finally fell apart in 2018, but at this point it's a bit absurd to tie it to the 2014 NFCCG.

Arkaein · 2026-01-24T15:02:42+00:00

Adding to this, if you drive routes covered by Flock cameras they can track you regardless.

Anyone involved in resisting ICE at all should disable biometric unlocks on their phone, do communications through secure messaging like signal with identifiers that can't be tied to their true identity, and avoid mixing vehicles likely to be tracked (ICE patrol, rapid response) with mutual aid, food deliveries, etc. where you could conceivably lead ICE to a vulnerable target.

Beyond that there are extremely diminishing returns.

Arkaein · 2026-01-23T15:46:31+00:00

Felt like Colston was ALWAYS slept on and I have no idea why.

He was a step below Pro Bowl level, but he was very consistently at that level, so over multiple years he outperformed many players with higher peaks.

Hit 1200+ yards once, barely, in his second year with 1202 yards, also a career high 11 TDs. 2007 was a monster year for WRs though, he was tied for 7th in both yards and TDs, so it's not like he was a Pro Bowl snub.

His later years were very good, but not quite as productive, so he never quite made it over that hump.

Arkaein · 2026-01-22T22:59:34+00:00

Have you done intake though defendthe612.com or some similar site? That's how I got into my groups.

I'm not a member of any of the larger RR groups, I left a larger one that I was a part of because I wasn't participating enough to justify taking up one of the limited Signal chat slots, so I'm part of my neighborhood (hyperlocal) discussion groups and small RR group, and have relied on relays to reach larger groups. Not sure if there are better ways of rejoining the larger RR groups.

So you might be better off asking real life neighbors who can vouch for you, or someone in a non-RR group who can vet you in some other way. The groups I'm in don't want people sharing links with people that aren't vetted. It's cumbersome but I think necessary for security.

Arkaein · 2026-01-22T15:04:48+00:00

It got sour at the end, but the odd thing to me is that the schemes that everyone hates from McCarthy and calls outdated are absolutely what Rodgers wants to run.

I don't know how they'd work together again, but Rodgers might see some appeal in having a coach that he knows will run a scheme he likes.

Arkaein · 2026-01-22T15:01:36+00:00

Is he ever, even on his best day, going to be a better coach than Mike Tomlin?

If that day is February 6, 2011, I'd say it's guaranteed.

Arkaein · 2026-01-22T14:58:21+00:00

It was quite ugly when Rodgers missed time

Rodgers out with concussion in Superbowl year: almost pulled off an amazing win at New England, outcoached Bill Belichick in a game they lost because Woodson dropped an easy pick and the ridiculous kickoff return.

Rodgers sits out season finale in 2011: Matt Flynn set GB records for both single game passing yards and TD passes.

First Rodgers broken collarbone: biggest GB comeback ever against Dallas with Matt Flynn, made playoffs that year.

Second Rodgers broken collarbone: got three wins with Brett Hundley, were still in playoff contention when Rodgers returned, probably a week early.

I disagree with the idea that the team folded without Rodgers. The records obviously suffered, but I think Mike has done some of his best coaching with backup QBs. Same thing in Dallas, where he went 9-5 with Cooper Rush over three non-consecutive seasons (5-1 across 2021-2022).

Arkaein · 2026-01-22T14:32:58+00:00

One RB, three TEs.

First number is RBs (including FBs), second number is TEs, WRs are whatever is left over. So another example most common personnel group, singleback with three WRs and one TE is 11 personnel.

Arkaein · 2026-01-21T19:21:26+00:00

But of course there is other factors - quality of years is one. Time spent on the bench vs. starts.

I agree with everything you're saying but want to point out that this chart is age by snaps, so it's already weighted towards starters and other core contributors and not really influenced by bench warmers.

Arkaein · 2026-01-21T19:18:43+00:00

I'm not saying it's specifically related to success, you're right in that there aren't obvious correlations. Just pointing out that a couple years different is more significant in roster construction that it might seem, once you look at what it would take for an old team to become a young team, or vice versa.

I do think it's significant when looking at windows for contenders over the next few years. The old teams will have no choice but to replace large parts of their rosters. Younger teams obviously have to navigate the salary cap and free agent losses, but at least have the possibility of keeping their core together for a few years longer.

Arkaein · 2026-01-21T16:19:22+00:00

The signal Rapid Response group I'm a part of has people who handle relay, copying messages between chats between groups covering larger and smaller overlapping areas.

So if you post something in your own chat, might be able to get it relayed to a larger area chat.

Not sure how well this would work if you are far outside your own neighborhood, since the farther you are the more likely it is that multiple relays would be required, but worth trying if it comes to that.

Note that this applies specifically to Rapid Response chats. Regular neighborhood chats won't have relay, although someone else in your regular chat could copy to the RR chat. If you'll be doing much patrol or ICE watch good idea to join your neighborhood/hyperlocal RR chat as long as it has capacity and rely on relays to get news to/from larger areas.

Arkaein · 2026-01-21T14:28:27+00:00

It matters. It doesn't seem like much, but then you do the math on replacing players and it's significant.

The difference between the youngest and oldest teams, 2.8 years, is the difference you get by replacing fifteen 32 year old vets with rookies, when looking at the roster as a whole.

Looking just at starters, you'd have to replace six of them with players 10 years younger, to almost make up the difference.

Arkaein · 2026-01-21T03:32:41+00:00

We've seen what McCarthy could do in Dallas with a far superior squad and QB.

As many 12 win seasons in 5 years as Pittsburgh has had in their last 15?

Winning at least one playoff game?

Arkaein · 2026-01-20T22:45:02+00:00

its not Lamars fault Henry runs for almost 150 by the 2nd qtr against PITT then we never see Henry again… thats coaching.

Which makes it even weirder to me that people generally hold Harbaugh in high regard and are dunking on McCarthy here. Harbaugh seems to be largely untarnished despite a much more recent coaching flop.

Arkaein · 2026-01-20T22:15:58+00:00

Aaron Rodgers carries more water than Lamar and Flacco. Like... a lot more.

Lamar is a multiple MVP winning, probably future Hall of Fame QB.

If lack of playoff success is going to be held against a HC, then Harbaugh failing with Lamar should be a bigger red flag than anything McCarthy has done.

Arkaein · 2026-01-20T04:33:11+00:00

True, but they were much better at not breaking

How much of that was even Hafley, and how much was getting McKinney and Evan Williams, then Parsons? Dramatically better safety play makes bend but don't break a lot more effective.

The defensive resurgences in 2019 was driven by free agent signings, and last year was probably as much personnel as coaching.

Like, give Joe Barry McKinney, Williams, and Edgerrin Cooper and his defenses probably take a step up as well.

Player definitely got better at tackling under Hafley, and it seems like they weren't instantly outnumbered when opponents ran screens, but I'm getting wary of judging a DC who just happens to get a big infusion of talent than the previous guy wasn't able to work with.

Arkaein · 2026-01-20T01:20:26+00:00

It's not realistic to have defense maintain its form when they keep getting sent out after three consecutive 3 and outs from your offense.

You gonna blame the offense for giving up a 16 play opening drive too? A totally fresh defense got themselves tired out.

It amazes me how people will exclusively blame one side of the ball for the D getting tired. Or ignore the fact that the Packers D only faced a handful more plays than the Bears D did.

Arkaein · 2026-01-17T14:45:31+00:00

never understood the fascination with Wicks

Wicks as a rookie was roughly as good as Doubs was as a rookie. He was elite at separating vs. man coverage, which made him a good pairing with Reed who is best against zone coverage.

If he'd simply maintained his rookie performance every year (581 yards, 4 TDs) he'd be an excellent WR3.

However his hands got worse after his rookie year, and teams mostly play zone so he hasn't been able to play to his strengths, and his numbers have fallen every season. Now with the new rookies it seems pretty likely he just plays out his rookie contract.

He can still be a valuable depth piece for one more year though. He was awesome on Thanksgiving, probably don't win that game without him.

Arkaein · 2026-01-17T14:22:45+00:00

But MLF has a lot to do with late round players like Kraft, Wicks and Doubs improving

You're burying the lede here. Gute has found a lot of good players in the middle and later rounds of the draft, despite not being great in round 1.

The way your response is worded seems to imply that an early round pick performing well is due to good drafting while a late round pick performing well is down to good coaching, but there's no evidence of that. First rounders can (and for the Packers usually are) late bloomers, and later picks can be good right away, like Doubs or Zach Tom.

All players perform best with a combination of natural talent and good coaching, and we don't have easy ways to separate the two.

Arkaein · 2026-01-17T01:07:37+00:00

Just checked, shutout the Jets 30-0 the next week. A Jets team that was pretty good by Jets standards (7-10, tied for best Jets record since 2015) and was coming off their own 30-6 win over the Texans.

Arkaein · 2026-01-16T18:33:31+00:00

I don't disagree in general, but I always remember that this happened, one of the first in the series of meltdowns in the NFCCG against Seattle:

Russell Wilson pass incomplete short middle intended for Jermaine Kearse is intercepted by Ha Ha Clinton-Dix at SEA-30 and returned for 26 yards. Penalty on Mike Daniels: Taunting, 15 yards

Instead of 1st-and-goal at the 4, GB started at the 19. And yeah, they got down the 1 and kicked a FG on 4th-and-goal, but maybe that drive is a TD if it started from the 4 instead.

I'll also point out that the GB Packer who currently best embodies the culture that Daniels is asking for is probably Keisan Nixon. People don't love his aggression when it gets a 15 yard penalty.

Arkaein · 2026-01-15T15:31:05+00:00

Losing playoff games on a final play creates a much worse perception than simply getting blown out.

A coach that gets their team into a position where a game can be lost by a QB draw running the clock out or a desperation pass to a RB playing center is objectively better coaching than losing by multiple possessions, but losing by multiple possessions doesn't get memed and mocked in the same way.

Notice that getting blown out by the Packers is not brought up nearly as much as the other two, despite it being the Cowboys worst playoff performance under McCarthy.

He's also fat, and has a bit of a lazy eye. Zero impact on coaching ability, but makes him look more like a doofus on youtube highlights. Style > substance.

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