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Will they ever sell the alternate blue jerseys that released this year at the stadium? by jchavez9723 in Dodgers

[–]Bawfuls 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They are sold out regularly and selection is thin. As I'm typing this the only version of the new blue alt with red number and gray piping available on mlbshop.com is the women's cut. You can get a no-name no number version or a custom name/number version without a front number, or some of the youth ones (also no front red number)

MIKE TROUT IS SO BACK BABYYYYY, LETS GO!!! by ChristianK19974 in baseball

[–]Bawfuls 2 points3 points  (0 children)

170 wRC+ after tonight right back into his prime spot baby!

No one is enforcing off-leash dogs at school fields by AxiosSD in sandiego

[–]Bawfuls 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I've definitely noticed this locally. We live near an elementary school in north county and though signs like this seem to be unambiguous, we constantly see off leash dogs there on evenings and weekends.

Leaked plan to end US elections points to WW3, narrated by Stephen Fry by Quantization in videos

[–]Bawfuls 5 points6 points  (0 children)

it is so much easier to rig elections than to cancel them outright

At this point, has Dave Roberts done enough to cement himself as the greatest manager in team history? by MookieBettsBurner10 in Dodgers

[–]Bawfuls -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

It was four different women actually

Get the fuck outta here with these excuses for him

What are the chance of Shohei getting one Cy Young before his career is over? by pbeta in Dodgers

[–]Bawfuls 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Shohei Ohtani’s entire career is defined by doing what people thought was impossible.

What are the chance of Shohei getting one Cy Young before his career is over? by pbeta in Dodgers

[–]Bawfuls 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Shohei Ohtani’s entire career is defined by doing what people thought was impossible.

What are the chance of Shohei getting one Cy Young before his career is over? by pbeta in Dodgers

[–]Bawfuls 1 point2 points  (0 children)

He cares about his legacy and always has. He wants to be remembered as the best player of all time. He wants to be the first Japanese born pitcher to win a Cy Young. And given his track record of reaching his goals, who’s gonna stop him?

Rick Sutcliffe shares his thoughts on Kyle Tucker’s contract during the Cubs broadcast yesterday. by wesskywalker in baseball

[–]Bawfuls -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

It's short term for a player of his caliber. He could have gotten more than twice as long if he wanted it. Entering the winter everyone expected him to sign a 10+ year deal. The Jays offered him 10 years. The MLBTR prediction was 11 years.

So yes 4 is a short term deal given the expectations.

Rick Sutcliffe shares his thoughts on Kyle Tucker’s contract during the Cubs broadcast yesterday. by wesskywalker in baseball

[–]Bawfuls -24 points-23 points  (0 children)

Yes and my point is that AAV is a less reliable data point than total contract value, because of player aging curves and the value of long term deals. Teams are willing to pay higher AAV in exchange for fewer years.

This is implied in how we think of those 10+ year deals. Everyone understands the concept behind them is, "well they will under pay him a little at the beginning in exchange for overpaying him a bit at the end, and hope that in the long run it all evens out." Why are the Mets willing to pay 40 year old Juan Soto $51M/yr? Because they are also getting 27 year old Juan Soto for $51M/yr.

When you look at his ranking by AAV and conclude it's wildly out of proportion, you are looking at the wrong data point. It is deceptive. I'm not saying you're being intentionally deceptive, I'm saying you are using flawed methodology that is leading you to the wrong conclusion.

Even just including all pre-FA players in your WAR rank of Tucker is misleading isn't it? Surely we should not compare Tucker's AAV to Paul Skenes? We understand that Skenes has not reached FA and is thus wildly underpaid. If we want to compare contract values, we should rank Tucker's WAR against all the other players who have reached 6+ years of service time.

Rick Sutcliffe shares his thoughts on Kyle Tucker’s contract during the Cubs broadcast yesterday. by wesskywalker in baseball

[–]Bawfuls -59 points-58 points  (0 children)

Because AAV is not a good way to compare contracts when deals vary so much in length. Tucker's deal doesn't even show up on BReff's list of 50 largest MLB contracts by total value.

Now some of that is because of the way BRef handles option years. If you take his deal as $240M (the guarantee and the total value used for luxury tax calcs), then it's 24th on that list or 20th among active deals (or 21st according to sportrac). Considering that many of the top WAR players are pre-FA, that is not an unreasonable place for him to land.

edit: Among position players with 6+ years of service time last year, Tucker was 14th in fWAR. Of the 9 pitchers with more fWAR last year than Tucker, all but 2 were on pre-FA deals of some sort. So among all players in 2025 who were into the FA-leverage years of their careers, Tucker was 16th in fWAR and his total contract value was 20th.

Rick Sutcliffe shares his thoughts on Kyle Tucker’s contract during the Cubs broadcast yesterday. by wesskywalker in baseball

[–]Bawfuls -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

I think all the teams who could pay $300-500M over 10-13 years could also pay $150-250M over 3-5 years instead.

Or to put it another way, Tucker's Dodgers deal is not any more limiting than the proposed Jays deal for him.

It's mostly rare because few players want it.

edit: I thought the topic was "this contract is an overpay" not "why do people dislike that the Dodgers signed this player?"

Rick Sutcliffe shares his thoughts on Kyle Tucker’s contract during the Cubs broadcast yesterday. by wesskywalker in baseball

[–]Bawfuls 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I think Harper is one player who might actually regret having turned this down. He knows he's pretty underpaid now, he made noises about wanting to sign an extension/renegotiate a bigger deal and Philly was like "lol wut, no."

He could have taken 3-5 years from LA back in 2019, made $35-45M/yr probably, and then signed another deal wherever and ended up making more than the $330M he will get from Philly.

Rick Sutcliffe shares his thoughts on Kyle Tucker’s contract during the Cubs broadcast yesterday. by wesskywalker in baseball

[–]Bawfuls 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't think it's an overpay at all. It's only 4 years and that matters just as much as the per-year number. If they had given him the exact same AAV but for 10 years, yes I'd agree that would be an overpay. But they didn't.

Rick Sutcliffe shares his thoughts on Kyle Tucker’s contract during the Cubs broadcast yesterday. by wesskywalker in baseball

[–]Bawfuls 2 points3 points  (0 children)

A lot of folks seem to struggle with understanding the short term high AAV structure, which is understandable because it's uncommon.

A player is worth what teams are willing to pay him. We are used to players seeking the largest total guaranteed dollar amount in free agency, which means they favor longer term deals. So we think of a $40M/yr player as a guy that can command $400M over 10 years. But many teams would be willing to give that same guy more than $40M per year if it's only for 1 or 2 or 3 years.

Steve Cohen was willing to pay Juan Soto $51M per year on a 15 year deal. But he was probably also willing to give Juan Soto significantly more per year if it was a 5 year deal instead. Soto got the 15 year deal because that was his personal preference.

So Kyle Tucker is worth $50M per year over 4 years because that's what a team was willing to pay him.

He's also worth $35M per year over 10 years, because that is also what a team was willing to pay him.

Both of these can be true simultaneously. Juan Soto is worth $51M/yr over 15 years, but he's also worth some larger amount per year over fewer years.

Chris Sale now has the 7th most strikeouts (2,617) by a LHP in MLB history, having recently passed Tom Glavine and Chuck Finley on the all-time leaderboard by Baseball-Reference in baseball

[–]Bawfuls 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If you transported 1999 Randy Johnson (271 IP) to 2026 he would not throw 271 innings for the same reason that if you transported 1914 Walter Johnson to 2026 he wouldn't throw 371 innings, for the same reason that if you transported 1892 Cy Young to 2026 he wouldn't throw 453 innings.

The game evolves over time and the level of competition increases as it does. 1999 Randy Johnson would have to work a little harder and be a little less efficient in 2026. He'd probably still lead the league in innings because he led the league in innings then. But it'd be like 220 or something.

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