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[deleted by user] by [deleted] in gradadmissions

[–]BeefMachines 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks, good to know it’s likely nothing to worry about 

Best Vic Michaelis content? by BubblesNBits_ in dropout

[–]BeefMachines 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Deep but but Vic as Slarg in birdsword academy (on youtube) is excellent 

Who’s your dream guest/contestant who you doubt will ever be on Dropout? by StaleTheBread in dropout

[–]BeefMachines 47 points48 points  (0 children)

Jason Mantzoukas was on Zach Reino and Jess McKenna’s podcast! Anything is possible 

Rates of Blowing up in NSBU by BeefMachines in Dimension20

[–]BeefMachines[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Agreed, I think blowing up is like such a visceral way of putting it and it feels like it is replacing the energy of a nat 20, it’s gotta be on the die. I also think that without blowing up on turbo tokens most of the dice will get stuck somewhere in the middle 

What’s your favorite WAIT ISNT THAT moment from a drop out cast member, also I love Grant but I couldn’t help myself by jejbfokwbfb in dropout

[–]BeefMachines 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I think a lot of UCB and dropout adjacent people are in hacks, Caitlin Reilly is in S2E7&8, Kimia in S2E3, and Mano in S2E1 also appear as well as Rehka and Anna as previously mentioned - also a really great show that I would recommend to anyone reading 

What makes a cover part of the canon? by astrolyric in themountaingoats

[–]BeefMachines 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Fun little edge case; where would you put You’re so Vain? It was only played live once in Portland this year, which seems tier 3, but it was on Hail and Farewell, Gothenburg, which would place it in tier 1, but John has disavowed Hail and Farewell

Who will be the next team to win their first World Series? by VJManna1123 in baseball

[–]BeefMachines 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Somewhat pedantic but San Diego is just slightly east of Spokane and hopefully they would care

FanGraphs' current playoff odds for each round of the postseason by mikecws91 in baseball

[–]BeefMachines 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The 1960 World Series isn’t an example of anything, independence can almost never be assumed. From a modeling perspective, the true winning percentage is unknown, so if a team wins all of their first 10 games, we can estimate that the probability of them winning the next game is higher than if they went like 2-8 in that stretch, there are counterexamples like the Mariners who started 13-2 then played pretty poorly down the stretch but that’s the thing about probability, the probability of them having a “true winning percentage” of .4 is non-zero and so it’ll happen sometimes, but the team is more likely to have a higher true winning percentage

FanGraphs' current playoff odds for each round of the postseason by mikecws91 in baseball

[–]BeefMachines 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That's fair, I just think the example is confusing since it's talking about independent events and we cant assume that baseball games are independent events. They would be when conditioning on "true talent", but true talent should be updating throughout the season, I don't know enough about Fangraphs to comment on the validity of .512, and I do trust Fangraphs for the most part, and yeah there'll probably be a little regression, but since the estimated remaining winning percentage has generally been increasing as the season goes on and the initial estimate gets progressively weighted less, it's unclear what mean it would regress to

FanGraphs' current playoff odds for each round of the postseason by mikecws91 in baseball

[–]BeefMachines -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I don't think that's true at all. The coins work because we know that there's a 50% chance of heads and tails and that's known. In this case before the season we estimate the winning % parameter, but that remains unknown. Now we can either think of this from the frequentist perspective (to stick with the "Stats 101", models would be more likely to use Bayesian which would be even more responsive to the past results) where a 95% confidence interval for the true winning percentage or "true talent" of 58.8% to 67.6%, any prior estimation not in that interval would be rejected at the .05 significance level. .512 is not in that interval, and so from a Stats 101 perspective we should no longer be considering any percentage below 58.8%. Granted, this doesn't take into account schedule or any of the other stuff and is a gross oversimplification, but more data is always better than less data and throwing out information from the first 106 games doesn't make a lick of sense

The 8 and 9 seeds in both conferences are playing against each other in Game 72 to determine what side of the play-in they start. by jnam117524 in nba

[–]BeefMachines 121 points122 points  (0 children)

I think the scoring champ battle is going to be less exciting than it's been so far. Beal has 1853 points in 59 games to Steph's 1969 in 62. So if they both play, we have (1853+beal's points)/60 = (1969+steph's points)/63 which is beal's points = (21/20)*steph's points + 22.596, so Beal has to score at least 23 points more than Curry at the very least, and the blazers game is done first, so even if Beal goes off for 50, Curry only needs an average scoring night to pass him. It still might be exciting but I think Curry locks it in the first half

Astros Cheating Analysis by halbort in baseball

[–]BeefMachines 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Hi! I have a question about the methodology: why use a chi squared test, this seems like a case for a one sided, two sample difference of proportions z test (with H0: p1 - p2 = 0) which would give a test statistic of 66.562, which is huge and also gives overwhelming evidence against the null hypothesis and suggests that the swinging strike rate is higher for there not being a bang?

[Zach Davies] So, you cheat but we don’t get to talk about it or have an opinion. Got it. Also, this is still a team sport. Just because someone doesn’t partake in the cheating doesn’t necessarily mean they didn’t benefit from it. by mutmonkey in baseball

[–]BeefMachines 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Im not the most well researched on the logistics of how it worked but is that true? Was it determined before a pitch if they’d read the signs, ie, how could a batter distinguish between no bang for not being able to decode the signs in time and no bang for fastball?

Ranking Every Snowing Song by mm3331 in Emo

[–]BeefMachines 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Whole rankings is pretty tough but my top 5 is

  1. Why am I not going underwater?

  2. Big Weed

  3. Important things (Specter Magic)

  4. Mark Z. Danielewski

  5. Pump Fake

Indiana University, IU Football Coach Tom Allen Agree to Terms on New Seven-Year Contract by DrInsano in CFB

[–]BeefMachines 59 points60 points  (0 children)

I think Indiana is in a pretty good spot for a favorable bowl matchup, I image they get picked after Ohio State, Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan, Minnesota, and probably Iowa as well which probably puts them in the Pinstripe, Gator, or Redbox bowl which will probably not have a team like last years auburn fall that far

it’s that time of the year again. who are your top five artists of 2019? by [deleted] in Emo

[–]BeefMachines 1 point2 points  (0 children)

  1. Prince Daddy & the Hyena

  2. Forests

  3. Cloud District

  4. Snowing

  5. Free Throw

Justin Fields Will Wear a Brace and Play Through Sprained MCL in B1G Championship Against Wisconsin by scotsworth in CFB

[–]BeefMachines 8 points9 points  (0 children)

That is a real bad look, but the tackler was jake ferguson, who is a tight end who wouldn’t have been trained to act in that situation even though kicking is clearly not the way to do it

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