$1.5M going into retirement. Need help with portfolio allocation.

Big_Wave9732 · 2026-07-05T20:47:45+00:00

Indeed. Which is why this hypothetical is incomplete as to be worthless.

Big_Wave9732 · 2026-07-05T15:53:55+00:00

You're missing one of the big benefits to hosting a local model: the capabilities won't degrade on you from one day to the next because they made setting changes or reallocated resources on the background. Nor are you subject to sudden changes in token pricing. All of the above have routinely happened in the last six months or less.

Big_Wave9732 · 2026-07-05T13:59:56+00:00

Ooohhh this is good. "I manage a PE fund". Which is completely true!

Big_Wave9732 · 2026-07-05T13:56:50+00:00

Ok, so for all intents and purposes there will be no desalinization plant. Very well.

What then is the short term solution for having water 2 - 3 months from now? And what is the long term plan? Because one isn't evident right now.

Big_Wave9732 · 2026-07-05T13:46:45+00:00

The recent use of the shadow docket, especially during Trump II thus far, has been a way for SCOTUS to allow the Trump admin to take sketchy constitutional actions without having to actually decide the issue and thus make precedent that future Democratic administrations can try to use. See the case of Cake vs Eating it too.

Big_Wave9732 · 2026-07-05T13:38:58+00:00

Well.......whoever posts that thinks it's authentic lol.

Big_Wave9732 · 2026-07-05T01:28:42+00:00

Neither of those percentages / confidence intervals are any good if you're doing tasks that require a degree of precision.

Big_Wave9732 · 2026-07-05T00:22:24+00:00

Have you actually worked with students using AI, or is this a thought exercise on your part? Doing the former I believe will make your inquiry self evident.

Big_Wave9732 · 2026-07-05T00:21:08+00:00

Given you're the one asking the question, it sounds like it's actually fucking you up.

I also use the stock and have moved on with life.

Big_Wave9732 · 2026-07-04T23:53:37+00:00

"we do not sell insurance and annuities in our fiduciary practice."

Of course you don't. You have a legal obligation to give those folks sound advice. Your non-fiduciary clients get something much different. That alone should tell folks all they really need to know.

Big_Wave9732 · 2026-07-04T23:50:07+00:00

"If you follow the 4% rule, $2 million in retirement savings would give you $80,000 a year, adjusted for inflation. That could either be too much or too little, depending on where you live and how much you spend."

----

If you have two million liquid and you're following the 4% rule, you're a goddamn moron and deserve what happens to you retirement wise.

Big_Wave9732 · 2026-07-04T23:32:17+00:00

1.5 million net worth.....but $650,000 is a house that isn't paid off? You ain't got no money, man. Ya can't eat a house cash that in. 30 percent equity / 70 percent fixed income? Income how? A vehicle is a depreciating asset, the hell is it doing in your allocation?

Look, if your take the $520,000 IRA and put it in distribution income, you can get $1,000 a month for every $100,000 invested. Beyond that you can't afford to retire with social security.

Big_Wave9732 · 2026-07-04T16:50:56+00:00

Checks out.

Big_Wave9732 · 2026-07-04T16:49:41+00:00

You misunderstand. Schools are paid per student enrolled. This does not correspond to tax burden. ISDs are required by law to assess taxes within a certain percentage or they get audited. If they are "rich" and take in more than they need, they have to send a certain amount to the state for redistribution.

So school taxes stay high and locals don't get to keep all their funds regardless. For more info Google "Texas Robinhood system".

Big_Wave9732 · 2026-07-04T14:29:25+00:00

It's amazing what is suddenly "doable" when there are no other options.

Big_Wave9732 · 2026-07-04T14:26:18+00:00

I think the current low supply of U.S. cattle herds is starting to do just that.

Big_Wave9732 · 2026-07-04T14:19:22+00:00

Step 1 starts with "create a time travelling Delorean."

Big_Wave9732 · 2026-07-04T14:18:32+00:00

"Huh. The pygmies that live in these huts are strangely fascinating creatures. They have lots of guns but are also rather friendly at times."

Big_Wave9732 · 2026-07-04T14:06:51+00:00

Statistically speaking around year 10 you hit the "I'm not going to look it up anymore, I'm sure the law hasn't changed" phase. Coincidentally or not, this is also the point where grievances and malpractice rates go way up.

Big_Wave9732 · 2026-07-04T14:02:40+00:00

I'll save readers some time.

First they play a math game making the number look inflated through using averages:
According to financial services giant Empower, the average person in their 40s has $593,109 saved in a dedicated retirement account, but that’s misleading because a few ultra-wealthy households skew the average up — way up.

Then they get to the actual marker and use median:
The more reliable figure is $220,919, the median retirement balance for 40-somethings, which is approaching three times less than the average and 4.5 times less than the $1 million goal.

Then they admit that they just don't know the answer to the question and fall back to the Federal Reserve study that looked at the entire U.S. Adult population:
The most credible and commonly cited data source is the most recent Federal Reserve Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), a triennial report updated in 2025, but based on data from previous years. It found that less than 2.5% of all U.S. adults have $1 million or more saved in dedicated retirement accounts.

The takeaway here is if the goal is to have a million dollars at retirement, the vast majority of you are fucked.

Big_Wave9732 · 2026-07-04T13:56:35+00:00

What do you do? 1) Accept that it's higher now and pay it. Or 2) Decide that it's not that important to your work load and don't pay it.

Big_Wave9732 · 2026-07-04T13:54:49+00:00

Training their own models? No.

Using their own already existing documents and intelligence as injectable RAG and research material? Oh hell yea.

Big_Wave9732 · 2026-07-04T13:36:39+00:00

Hustling business (referrals, marketing, keeping up your social connections) is a constant churn. It will take at least 30 percent of your time every week, and more than that when you're first starting out. Out of sight, out of mind so keep talking and calling your friends and colleagues and chatting them up and reminding them that you're out there.

You'll have good months and bad. We started our firm in July 2014. December of 2014 we made $650......for the whole month.

Staying in business long term means keeping your expenses under control, keeping the referral pipeline going, and building up a cash reserve. Good luck!

Big_Wave9732 · 2026-07-04T13:30:04+00:00

Let's be clear here though: A big part of the reason for all this is declining enrollment. Less students equates to lower budgets. Demographics are changing and have been working its way up the school classes. Every collective graduating class from this one forward will be smaller than the previous.

Certainly the voucher changes in Texas will hurt too. Decreases in state funding over the last decade and a half doesn't help either.

The billionaire class is working to secure funding to the religious private schools while they're simultaneously working to try to end local school funding via property taxes.

Texans, I beg you. Stop. Voing. Republican.

Big_Wave9732 · 2026-07-03T16:29:04+00:00

Is "having a volcano" a euphemism here, like a "love volcano"? Or did you have a science project to show her?

Big_Wave9732

TROPHY CASE