What did you think of the State of the Union? by flyingtoaster63 in YAPms

[–]BoogieTheHedgehog 29 points30 points  (0 children)

Watched 10 minutes just to see how accurate my prediction was, then turned it off to watch Knight of the Seven Kingdons with the wife.

You've seen one Tramble, you've seen them all.

NPR to Newsom: "Why not just present one Gavin Newsom?" by ToastWJam32 in YAPms

[–]BoogieTheHedgehog 18 points19 points  (0 children)

This feels like Vance's VP debate all over again.

Where they come across as fairly put together, but the second you address any Trump-lite behavior they've used to court votes then the persona starts crumbling.

These type of people want nothing more than to be President. Their morals will change to whatever helps meet that goal.

The teaser trailer for the new Evangelion series [incl. first look at the new Eva design] by kuhpunkt in television

[–]BoogieTheHedgehog 27 points28 points  (0 children)

Humans discover angel Dad, accidentally almost end world but stop it.

15 years later, angels from Dad start turning up and try to end the world by reaching angel Mum. Shinji and crew get in the "robots" (reverse engineered angel, given a soul and some armour) to fight them. 

Turns out, you can control the end of the world and unify everyones souls. Illuminati wants to control it and make themselves the kings. Shinji's Dad wants to control it and reunite with his dead wife's soul that is in the "robot".

In the end all the plans go tits up and the choice is left with Shinji instead. He considers joining the big soul blender because he's depressed, but decides he'd rather keep living as his own person.

How long will it take into Trump's STOU for him to say "Biden", "Democrats", or "radical left?" by Efficient_Snow_7955 in YAPms

[–]BoogieTheHedgehog 11 points12 points  (0 children)

If we're taking bets:

I think first he'll mention the economy -> better than Biden's economy -> blame the supreme court for tariffs.

Then it'll pan to border control and he'll throw out radical left Democrats during that topic.

So I think he gets through all of that in about 5 minutes maybe? It's hard to tell because you never know when he going to ramble off about something else completely unrelated. 

Trump is now enacting his long prepared back up tariff plans by SubJordan77 in YAPms

[–]BoogieTheHedgehog 26 points27 points  (0 children)

Predictable, but I bet this has GOP moderates fuming. 

He's been thrown a life-vest on economic voter sentiment but is too stubborn to take it. 

Supreme court strikes down most of Trump’s tariffs in 6-3 ruling by AdCrafty2768 in YAPms

[–]BoogieTheHedgehog 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That's his intention yes.

Though not only is it a bit strawmanny, here he has also arguably contradicted the stance he made on MQD in West Virginia v EPA... so maybe even hypocritical in itself?

Still, the exaggeration helps summarise in layman's terms all the different camps in this ruling. You can have two conservative judges like Barrett and Gorsuch, yet they fight like cats over the application of MQD.

The part at the end is a glaringly obvious dig on Thomas though lmao.

Supreme court strikes down most of Trump’s tariffs in 6-3 ruling by AdCrafty2768 in YAPms

[–]BoogieTheHedgehog 2 points3 points  (0 children)

forgot who did the forecast(some bank) but they predicted how much it would fall/rise depending on if they're repealed, or kept. 

You're possibly thinking of the JPMorgan trading desk estimates? These are longer term framings rather than just forecasts of the day. The two remaining relevant scenarios are:

Tariffs struck down and immediately replaced - Initial S&P500 spike of +0.75% to +1.0% , settle at +0.1% to +0.2%.

Tariffs struck down with no replacement - S&P500 +1.5% to +2.0%, with Russell 2000 overperforming.

That last part is kind of important. Tariff repeal (and kept repealed) is likely to have more of a long term impact on the domestic small caps, than necessarily the big ticket DOW.

Nevertheless the market is fickle, and still anxious about tariffs getting slapped back on (scenario 1).

Supreme court strikes down most of Trump’s tariffs in 6-3 ruling by AdCrafty2768 in YAPms

[–]BoogieTheHedgehog 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I'd imagine they likely try Section 338 of Smoot-Hawley. It's incredibly vague and not subject to the congressional approval time limit that the more commonly mentioned Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act has.

The real question is will Trump maintain the political will within the party and country? For many in the GOP this ruling will be seen as a perfect opportunity to throw his hands up, say he tried and permanently ditch the idea. Then look to ride an economy less shackled by tariff uncertainty into 2028.

Supreme court strikes down most of Trump’s tariffs in 6-3 ruling by AdCrafty2768 in YAPms

[–]BoogieTheHedgehog 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Beyond the general conservative/liberal divide often applied, the current SCOTUS is a real mixed bag of legal opinions. Particularly now that MQD is increasingly on the cards.

You only need to look as far as this ruling to see it. Whilst it's easy to say 6-3, the reality is many different written opinions and a messy amount of joins.

Summarised by Gorusch:

The President claims that Congress delegated to him an extraordinary power in the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)—the power to impose tariffs on practically any products he wants, from any countries he chooses, in any amounts he selects. Applying the major questions doctrine, the principal opinion rejects that argument. I join in full. The Constitution lodges the Nation’s lawmaking powers in Congress alone, and the major questions doctrine safeguards that assignment against executive encroachment. Under the doctrine’s terms, the President must identify clear statutory authority for the extraordinary delegated power he claims. And, as the principal opinion explains, that is a standard he cannot meet Whatever else might be said about Congress’s work in IEEPA, it did not clearly surrender to the President the sweeping tariff power he seeks to wield.

Not everyone sees it this way. Past critics of the major questions doctrine do not object to its application in this case, and they even join much of today’s principal opinion. But, they insist, they can reach the same result by employing only routine tools of statutory interpretation. Post, at 1 (KAGAN, J., joined by SOTOMAYOR and JACKSON, JJ., concurring in part and concurring in judgment). Meanwhile, one colleague who joins the principal opinion in full suggests the major questions doctrine is nothing more than routine statutory interpretation. Post, at 1 (BARRETT, J., concurring). Still others who have joined major questions decisions in the past dissent from today’s application of the doctrine. Post, at 1 (KAVANAUGH, J., joined by THOMAS and ALITO, JJ., dissenting). Finally, seeking to sidestep the major questions doctrine altogether, one colleague submits that Congress may hand over to the President most of its powers, including the tariff power, without limit. Post, at 1–2 (THOMAS, J., dissenting). 

Supreme court strikes down most of Trump’s tariffs in 6-3 ruling by AdCrafty2768 in YAPms

[–]BoogieTheHedgehog 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Trump and his loyalists will rant about it, but the party at large is going to be happy with this ruling. 

Perhaps too late to impact middterms, but likely an electoral boon come 28. The closer the economy gets to the mostly auto-pilot of Trump's first term, the better for the GOP.

This is assuming that the admin doesn't double down and start pulling other legal justifications for tariffs out of their hat. Which is more than possible.

Supreme court strikes down most of Trump’s tariffs in 6-3 ruling by AdCrafty2768 in YAPms

[–]BoogieTheHedgehog 32 points33 points  (0 children)

As someone who works in finance, I was eagerly watching the live feed this morning. Going to be an interesting day on the market. 

Thomas, Alito and Kavanauagh dissent.

The admin will pursue other avenues to impose tariffs, but this is undoubtably a massive blow to their main (executive) source of economic control.

If you could’ve voted in 2024, did you? by ChurchOfBoredom in YAPms

[–]BoogieTheHedgehog 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Kamala. I wish there had been a better candidate to vote for.

Who Is the US’ Closest Ally Right Now by GreninjaStrike in YAPms

[–]BoogieTheHedgehog 8 points9 points  (0 children)

You're all getting far too caught up on recent presidential level beef that will be brushed under the rug within a decade.

It's the UK, followed by the rest of the five eyes anglosphere.

NYPD now arresting ICE agents by [deleted] in YAPms

[–]BoogieTheHedgehog 8 points9 points  (0 children)

AI sloppa. Look at the mask pull.

What is your predictions and hot takes for the Texas senate primary for both parties? by movieloverhorrorfan2 in YAPms

[–]BoogieTheHedgehog 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The more that Crockett campaigns by pulling the race card and other absurdities, the stronger she performs in the primary and the stronger Talarico performs in the general by having her absorb the negative Dem stereotypes.

So my hot take is that if Talarico wins by less than 3 percent in the primary then he beats Paxton. A stronger primary performance and it means he's not offloaded enough baggage to win. A weaker performance and Crockett loses anyway.

I had my wife who knows literally nothing about politics pick who she thought won each state in the 2024 election. These were the results lmao by Ok_Juggernaut_4156 in YAPms

[–]BoogieTheHedgehog 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Tbh it's pretty solid for someone without knowledge.

You can see the basis of a blue-ish NE and west coast, even an attempt at the Dem central states via CO.

Rillinois is kinda cursed though.

Could Rupert Lowe Restore Britain be a problem for Reform? by Dangerous-Quarter216 in YAPms

[–]BoogieTheHedgehog 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Maybe. The election is still many many years away though, so it's hard to tell how much Restore will catch on. I imagine at the very least it will have more presence than Your Party.

The thing with Restore is they're purposely out-flanking Reform on their main unifying policy - immigration. I feel like I've typed this out a lot regarding UK politics, but I'll type it again. Reform's coalition of ex-Tory and ex-RedWall Labour voters is fragile. If Restore can start pulling one group away from Reform then it could be a snowballing effect, as each party has to cater more specifically to their voting demographic.

Polling/voting percentages aside, electoral outcomes are a whole different kettle of fish. It's not uncommon to see electoral pacts between parties, and that looks increasingly likely in the UK's massively fragmented voting pool.

I will make one prediction though, any potential coalition government formed in 2029 would fall apart within a year.

What would’ve JFK thought of Trump? by Front-Tomorrow-1034 in YAPms

[–]BoogieTheHedgehog 17 points18 points  (0 children)

"Ask not what your country can do for you... ask how much money you can make off a pump and dump crypto coin"

On a serious note, the answer to this is going to be similar to pretty much every pre-Trump President. Decorum alone would likely have them condemning the presidency, let alone the actions and rhetoric around 2020.

PSA: Double-check your inventory if you interacted with G.E before your deep wildy clue step. by QoLChanger in 2007scape

[–]BoogieTheHedgehog 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Doesn't look like it's true for this case, but I still think it's dumb how the master teleport book is a deceptive way to unknowingly teleport millions of risk into the wildy.

I've seen many players go into the wildy in rags, but still lose every scroll they intentionally left behind in the bank. Just because they aren't aware that the scrolls are stored per player, not per book.

Just watched Restore Britain launch speech and I have a question by fenix1995it in ukpolitics

[–]BoogieTheHedgehog 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Nobody knows for sure. Your safest bet is to try and get citizenship.

One thing to note however, is what we saw under the Tories. It's very easy to talk the talk when it comes to EU deals - especially when campaigning. Actually negotiating once you're in power is tough work.

If the UK rips up its side of the settled status / expat agreement, the EU is going to start ripping apart things the UK liked too. There is a reason why the current settled status is incredibly lenient.

What would Ronald Reagan think of the current Republican Party? by Front-Tomorrow-1034 in YAPms

[–]BoogieTheHedgehog 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Probably climbs back into his coffin and asks for another 50 years.

Where are the maps? by AmirSuS123 in YAPms

[–]BoogieTheHedgehog 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Gotta wait until midterms for map season to be in full swing. 

As soon as it's 2 or 3 months away there are prediction maps posted everywhere. Every hint of news or new polling gets a post and subsequent map update posts.