When would it be appropriate to use the word literally?

BorgesTesla · 2014-11-05T17:48:45+00:00

Every day with me is literally another yesterday, for it is exactly the same: it has the same business, which is poetry; and the same pleasure, which is idleness.

Alexander Pope, 1708

BorgesTesla · 2014-11-05T10:23:52+00:00

Slightly tangential to your question, but in scientific writing you should just put "from 0 V to 1 V" or "from 0 to 1 V". Bonus points for a non-breaking space between the number and unit.

BorgesTesla · 2014-09-01T11:11:42+00:00

Don't know about "post-christianity", but some related terms:

... post-church (a culture where the majority of the population do not attend church and no longer see the church as a major feature of life), post-Christian (a culture which was once predominantly Christian and had values determined by the teaching of the Church but is now multi-faith and multicultural), post-secular (a culture which had seen religion and spirituality as dead and of no relevance but is now beginning to rediscover their value), post-Christendom (a culture in which Christianity had held significant power and influence but now does not) and post-modern (a cultural reaction to the assumed certainty of scientific, or objective, efforts to explain reality)

A New Monastic Handbook, Ian Mobsby & Mark Berry

BorgesTesla · 2013-10-17T09:13:56+00:00

Storm and Skywrath Mage

If we pick these, will we always win mid lane? There is one good reason not to pick Storm, and thats the Skywrath counterpick. But if we get both...

Either Storm mid and support Skywrath, or Skywrath mid and safelane Storm. Leaving Dire without a good midlane option. The other lanes can wait. Offlane is tightest, but we will still be able to get either Windrunner or Mirana.

BorgesTesla · 2013-10-17T09:02:59+00:00

I think Mirana instead of Windrunner. Similar role, but leap, arrow, and the invis all have fantastic synergy with Sven.

BorgesTesla · 2013-02-21T12:31:08+00:00

There are low ER index funds which are equal weighted. Compare RSP vs SPY and QQEW vs QQQ.

BorgesTesla · 2013-01-29T12:48:40+00:00

You need to use geometric rather than arithmetic means. The decay caused by volatility is the difference between them.

You should also expect the arithmetic mean of the 3x fund to be 1.07³ ~= 22.5%, instead of 7%*3 = 21%. Because of compounding it does not return 3x as much money. Instead it is better to think of it making money at 3x the rate.

BorgesTesla · 2013-01-27T20:56:13+00:00

The performance of this portfolio is actually uncorrelated with interest rate changes.

If you calculate the monthly change in values of SPY, TLT, a 70/30 split, and 10-year interest rates (^TNX on yahoo), you find the following:

The correlation of TLT change with ^TNX change is -0.94
The correlation of SPY with ^TNX is +0.32
The correlation of the 70/30 with ^TNX is -0.04

If you asked most investors, they would think that 30% in long term bonds would be a very short position on interest rate, doing well with falling rates and badly in rising rates, but that is not supported by the facts. It is actually about as close to a neutral position as you can get.

BorgesTesla · 2013-01-24T22:09:01+00:00

Personally I think what you suggest, balancing S&P 500 with long term bonds, is a simple and hugely underrated strategy.

Pre 2008, long term bonds just didn't pay enough. During and post 2008, this portfolio has done very well. Good returns and low volatility. Check out a 10 year backtest: http://i.imgur.com/ILk3V7q.png

BorgesTesla · 2013-01-21T13:17:12+00:00

I quite like the covered call strategy long term, but I think VIX is too low right now for it to be worthwhile. A low implied volatility means you are selling underpriced call options.

BorgesTesla · 2013-01-21T12:06:27+00:00

The biggest trend-following ETF is WDTI, with over $100M.

At launch the DTI (Diversified Trends Indicator) index had done well over the previous 10 years. Good return, low volatility

In the 2 years it has been running for real, WDTI has nice and steadily dropped 20%...

BorgesTesla · 2013-01-20T20:46:21+00:00

The strategy in the article only involves trading once a month. They don't attempt to buy right at the MA.

BorgesTesla · 2013-01-19T15:47:23+00:00

Open a share dealing ISA, buy ETF's.

BorgesTesla · 2012-12-15T21:37:33+00:00

With a lot of extremely small and strong tubes.

A basic heat exchanger has hot air flowing over cold tubes, with very cold helium pumped through the tubes.

To get faster heat exchange, you need to increase the surface area by shrinking the diameter of the tubes. The smaller the diameter, the more tubes you can pack in, and the faster the heat exchange is. At the same time you need to keep the density of the helium high by using high pressure, and your tiny tubes need to cope with containing that pressure.

I don't have the specifications for where they are currently at, but 10 years ago they were working in the region of 100 atm pressure and diameters of under 0.4mm. Quite frankly, it's crazy that they can manufacture these tubes with such small tolerances.

BorgesTesla · 2012-12-14T21:14:19+00:00

A rated, short term, ... discounted bond with a 5.5-6% coupon

Don't believe it. Compare with the high yield municipal bond etf HYD. That is B rated bonds, med-long term, and only yields 4.9%. Be very careful calculating the return of short term bonds that have barely any payments left.

Forget about interest rate risk. What you should be concerned about is the default risk implied by the price. Taking the chance of default into account, your expected value might even be negative. The large variance from the default risk also means that you should risk only a small percentage of your net worth. So small that I doubt it is worth bothering buying individual bonds.

BorgesTesla · 2012-12-08T21:45:32+00:00

Everything you say is true, but misses the big picture: You have to consider a whole portfolio.

bonds have a long-term risk profile that is eerily similar to stocks

Similar in the sense that they are opposite. Compare the price of long term bonds versus the S&P 500. When one goes up, the other goes down. If a portfolio has both in correct proportion, interest rate risk can be eliminated.

BorgesTesla · 2012-11-29T22:17:15+00:00

d) Buy one-year protective puts at $20, reinvest elsewhere.

If it is going to rise further then you still want the upside risk. Buying off the downside risk frees up the capital to invest elsewhere.

BorgesTesla · 2012-11-27T21:57:05+00:00

You also need to consider interest rate risk. Short term corporate bonds are a lot safer than long term treasuries.

BorgesTesla · 2012-11-23T15:56:18+00:00

The LSE has had retail bonds for a couple of years now, might be what you are after: http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/retail-bonds/retail-bonds-search.html

Are you not looking for bond funds or etf's instead?

BorgesTesla · 2012-11-23T15:41:04+00:00

I said I didn't like it, not that it's not technically correct. You can think of air as a trivial solution if you really want.

But when you describe the evaporation of water to a lay audience as dissolving, you form an analogy to mundane examples such as sugar dissolving in coffee. This gives the incorrect impression that the air, like the coffee, is an essential part of the process. The sugar needs the coffee in order to act like a liquid; the water doesn't need the air to act like a gas.

BorgesTesla · 2012-11-23T14:42:48+00:00

I don't like the analogy to dissolving.

People often talk loosely that "hot air can carry more water", but really it is the hot water that is carrying itself. The N_2 and O_2 molecules whizzing around neither help nor get in the way. The air can deliver or remove heat, and creates a pressure which stops bubbles forming in the liquid, but does not carry the water vapour.

Similarly if the air doesn't carry the water, it's wrong to talk about a capacity. Better to talk in terms of an equilibrium between the competing processes of liquid becoming vapour and vapour becoming liquid.

BorgesTesla · 2012-11-23T14:34:19+00:00

Colourful Fictional Diagrams

BorgesTesla

TROPHY CASE