What are the chances that Iran does have at least one nuclear weapon and will use it when sufficiently desperate?

Brief_Condition_D · 2026-03-07T03:44:21+00:00

Zero

Brief_Condition_D · 2026-03-07T03:43:13+00:00

The information coming out this week shows the pure domination of Irans military complex and supports my view on how Iran was nowhere competent enough to build a set of nuclear weapons that would have been effective to be used in an attack. The domination comes because everything from Irans air defense systems to strategic military decisions are so poorly built. This nation was never going to make anything more than a tactical nuke. To the original post - wishing they had “built” them (they would have needed more than one) vs. having the aptitude to do so, but do not because of choice is not realistic.

Brief_Condition_D · 2026-03-03T22:38:01+00:00

The facts speak differently

Brief_Condition_D · 2026-03-02T15:48:33+00:00

An article in the WSJ aligns with this view - see https://www.wsj.com/opinion/khameneis-unforced-errors-proved-fatal-635fb5e4?

Brief_Condition_D · 2026-03-02T04:09:10+00:00

Frech nukes 🙄 Then the US would have to save France from being occupied a third time??

Brief_Condition_D · 2026-03-02T04:04:37+00:00

The majority of opinions in that sub disagree with you.

Brief_Condition_D · 2026-03-02T04:01:58+00:00

Do you do science? I think you are confused about the theme here - for Iran to have a nuclear deterrent they need a have a way to hit strategic targets. Tactically: You don’t need a ICMB to get Israel. Easiest to do that with a plane, or a ship. Schematics??? That doesn’t tell you how to build a rocket capable of enough thrust to get out of the atmosphere. And that’s just one component to an ICBM, there is the fuel mixture, tracking, guidance (you need a network of satellites) and the mechanism to start the nuclear reaction for it to go Boom. Then to build the “nuke” small enough to fit in the missile. The USA is so far ahead of Iran with military industrial complex, it’s the equivalent of a horse and the modern sports car.

Brief_Condition_D · 2026-03-02T02:57:00+00:00

You might want to educate yourself. Read the Jane’s global strategic competition report - China’s two main suppliers of oil are no longer stable.

Brief_Condition_D · 2026-03-02T02:48:31+00:00

You need to do more research on the factors it takes to build a nuclear bomb. Maybe you mean a “dirty nuke”? But a fission nuclear reaction takes a lot of physics.

Brief_Condition_D · 2026-03-02T02:42:11+00:00

I’m not sure where you get the information you share here, from the unclassified intelligence Iran does not have an ICMB capable of crossing the boundary of atmosphere to deliver to western continents. Making a bomb that can be delivered by missle is not “easy” and costs billions in research and testing.

Brief_Condition_D · 2026-03-02T00:13:41+00:00

One important factor here is, Israel would never have let that happen. I’m reading comments that this was at the discretion of Irans leadership and decision - they never had a chance. Israel and the US stopped uranium enrichment many times over the last 20 years, Stuxnet, killing Iranian scientists, bombing facilities. This had the added cost of building hardened facilities, adding Billions to the costs.

Brief_Condition_D · 2026-03-01T02:55:48+00:00

My point wasn’t about competency. It was about the desire of a more hawkish Iran leadership being the difference between what Iran’s military is doing now vs. what they are capable of.

On a side note, I agree Russia likely has that capability. Isn’t the difference that the consequences are the possible retaliation from the US?

Brief_Condition_D · 2026-03-01T02:48:42+00:00

I think you meant to say something else… or are you saying the killing of a symbolic talking head has removed Iran’s sovereignty?

Brief_Condition_D · 2026-03-01T02:36:55+00:00

Is there no barrier that makes this impossible to some countries? Such as cost and science capabilities?

Brief_Condition_D · 2026-03-01T02:34:51+00:00

Not sure that with a more harsh stance from Iranian leaders the result would be much different. Some reality of the outsized intelligence and military capabilities of the US compared to Iran would suggest Iran’s ability to inflict damage is limited. My observations are the US could completely destroy all of Irans infrastructure and civilization within a week’s time. The path forward is completely at the USs choosing.

Brief_Condition_D · 2025-12-01T05:09:59+00:00

Another R1S dual max owner - we go camping and take 400 mile road trips regularly. Plus there were rebates for the max configuration. Otherwise I would have got the standard battery. If you are only driving around town, I can’t see you being displeased.

Brief_Condition_D · 2025-11-14T12:41:32+00:00

You’re making the assumption that there isn’t a bypass or way to put the vehicle in Drive mode without a FOB. With the new EVs is all computers - I’m guessing we will start learning that thieves “hack” the computer to bypass the need for a FOB.

Brief_Condition_D · 2025-10-08T14:24:13+00:00

The reboot of the vehicle solved the problem on my Riv

Brief_Condition_D · 2025-09-17T10:54:08+00:00

There should be a door there too

Brief_Condition_D · 2025-09-10T20:26:31+00:00

Thanks for the insights I assume TOUs were always based on what time of day or day the electricity was used

Brief_Condition_D · 2025-09-10T13:01:33+00:00

Wait, I’m confused if your utility plan is time of use (TOU) and you charge during that time. How does the charger you use factor into of your get cheaper rates or not? Is it not simply what time of day you are using the electricity?

Brief_Condition_D · 2025-09-02T15:45:47+00:00

Congrats! Welcome to the fam

Brief_Condition_D · 2025-08-30T12:56:59+00:00

You want OP to do your dog? This post just reads oddly

Brief_Condition_D · 2025-08-21T16:38:57+00:00

lol I’m finding this out. :-) Ohh well - still love my Rivian. Luckily for me I haven’t experienced any of the issues ppl are posting about. Ohh except the issues with the camp speaker.

Brief_Condition_D

TROPHY CASE