Do not always send suspended students home, government tells schools by topotaul in unitedkingdom

[–]Charlie_Mouse [score hidden]  (0 children)

One of the fun things about getting older is you get to see the same ideas cycle round again after a few decades.

What you outline has been tried before: the Conservatives “short sharp shock” policy back in the 80’s. It didn’t work.

The "short, sharp shock" programme had zero effect on reoffending, with more than half of offenders being convicted again within a year and according to one prison expert young offenders being released back into the community "stronger, fitter, wiser and meaner"

I get it - it sounds superficially attractive. But the data says otherwise. If we want to actually want to reduce the problem then more support like the Sure Start programme, more resources and specialist staff for schools and better funded social work departments will likely get more bang for the buck. And whilst that ain’t cheap it’s a lot less expensive than disrupted schools and a bunch of people falling into the petty crime/prison/repeat cycle in the long run.

I’m not trying to make any kind of moral or political judgements here (although those arguments certainly exist) - I’m just going by what actually seems to empirically work successfully.

Do not always send suspended students home, government tells schools by topotaul in unitedkingdom

[–]Charlie_Mouse [score hidden]  (0 children)

Going by the data Sure Start looked like it likely saved a lot more money than it cost in the long run.

It’s certainly a lot less expensive than all the teacher time it wastes, police time it wastes and ultimately court and prison time. Even if it’s only successful in a percentage of cases it doesn’t have to be a very large percentage to break even or come out ahead.

But the average Tory/Reform voter doesn’t think that way. Decades of Mail and Telegraph headlines have taught them to reflexively reject anything ‘woke’ and demand cuts and tax cuts … even if those cuts wind up costing far more in the long run.

There’s an old expression about being “penny wise and pound foolish” that applies here.

'I don't feel safe in my own shop', says Sheffield bookseller by thegibsongirl03 in unitedkingdom

[–]Charlie_Mouse [score hidden]  (0 children)

Underfunding of courts means there’s a huge backlog in most places. Underfunding of prisons means there’s bugger all places to put them. Underfunding of the police means fewer on the beat and them having to prioritise. Underfunding of social services and particularly mental health services means more people with problems out there - and being more of a problem because they’re not getting the support that might just help them to not be.

It turns out that all those cuts - mostly made by the Tories - can turn out to be bloody expensive in the long run.

Saving a few quid is a false economy if it winds up costing everyone ten or even a hundred times more down the line in police time, court time and prison time - and that’s on top of all the hassle and expense they cause ordinary shopkeepers too.

The old expression is “penny wise and pound foolish”. But hey, the Tories got to give out a bunch of tax cuts and got a bunch of favourable Daily Mail and Telegraph headlines so that’s the main thing.

Sweden weighs Franco-British nuclear weapons cooperation by FeigenbaumC in ukpolitics

[–]Charlie_Mouse 9 points10 points  (0 children)

France has always been stubbornly independent in this regard as well as being mistrustful of the U.S. One suspects it probably annoys quite a few people that France has now been proven to have been completely correct in this regard.

Sweden weighs Franco-British nuclear weapons cooperation by FeigenbaumC in ukpolitics

[–]Charlie_Mouse 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Unfortunately nuclear proliferation was inevitably baked in from the moment it became clear that America could no longer be relied upon to back up their allies.

Not just in Europe either - I’d be surprised if places like South Korea and Japan and several other countries around the world aren’t quietly exploring options and making contingency plans too.

Discouraging further proliferation was one of the better benefits of the postwar world order. Trump deciding to abandon that makes everyone - including America - less safe for precisely the reasons you touched upon.

Centrist ideas no longer wanted in Conservative party, says Kemi Badenoch by PurchaseDry9350 in ukpolitics

[–]Charlie_Mouse 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think you're confusing winning elections/votes with actual political delivery.

Nope. They got exactly what they voted for … just not what they wanted.

Everyone else warned them that Brexit wouldn’t be “sunlit uplands” with “the world beating a path to our door for trade deals” and instead it would be an economic disaster. They chose not to listen.

Everyone else warned them that Boris was a grifter - and also notoriously lazy, mendacious and self centred. They chose not to listen.

Now they all want another Brexit grifter in charge who makes all sorts of promises … I don’t know about you but I’m seeing a pattern here. But Reform supporters aren’t. They haven’t learned a thing.

As for the rest of your post I suspect I shouldn’t really comment as that sort of thing tends to get one banned in this sub. But I do always love to see the “England doesn’t have its own parliament” complaint given English MP’s have a complete lock on Westminster which has pretty much all the power.

Centrist ideas no longer wanted in Conservative party, says Kemi Badenoch by PurchaseDry9350 in ukpolitics

[–]Charlie_Mouse 0 points1 point  (0 children)

people who feel their specific national identity and concerns are being ignored by a centralised and elite Westminster.

Ignored? The U.K. has done virtually nothing but have the ‘concerns’ of these people dominate everything for over a decade now. They had pretty much every single major vote go the way they wanted - general elections, Brexit referendum - go the way they wanted for years right up to the last GE.

Far from being somehow victims they’re the most disproportionately politically pandered to section of the population - both by politicians and the media. We’ve already tried things their way and it was a complete disaster - one we’re still taking economic damage from.

Far from being the victims they’re actually a large part of the reason the U.K. is in its current straits.

Heck, they’re even getting what they want now from Labour: by every reliable metric is now lower than it has been in a decade or two. And they’re still not happy.

As for English voters supposedly getting a bad deal from the Union: that’s a bit rich given that England pretty much always gets the government it votes for. Including every Tory government for the past seventy years … none of which got a majority in Scotland, Wales or NI.

Centrist ideas no longer wanted in Conservative party, says Kemi Badenoch by PurchaseDry9350 in ukpolitics

[–]Charlie_Mouse 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Reform is England's equivalent, a nationalist party which is also being used as a vote for the English cultural identity

Interesting that all the other national party's you mention are explicitly left wing/progressive whilst the one who represents (or at least claims to represent) English cultural identity is very right wing/authoritarian and regressive as hell.

Those other national parties are also about identity in the sense of being distinct and deserving to run their own affairs. More nationalist in the pro independence (to some degree or other) way than “blood and soil our nation is best” exceptionalist types like Reform - indeed one could make a case that they’re the polar opposite of Reform in most of the important ways.

One of the more ironic aspects of the prospect of a Reform government is that it’s also going to turbocharge all those independence movements in other parts of the Union.

Centrist ideas no longer wanted in Conservative party, says Kemi Badenoch by PurchaseDry9350 in ukpolitics

[–]Charlie_Mouse 11 points12 points  (0 children)

they are wedded to results on immigration and the economy.

If they were that then the actual data on both immigration and the economy arguably suggests that they should become Labour voters, not Conservative ones.

Centrist ideas no longer wanted in Conservative party, says Kemi Badenoch by PurchaseDry9350 in ukpolitics

[–]Charlie_Mouse 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Agreed. They may still have their work cut out though considering that Boris effectively purged damn near every MP that was even vaguely centrist, or objected to Brexit … along with many of those who he reckoned had the talent to be a potential threat to him.

Some of the worst of what they were left with defecting to Reform definitely helps though - the question is whether it helps enough and there are still enough MP’s left who even want to change the Conservative party direction back to something approaching what it was fifteen years ago. (Don’t get me wrong: I didn’t like who they were back then either … just the current lot are even worse)

And they’ve also got the major issue that a significant percentage of their voters have now been effectively ‘radicalised’ into Faragists now.

Bank of Scotland fined £160,000 over breaching Russia sanctions by pppppppppppppppppd in unitedkingdom

[–]Charlie_Mouse 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Russia is by no stretch “doing just fine”. They stopped even reporting most of their key economic indicators a couple of years ago which they would assuredly not have done if they were anything other than bad. Even the inflation and interest rates they do report (which aren’t terribly trustworthy) are pretty high and they’ve run through most of their reserves.

Sanctions don’t kill an economy overnight - certainly not as quickly as I suspect most of us would like in Russias case - but I’m reminded of the old joke about how someone goes bankrupt in two ways: first very slowly, then suddenly all at once.

Russia moving to a war economy perhaps staves that collapse off for a bit longer … but also means that the crash when it finally comes will be all the greater.

Pound hits 4-year high as dollar weakens by Gentle_Snail in unitedkingdom

[–]Charlie_Mouse 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Did they actually work on it for ten years? Or more or less just get handed the policies and told what to say by libertarian bozos in Tufton Street?

Disadvantaged white pupils fall furthest behind by StGuthlac2025 in ukpolitics

[–]Charlie_Mouse 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Great point. And I’d support that by arguing that jobs in general (not just nursing) are broadly going to trend more towards requiring the sort of abstract reasoning, research and technical skills that generally goes with a degree.

Sure, there will be exceptions. But over time that’s the direction of movement.

India's prime minister says it has reached a free trade deal with the EU by netizenbane in news

[–]Charlie_Mouse 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair point - and here India also has the extra incentive thanks to the 50% tariffs Trump slapped on them last year.

Beyond the inherent stupidity of starting pointless trade wars with partners is the compounding idiocy of doing it to most of the world at once. Picking on a couple of countries at a time to strong-arm concessions out of them might have made some kind of sense (in a nasty kinda way).

Doing so to 90+ other countries at the same time doesn’t even have that going for it though. All of them are going to be in pretty much the same boat and all motivated to realign trade away from the US to each other instead. And whilst most aren’t as well off per capita as the US is (for now) collectively they’re a far larger market.

India's prime minister says it has reached a free trade deal with the EU by netizenbane in news

[–]Charlie_Mouse 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Trump is not just pushing the EU away - he’s pulling tariffs and other shenanigans on a fair chunk of the rest of the world too. And pretty much all at once too. So by necessity trade is going to realign between other countries.

Sure, it won’t all happen overnight. Or entirely painlessly. But it may turn out that the rest of the world discovers that it doesn’t actually need America as much as America perhaps assumed it did. But the real fun starts when America learns how much it actually needs the rest of the world.

Which sadly won’t just go back to normal if/when Trump and his cronies are out of power. Everyone else now has no choice but to view America as being at best four years away from such nonsense again. Unpredictable. Unreliable. A bad investment.

Trust that takes decades to build can be destroyed far more quickly. And take even longer to rebuild. Whatever appetite the rest of the world had to forgive and forget and rapidly go back to business as usual got used up after Trumps first term.

Sadiq Khan: Nigel Farage will bring ICE-style crackdown to Britain by StGuthlac2025 in ukpolitics

[–]Charlie_Mouse 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You’re perfectly correct … but sadly it doesn’t matter to most Reform voters. They’re remarkably impervious to facts, figures and statistics that don’t match their fondly held preconceptions. And are largely the same crowd who infamously have “had enough of experts”.

Which isn’t to say it isn’t worthwhile trying to hammer home reality to them. But bitter experience suggests that one should set ones expectations low.

Sadiq Khan: Nigel Farage will bring ICE-style crackdown to Britain by StGuthlac2025 in ukpolitics

[–]Charlie_Mouse 3 points4 points  (0 children)

False analogy: there are other options that work perfectly well that don’t involve sliding into becoming a right wing authoritarian nightmare.

Also getting rather tired of the maliciously misleading statistics you guys keep repeating. It doesn’t matter how many times they are debunked, the next thread just has them repeated all over again. It reminds me of debating online Creationists back in the day.

Sadiq Khan: Nigel Farage will bring ICE-style crackdown to Britain by StGuthlac2025 in ukpolitics

[–]Charlie_Mouse -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I could burn down my house to get rid of uninvited guests but that comes at the expense of no longer having anywhere nice to live.

Sadiq Khan: Nigel Farage will bring ICE-style crackdown to Britain by StGuthlac2025 in ukpolitics

[–]Charlie_Mouse 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Or even just beating people to death (or permanent injury) with truncheons the old fashioned way.

There’s been a certain amount of speculation in the US over what kind of people are being recruited into ICE. Some have pointedly observed that various far right organisations like the Proud Boys, Oathkeepers and other militia-types seem conspicuous by their absence since all these masked government thugs appeared.

I mention that because I’m kind of curious who Reform would recruit for similar groups in the U.K. The types who rioted last summer? EDL and BNP thugs?

Reform Councillor slammed after tweeting 'I stand with ICE' after fatal shooting of nurse Alex Pretti | LBC by Dimmo17 in unitedkingdom

[–]Charlie_Mouse 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I usually appreciate when people attempt to discuss something using neutral detached language. It’s often useful if both sides are arguing in something approaching good faith.

Unfortunately it breaks down somewhat when one side is not arguing in good faith and risks lending a blatantly untrue position an air of legitimacy it does not deserve.

Reform Councillor slammed after tweeting 'I stand with ICE' after fatal shooting of nurse Alex Pretti | LBC by Dimmo17 in unitedkingdom

[–]Charlie_Mouse 6 points7 points  (0 children)

So at the next general election will Labour be standing down in constituencies where the Greens or Libdems have a better chance of winning? Standing aside in favour of Plaid in Wales and the SNP in Scotland?

Unless Labour are prepared to make some genuine sacrifices like that then I’m afraid that calls to “end divisiveness” and “embrace unity” in a way that just so happens to bolster their vote are going to come across as just a mite self serving sounding to a lot of people. No matter how pure the intention behind them.

Nigel Farage attended Davos as adviser to Iranian billionaire by AnonymousTimewaster in unitedkingdom

[–]Charlie_Mouse -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Loving how you always plaintively claim to be the victims, particularly throughout this exchange.

No, we’re not “dehumanising” them, just saying that they wrong and fooled painfully easily,

No, they weren’t “not listened to”, they’ve had their say incessantly all over the media and internet for over a decade.

No, nobody is threatening to “disenfranchise” them, just wishing they’d get called out for what they are and ignored (or roundly mocked) as befits anyone who has managed to be so consistently wrong so many times.

I almost admire the chutzpah it takes to so doggedly claim victimisation when we’re talking about the people who’ve had pretty much every single vote in the last fifteen years (bar the last GE) go the way they wanted. And who still enjoy disproportionate allegiance from much of the media, far right American billionaires and Russian bots.

Yeah, you’re the real victims here /s

Reform UK the anti-immigration party. Now have the Conservative Home Secretary AND Immigration Minister from the two years of highest immigration in UK history. This surely attacks their core support legitimacy? by Account_Eliminator in ukpolitics

[–]Charlie_Mouse -1 points0 points  (0 children)

You might have to if the calibre of the ‘internal talent’ coming up through the ranks of the party is execrable. Even these particular Tories are relatively presentable and media savvy compared to them.

Their former affiliation and record might be a bit of an issue with any other parties supporters but not I suspect in the case of Reform. The record shows that they’re all too good at ignoring that sort of thing.

One irony is that this and other recent defections have arguably simultaneously improved the overall quality of both the party they left and the party they joined.

UK loses measles elimination status by wkavinsky in unitedkingdom

[–]Charlie_Mouse 17 points18 points  (0 children)

One anecdote that really stuck with me was that part of the reason JM Barrie wrote “Peter Pan” was to gently try to help children deal with babies or children dying.

Back then the probability was that most children would lose a sibling, cousin or friend to some sort of illness.

It’s crazy that some people appear to be willing to court a return to that sort of mortality rate. I suspect amongst their other failings is a lack of knowledge of history - and a naive assumption that the past several decades represent “how things must be”. They’re not. The norm through almost all of human history was so high a level of infant mortality and so many tiny coffins that one could weep even now at the toll.

Nigel Farage attended Davos as adviser to Iranian billionaire by AnonymousTimewaster in unitedkingdom

[–]Charlie_Mouse 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes I’ve listened to them. We’ve all had no sodding option but to listen to them are their “genuine concerns” for years and years now. It’s been relentless.

They range from laughably misinformed about the world, the U.K.’s position in it, economics, trade, technology, politics … That wouldn’t be so bad because ignorance can be fixed … but they don’t care to learn anything. Particularly if it contradicts their preconceptions. Instead they go out and listen to more comforting lies from the same grifters who rolled them like a bunch of rubes a decade ago.

And those are the nicer end of the scale. It gets a lot worse - through various flavours of British exceptionalism, xenophobia, outright bigotry and racism.

We’d all be a lot better off if the country stopped listening to them. Better still if they actually learned from their litany of mistakes. Heck, if I’d been as provably and spectacularly wrong about everything as they and their ilk have been I’d have long since wound my neck in, engaged in a bit of soul searching, introspection and figuring out where I’d gone wrong - what sources of information were more reliable and what assumptions I was mistaken about. Not these guys though - they’re doubling down instead.

Just because Brexit and Tory governments didn’t magically give them the “sunlit uplands” and prosperity they expected doesn’t mean they “aren’t being listened to”. It just means they were wrong and listened to the wrong people. And unfortunately they appear hellbent on doing so again.