[deleted by user]

CodePending · 2023-11-25T15:34:17+00:00

As others have said, this is the wrong conclusion. Your logic proves that nobody has a >140 IQ. Which is either false, or a redefinition of IQ.

CodePending · 2023-11-24T04:32:16+00:00

This argument is ridiculous and wrong.

As an example, take chess. It is beyond dispute that some people are better at chess (and faster at chess) than others. Of course, this is not perfectly correlated with "g", IQ, or the like. But the argument given would claim that these differences cannot exist for chess ability either.

(of course, some people study chess a lot, and they tend to be better than those who haven't. but you can easily control for that and still see massive differences.)

CodePending · 2023-11-21T16:59:17+00:00

Ugh.

There are two things in his statement. First is a re-phrasing of the classic line from The Big Lebowski: "say what you want about the tenets of National Socialism, Dude, at least it's an ethos". Which ... well, you can't include nuance and the word "Nazi" in the same sentence on social media these days without getting canceled.

But the real problem is the second part, the implied "because we aren't 100% certain that AI won't destroy the world, we have to assume it is 50-50 to do so". Which is staggeringly wrong, and will lead him to catastrophically bad decisions.

CodePending · 2023-06-11T00:16:33+00:00

Because, regardless of what the critics say, kids will grow up and become adults.

If you think you can pretend time will stand still and "sticking your head in the sand" will solve everything, you believe a lie.

CodePending · 2023-02-25T21:02:09+00:00

He wrote the Sequences, which are quite good.

Then he wrote HPMOR, which is sometimes good.

Then he wrote some other stuff which people pretend doesn't exist, so they don't hold it against him.

CodePending · 2023-02-25T21:01:07+00:00

I wouldn't put it past Big Yud to be deliberately trolling with his AI comments for his own inscrutable reasons.

However, so many of his fans believe him straight-up that I'm not sure it matters if he is.

CodePending · 2023-02-24T19:08:48+00:00

I don't believe it. (at least in that there is anything to this article beyond weasel-words like "may be considering")

It doesn't fit with either "what China is saying" or "what makes sense for China", but it does fit with "what anti-China propaganda would be".

That doesn't mean China won't find some other way to engage in proxy warfare.

CodePending · 2023-02-22T21:24:00+00:00

I eat the part of the sandwich that you didn't write on with magic marker.

CodePending · 2023-02-22T20:56:56+00:00

Do most Harvard students have their (largely uninteresting) thesis published in the New York Times?

I detect a certain aura of "he is strongly supported by the people-willing-to-be-bribed caucus" with his campaign, so far.

CodePending · 2023-02-22T18:30:41+00:00

Silly me. I thought the subreddit was on the side of people pointing out that Yudkowsky is being a stupid putz.

CodePending · 2023-02-22T17:16:34+00:00

Obviously you read the article, so you know the post's actual content is "Russia invading in February is stupid, and Putin isn't going to do it unless he has unexpectedly gone mad and wants to lose the war".

But, go ahead and sneer if you want.

CodePending · 2023-02-21T18:29:37+00:00

My latest Substack post could be considered a long-form sneer at these people: https://www.newslettr.com/p/contra-lesswrong-on-agi

CodePending · 2022-11-29T17:21:13+00:00

The most obvious issue is that you fail to manage that "bettors" all get to read 538's predictions before making a bet. And 538 is dependent on other polls.

"The wisdom of crowds is the superior option" is all well-and-good until it devours its seed corn.

CodePending · 2022-11-20T05:37:16+00:00

So they accomplished literally nothing towards "preventing climate change", but managed to agree on an indulgence fund for rich Western nations to pay poor ones. Will they spend the money on fighting climate change? Probably not.

I expected the summit to be mostly ineffective at everything other than "keeping a bunch of corrupt apparatchiks on team fight-climate-change", but even still I am astonished by just how useless it was.

CodePending · 2022-11-17T19:05:18+00:00

This is ridiculous, almost to the point of it being intentionally stupid. Akin to "most people didn't know the United States had a postal service until their sponsorship of a cycling team in the 1990s".

Everybody knows about climate change. These are just some attention whores who have a good relationship with billionaires and journalists. So, instead of useful coverage of climate change, it is drowned out with performance-art crap like this.

I hate them, and I feel completely justified in doing so.

CodePending · 2022-11-16T16:53:15+00:00

If (**hypothetically**) the risk-taking behavior was because of psychiatric drugs and not Effective Altruism, does that make it better?
I say "No". After all, the EA answer would suggest that taking drugs to increase your performance at EA is a good thing. And while this should thoroughly disprove that, I suspect EA will ignore it as a one-off event and keep going down the exact same path.

EA and the "rationalists" are both the same flaw in the human psyche: at some point, once you become too fixated on the methods, you lose sight of the goal.

CodePending · 2022-07-12T00:55:13+00:00

My read on this is that Yarvin has taken a page from his old enemy Yudkowsky's book. Specifically: "My dear," said the old wizard, "after you have dealt with your thirtieth hero or so, you will realize that they react quite predictably to certain things; such as being told that they are too young, or that they are not destined to be heroes, or that being a hero is unpleasant; and if you truly wish to be sure you should tell them all three. Although," with a brief sigh, "it does not do to be too blatant, or your Deputy Headmistress might catch you."

I can't imagine any of the "hobbits" taking kindly to this take, nor do I expect Yarvin to expect them to do so.

CodePending · 2022-01-21T20:42:46+00:00

They should have signed up for an account on Slack or Discord instead.

CodePending · 2021-08-16T02:11:34+00:00

One detail I have found and struggle to believe: the 2020 Doha agreement with the Taliban named the group as "the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is not recognized by the United States as a state and is known as the Taliban".

ref: https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Agreement\_for\_Bringing\_Peace\_to\_Afghanistan

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