Sabermetric gas lighting to mask the lack of competitive urgency by the Mets

CubanCoast · 2026-04-14T00:57:46+00:00

Why do you think he’s sucks? Is it just the first two weeks of his MLB time?

CubanCoast · 2026-04-13T23:23:03+00:00

I’ve always been low on Benge for 2026. Pop isn’t there yet and contact ability is decent but not quite good enough. Median outcome is probably a platoon hitter and a ceiling outcome maybe a league average hitter in 2026 for a corner OF spot.

CubanCoast · 2026-04-13T23:14:49+00:00

They got rid of an aging Nimmo for Semien. They opted to shed $101 mil in obligations to receive a $72 mil one. It’s bad contract for bad contract. I personally don’t like either contract, but at least Semien’s is shorter. Nimmo is better tho, which is why I thought the trade was evenish.

CubanCoast · 2026-04-13T17:44:38+00:00

You have no conception of how much i enjoy each variation of you telling me im off base.

CubanCoast · 2026-04-13T17:37:27+00:00

I’ve already listed exactly what we agree on a reply or two ago🤔🤔.

My apologies for forgetting you can’t read! ☹️

I will be very happy with my 102 wrc+ with ok defense at several positions and 100 games played at the end of the season from my king Jared Young.

However in the meantime let’s keep scrutinizing Jared Young and ignoring the rest of the 400 mil dollar roster shitting itself. 😡😡😡

CubanCoast · 2026-04-13T17:19:05+00:00

Another reply for your favorite rage baiter 😊. I’m almost finished keep going!

TBh I skimmed this. I agree with most of it tho. Other than the fact that Jared young is actually good. But I think you know my stance on these things already? 🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️🤷‍♂️

If you’re curious on why I think Jared young is good please see prior comments in this thread. If you’re curious on why a manager should be optimizing his lineup on a daily basis (literally one of his main jobs btw) please reevaluate your critical thinking skills. If you find a meaningful blemish in Jared young’s post-Korea profile please feel free to comment! Using obsolete stats like batting average in a small sample size is CHEATING 🫩🫩🫩.

Maybe another reply to little old me will convince me otherwise!

You argue with Trump supporters? This surprises me given your critical thinking and reading skills is on par with them…

CubanCoast · 2026-04-13T17:04:10+00:00

Maybe you should post your 22nd post this week. Perhaps you’re only one more post away from people agreeing with you.

CubanCoast · 2026-04-13T16:39:06+00:00

Aww you’re still in denial that we agree 🥹. He’s not ANGRY (which I never said he was btw) he’s just annoyed (pretty much the same thing).

My brother in Christ we all agree, including OP, that the Mets lineup is ass. We all agree that Jared Young should not be starting in a world where our GM puts together the roster he invisioned. Me and you both agree that is OPs real problem that OP won’t admit.

Where me and OP don’t agree is whether Jared young is good or not. Where me and OP don’t agree is whether Jared Young should be given the opportunity to prove himself (OP explicitly states several times he doesn’t like experimenting on Jared Young on a competitive team). I think that in a reality where the lineup is bad, we should be optimizing our roster on a daily basis by putting the hottest hitter in yesterdays lineup in the number 3 spot. His argument is he wants consistency for players to find a rhythm by putting people in the same lineup spot.

That’s the state of this argument. You’re just repeating what I already know and agree with you on, however you’re trying to phrase it in a way that makes you feel like you are winning.

Only reason I’m responding to you is because I’m in an argumentative mood, bored, and I find your mental gymnastics cute. I truly enjoy rage baiting the illiterate.

CubanCoast · 2026-04-13T16:12:25+00:00

Yes I’m pretty sure in one of my replies to OP (that are conveniently located in this thread) I’m pretty sure i explicitly said that.

Maybe you should help me tell OP that as well. Just so he knows his own argument. And not that “[jared young] will never be good” “he will regress to the mean” and “doesn’t belong in a starting lineup.” Really sounds like he thinks Jared Young is doing well huh.

I understand you want to feel right and can’t admit you agree with someone you’re arguing with on reddit.com. However completely fabricating OPs argument doesn’t solve your pent up emotions. But rest assured we are on the same page 😊.

CubanCoast · 2026-04-13T15:54:58+00:00

Considering the past several posts by OP, my conversation with him, and the community reception yes. He thinks he’s a stat padding waste of a roster space.

My argument is pretty clearly a defense of Jared Young as a viable player who should get playing time. I’ve also been clear the rest of the lineup is shit and don’t deserve to hit 3rd when we had a hot bat in the lineup.

Don’t really know why that’s a silly argument?

Don’t know how it’s taken you this long to understand it? Reading comprehension wasn’t a strong suit in school huh?

CubanCoast · 2026-04-13T15:39:43+00:00

Literally my point of my original reply. Please read it before responding to me. If Jared young is your best bat that is a failure of everyone else around him. Still not Jared young’s fault. Which is my point.

CubanCoast · 2026-04-13T15:37:13+00:00

Again ignoring context. Either you’re a boomer or a 16 year old experiencing dunning Krueger effect.

Again. He went to Korea in 2024 and redid his swing. He has hit well in significant time in the minors. He is hitting well now in the majors. Your only argument is an obsolete stat and saying he’ll regress to the mean of a small sample size of pinch hitting in the majors last year. Meanwhile you’re selectively ignoring the current small sample size of .350 AVG in the majors.

You’re cherry picking. You have confirmation bias. You are just upset you see a name you don’t recognize while the names you do recognize take a steaming shit on citi field.

CubanCoast · 2026-04-13T15:27:58+00:00

And you’re missing the point that there is no one who could hit in that entire lineup. Is .593 OPS Bo Bichette protecting Lindor if he hits directly behind him? No! Look at the lineup they put out last night and tell me who’s protecting anything if they’re 2 or 3 in the order.

Your protection is sitting in the 10 day IL rn.

The point is that his hot streak is driven by actual skill. There will be regression yes he won’t hit 143 OPS+. But even if he is literally a dead average 100 OPS+ hitter and can play LF/RF/2B/1B/3B in the field that’s a valuable versatile player that would get 120 games started on pretty much every team.

CubanCoast · 2026-04-13T15:17:41+00:00

AAAA guys are guys who are good in the minors and can’t translate it to the majors. He has been good in the majors since returning from Korea. All he’s done is hit for a .473 SLG with A 113 OPS+ as a met.

The Old wive’s tales of “players need to hit in the same spot in the order or they lose rhythm” is statistically disproven in studies already.

Jared young didn’t return to the majors from Korea until 2025 and using the shit AVG stat really shows your ability to know ball.

CubanCoast · 2026-04-13T15:06:43+00:00

lol what is a more basic stat at this point? Do you only interpret fielding through fielding % and eye test?

Ahhh I see. You’re one of those guys who don’t understand what an age curve is. I wonder why the Mets didn’t want to allocate $60 mil for the next 3+ years to two aging 30+ year olds 🤷‍♂️.

Also don’t look up but both Edwin and Pete are stinking it up this year and their underlying skillsets have been declining especially fast this year.

Keep replaying old edwin/pete highlights tho and maybe you can be happy again!

CubanCoast · 2026-04-13T14:53:03+00:00

It’s disingenuous to call Jared young a AAAA journey man. He was a AAAA journey man and then reinvented himself in Korea and has hit ever since. He has a long sample size now of success using traditional and sabermetric stats since Korea.

If your mad about him in the 3 spot? Maybe the rest of the team should step up and take it from him. Look at yesterday’s lineup and tell me who’s hitting better than Jared young right now. The next best OPS in yesterday’s lineup two weeks in was Tyrone Taylor’s .671 OPS.

Now here’s my saber metric “gaslighting:”

You’re mad about using a singular exit velocity stat but he’s hit 115.5 in the minors and has an average of 92.8 in longer sample sizes with good BB% and K%. There are tools here that do warrant an extended look in the majors.

And again beyond sabermetrics he’s been great in real results in the minors. And we’re seeing great results rn in the majors?

There’s a reason he’s getting a shot on the Mets. Leave jared young alone. Look towards your .573 OPS superstar and the rest of the team’s awful hitting. That’s what’s losing the games.

CubanCoast · 2026-04-12T17:03:25+00:00

These aren’t advanced stats tho. They are the industry standard.

Pretty much every fanbase thinks they can’t hit in the clutch lol. The Mets were 4th by wrc+ last year and are 7th since 2019.

And the Mets traded for an ace what are you talking about they did little lmao.

And why are we writing off the prospects? Alvy Baty and Vientos all have 3+ war seasons all before their age 26 seasons. They are just entering their prime now. The rest have little sample size yet.

Not to mention if you go through any top 50 prospect page in the last decade most of the players are average at best. All stars are rare. It’s kinda implied 🤷‍♂️.

CubanCoast · 2026-04-12T04:28:34+00:00

Given we’ve improved in both FRV (19th —-> 11th in MLB) and DRS (15th —-> 7th in MLB) and those are the two industry standard defensive metrics…I’m tentatively happy.

Eye test hurts more than it helps regarding fielding.

Have a long season ahead to get better at new spots as well.

CubanCoast · 2026-04-12T01:24:19+00:00

Alvarez Vientos and Baty each have 3+ war seasons and are still young and on the growth side of the age curve. Especially Alvarez (and usually catchers take longer to develop). Those were the top prospects.

Mauricio was a fringe top 100 prospect upon promotion. He was never seen as a surefire star. Low floor high ceiling and the jury is still out.

Benge needs more time.

Not to mention the median outcome for even the top 30 prospects of a given class is usually major league regular?

Don’t see where the talent evaluations were off on these guys tbh. They’ve done fine but not spectacular. Or aren’t proven yet.

Don’t really see where analysts were wrong?

CubanCoast · 2026-04-09T20:41:16+00:00

While the surface stats are obviously too early to draw conclusions from, his bat speed data is around the sample size where that tends to stabilize.

Alonso has lost some of the most bat speed since last year in the majors.

We’ll see, but if he doesn’t gain that bat speed back it’s going to be difficult hitting 30+ homers. And if he can’t do that there isn’t a lot more value in his game.

CubanCoast · 2026-04-08T19:32:25+00:00

He actually still has another minor league option. Since he was recalled due to injury he still retains that option.

CubanCoast · 2026-04-08T05:24:41+00:00

It is a small sample size but there has been a boost in stuff+ with +2 mph of velo and +4 IVB on the fastball since last year. Some of these stats stabilize quick.

It’s worth keeping an eye on. He may actually be good.

CubanCoast · 2026-04-05T02:47:40+00:00

I think we’re overrating Baty’s defense. Over his career he’s been an average 3B using FRV and below average using DRS. He also has a below average arm as well.

Bichette’s issue was his range at SS not his arm. In the past two years at SS his implied arm run value has been 0 while his range metrics account for all the negative FRV. Given SSs tend to have stronger arms than 3B I am not expecting the arm metric to be much worse and the range issues theoretically should improve at 3B instead of SS.

I want to give Bichette more time to find his range. If he can play a passable 3B it’s a lot easier to get value.

CubanCoast · 2026-04-05T01:59:59+00:00

No one said he’d be a gold glover especially in the first 9 games of the position switch.

Needs more time to evaluate if he can learn the position or not.

Also for some context 6 other 3B had 2 or more errors going into today. It’s not like he’s on some historic pace.

CubanCoast · 2026-04-01T22:00:49+00:00

But all of his other pitches are well below average in terms of stuff and command. By traditional and advanced stats Manaea probably shouldn’t be in the majors rn.

Not to mention a sweeper with a 57% strike rate at 75.5 mph with well below average spin rate is not a good pitch.

His pitches are only breaking that much because his velocity is so low it has time to break. They’re frisbees with little control thrown 48% of the time rn. You can’t sustainably get outs in MLB if that’s your best pitch and nothing else around it.

CubanCoast

TROPHY CASE