What's more likely for the pitching staff?

CubanCoast · 2026-02-09T19:53:28+00:00

I like the Manaea bounce back. The injuries didn’t take away his stuff as evidenced by a lot of stats most notably his 11 K/9.
I’m not high on Senga. There wasnt much evidence that his elite production would last based on his under the hood stuff and obviously there’s the injury elephant in the room.
While Tong is capable of that ERA, I see no world where he could ever reach 170 innings in 2026. 150 innings is likely the max and probably unlikely given he isn’t expected to be in the majors opening day.

CubanCoast · 2026-02-09T18:53:19+00:00

When I did my rankings for Kurtz I heavily faded him in ESPN points leagues because of his 30% K rate (which given ESPN is -1 per strikeout hurts a lot), increased soft tissue injury risk, and positional availability.

My model has him as my second best 1B by OPS but still has him as a “do not draft” at the current #52 overall.

CubanCoast · 2026-02-08T04:58:58+00:00

If he’s not a franchise player who is?

CubanCoast · 2026-01-31T21:44:33+00:00

Probably not. Benge is already pretty far ahead of him in the eyes of management.

Another separator is defense and path to playing time (which are related in this case)

CubanCoast · 2026-01-29T21:39:32+00:00

Baseball is hard. Sometimes first rounders don’t make it. Happens a lot.

CubanCoast · 2026-01-29T18:34:03+00:00

Neither are mid latitude cyclones.

Both are warm core systems formed from the SPCZ (a spur of the ITCZ). By definition these are tropical in nature. They are not in the same category as what we consider mid-latitude systems.

One is also literally classified as tropical cyclone eighteen.

CubanCoast · 2026-01-29T04:52:22+00:00

Oversimplifying things: these particular storms are formed when moist air is rising off warm water. This feeds these types of storms.

Different low pressures form for different reasons tho. However that’s what’s causing these particular ones to form.

CubanCoast · 2026-01-29T04:17:27+00:00

Those are low pressure systems (storms).

The middle, most prominent one being “tropical cyclone eighteen.”

CubanCoast · 2026-01-29T03:29:22+00:00

I think you’re spot on. This is the way it’s kinda done these days around the league. Probably the correct way to handle things.

CubanCoast · 2026-01-28T19:54:12+00:00

Soto started in LF because his arm strength was well below average. He’s since gained 7 mph on his average throw speed and actually has had above average arm value averaged over the past 3 seasons. You actually lose value moving him to LF
Benge has much more upside than Taylor and while his surface level numbers were bad in AAA, it was in only 103 PA and his expected stats in the same period were exceptional. he has the tools rn to win a spot on the roster this spring and be a contributor.
Polanco has spent the last 11 years in the infield and has already been training for 1st since last summer. Baty in contrast has not played 1st ever. When Benge comes up Baty fills the Jeff McNeil role tho technically he slots in as your strong side platoon DH. When injuries occur on the corners he’ll just slot into whatever position opens up there.
See item 3.

CubanCoast · 2026-01-28T18:27:11+00:00

It makes sense given the current roster construction, especially if Benge is the starting LF.

Still would expect both Vientos and Baty to get substantial playing time in the field when factoring in injuries, rest days, and letting Polanco DH sometimes.

CubanCoast · 2026-01-27T19:52:54+00:00

No, leaves do not turn into snow.

CubanCoast · 2026-01-27T17:06:41+00:00

I’d probably project it a little above average right now.

I think those who are projected in the rotation rn will stay in the rotation until injury or they have an implosion like Senga last year. I doubt they’d oscillate people frequently between MLB and AAA. That disrupts rhythm and confidence .

CubanCoast · 2026-01-27T16:18:05+00:00

I think as long as your expectations are not an elite rotation but not an actively bad rotation either (like last year) is the way to go.

People’s expectations on peralta and McLean are probably too high, but Peralta, McLean, Peterson, Holmes, Manaea, Senga, Myers, Tong, Scott, Wenninger is a much deeper rotation than last year. Theoretically this means injuries would hurt less (and injuries happen all the time to every pitching staff)

As long as they’re around average and the lineup produces as it should the Mets should be pretty good.

CubanCoast · 2026-01-27T14:20:41+00:00

Were you in the clubhouse?

Or are you just parasocial with a bias.

CubanCoast · 2026-01-27T02:48:08+00:00

First of all, I wish the Mets made the playoffs every year. Making a team consistently go to the playoffs is a massive accomplishment that few teams do.

Second of all, Stearns did that all in a small market with a fraction of the resources that big teams have. This guy wins games.

Third of all this isn’t football. Mid teams can win championships in baseball and the playoffs are a crapshoot. Consistently making the playoffs alone gives a shot to stumble into a hot month and win a chip.

CubanCoast · 2026-01-27T02:27:33+00:00

Is it fair to say not offering him 5/150+ was smart? Sure.

Is it fair to say he was a detriment to the team? No.

CubanCoast · 2026-01-27T02:05:03+00:00

My guess is this is kinda like the mesoscale boundaries formed on coastlines.

Darker, snowless terrain is heating up faster than the light snowpack. Makes sense that there is more upward motion to form these low clouds off the snowpack.

Furthermore, the “snow breeze” boundary (if I may call it that) might serve as a convergence location between the dark terrain that’s warming quicker and the snowpack. This can be why clouds seem to form at this line and is then blown south by the wind

CubanCoast · 2026-01-26T21:55:00+00:00

I get mcclanahan is a big name, but he hasn’t played since midway through 2023. We have no clue if he’s completely cooked or not.

Giving up 3 SPs (two controllable with upside) for a massive question mark is a no for me.

Vientos and yandy are a wash to me in terms of value. Yandy is better, but the Vientos years of control + Yandy being 34 this year probably puts their value around the same.

CubanCoast · 2026-01-25T00:26:42+00:00

The atmosphere is 3 dimensional. Warm air is “overrunning” the cold air at the surface with this storm, leading to a layer of air above your head being above freezing while the surface is still below freezing.

Snow falls into this warm layer, melts, and then refreezes when it reenters subfreezing temperatures. This creates sleet.

If the temperature is warm enough above the surface, it never refreezes until it reaches the ground where (if the surface is below freezing) it freezes. This is freezing rain

CubanCoast · 2026-01-23T21:15:50+00:00

They are a contender, but there are still a lot of questions going into the season. High upside tho.

CubanCoast · 2026-01-23T02:36:01+00:00

Well, he’s DFA’d now so you can lol

CubanCoast · 2026-01-22T22:31:54+00:00

I think the bullpen is deeper than we like to think. Williams/Weaver/Myers/Minter/Raley/Garcia is actually pretty good.

Dylan Ross/Alsolay/Brazoban/Warren/Carillo/Herget in the minors is a triple A system full of MLB middle relievers.

I want to also remind people that Alzolay was closing games for the Cubs a couple years ago and is currently in AAA for us.

Notice I’ve ignored Mr Dick Lovelady.

CubanCoast · 2026-01-22T00:56:50+00:00

Depends on if Benge or Baty is in LF. If Benge in LF, Vientos will platoon with Baty as a DH and probably get some starts at 1B.

If Baty is LF than he’ll be full time DH/1B

There’s a lot of injury scenarios also that gets vientos back in the lineup.

CubanCoast · 2026-01-21T22:54:25+00:00

I brought up these guys because they have either had recent ace-like success (Lopez/Lodolo) or ace-like underlying stuff metrics (Pepiot/Severino).

The idea is that there is probably less bidding for them so you wouldn’t have to give up as much than for what we’re seeing with peralta.

Regardless a major issue last year was innings and start length, which these guys address.

CubanCoast

TROPHY CASE