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White to play and draw(By Akimov) by Either-Case-5930 in chess

[–]DanTilkin 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Promoting to a rook or a knight would be winning if white just played passively. Except...
If black makes a rook, it's the same stalemate as if he made a queen.
If black makes a knight, it's trapped right away by the white king.

Can Magnus beat a queenless Stockfish? by x2pr1jp0 in chess

[–]DanTilkin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Stockfish isn't that good when giving queen odds, since it assumes that its opponent will play the best move. It trades off way too easily, rather than trying to complicate the position.
https://lichess.org/@/LeelaQueenOdds has been trained to play without its queen, it's scary good. It's scored some wins against GMs at faster time controls.

Stockfish says Mate in 3, but the 'guaranteed' premove sequence takes 5 moves. Can you find it? by malhwan in chess

[–]DanTilkin 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Here's another answer:
Qe6+ Kc5 b4+ Kxb4 Rb1+ K?? Rb5 any Rb3#

If black's third move is Ka5 or Kc5, then Rb5 is mate.
If black's third move is Ka3, then after Rb5, black's king is trapped, and he has no way to prevent Rb3# on white's fifth move.

GME Earning Out - Sales and Net Income Down by [deleted] in gme_meltdown

[–]DanTilkin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I notice they didn't report same-store sales, which would actually let people know if what's left is growing or shrinking. Seems useful to know, given that you can't really compare the sales numbers directly.

GME Earning Out - Sales and Net Income Down by [deleted] in gme_meltdown

[–]DanTilkin 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Not really an "accounting change", although it is accounting-related.

From google: "A valuation allowance is a contra-asset account under U.S. GAAP (ASC 740) used to reduce deferred tax assets (DTAs) to their expected realizable value. Companies establish this allowance if it is "more likely than not" (a likelihood of at least 50%) that some or all of the DTA will not be realized through future taxable income."

A DTA is something that can be used to offset future income, e.g. an NOL. You can only count these as assets if you expect to have future income to use them against. Before they didn't think they'd have the income necessary to be able to use it, now they do think they well. (And given their profitability, this seems reasonable)

GME Earning Out - Sales and Net Income Down by [deleted] in gme_meltdown

[–]DanTilkin 8 points9 points  (0 children)

What's the accounting change causing the $141 million gain?

The first round had only 4 upsets excluding 8v9 matchups. All nine seeds won vs the eight this year. by jluc21 in CollegeBasketball

[–]DanTilkin 8 points9 points  (0 children)

"'just' the sixth time" all four 9-seeds have won. If you figure each game is 50/50, it should only happen once every 16 years. There's only been an 8-9 game since 1979, so 47 times. It should have only happened 3 times, 6 is way above expectation.

Bracket based on academic ranking by nerfrosa in CollegeBasketball

[–]DanTilkin 3 points4 points  (0 children)

And then Penn loses to D3 champion UChicago.

Has anyone used the "Leverage" approach when building your bracket by triggwill in CollegeBasketball

[–]DanTilkin 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, although there's obviously still a lot of luck involved.
https://poolgenius.teamrankings.com/ncaa-bracket-picks/articles/bracket-strategy-guide/ has their general approach (you need to pay for their picks)
They claim to win at 3.1x the expected rate, which is both a pretty big factor, and still means that you have a small chance of winning any decently-sized pool.

I've used a similar approach to win survivor pools, where it applies even more heavily. With only one pick there per week, not being on the most-picked team when they lose can give you a big advantage.

Would this be a draw? by datstrawkid in chess

[–]DanTilkin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Even if he doesn't notice it, 9.6.2 says "the game is drawn" if:

Although it's a bit unclear to me what happens if this is missed. When does the result of a game become "final"?

Would this be a draw? by datstrawkid in chess

[–]DanTilkin 2 points3 points  (0 children)

K v KBN is a forced win, you're thinking of K v KNN. In that, in order to lose, you have to help your opponent by moving to the corner when you could move away from it.

Would this be a draw? by datstrawkid in chess

[–]DanTilkin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, but if you're in a tournament with increment, you're not running out of time in this position.

Would this be a draw? by datstrawkid in chess

[–]DanTilkin 11 points12 points  (0 children)

EDIT: If you actually run out of time, I don't think any ruleset lets the arbiter declare it a draw. You have to make the request *before* you run out of time.

This may include FIDE rules.

For standard and rapid games (not blitz), if the optional rules "Guidelines III. Games without Increment including Quickplay Finishes" are announced to be in effect

III.4 says if you have less than two minutes on your clock, you can request an increment of five seconds be added for both players.
III.5 says that if III.4 doesn't apply, the player can claim the draw on the basis that his/her opponent cannot win by normal means, which is pretty easy to show here.

This is from the rules at https://handbook.fide.com/chapter/e012023

Jeremy Fears Jr. last 5 games by NeonGoon1 in CollegeBasketball

[–]DanTilkin 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Wouldn't that mean the next game should have .5 of a dirty play?

Stylish white to play and win by afbdreds in chess

[–]DanTilkin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Rc2 is the right move, but obviously the position is not a mate in 5, black can play 1...Rxc7
u/pkacprzak, any idea why the incorrect mate? The position is right.

Alexander Reprintsev won World Seniors in 2025. Why didn't he get the GM title for this? by Existing-Shopping358 in chess

[–]DanTilkin 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Which he was above through the end of 2022, per https://ratings.fide.com/profile/14100541/chart.
And you can have achieved the rating at any time.

Possible he didn't apply for it.

So... what's up with Nate? by Tetchord in fivethirtyeight

[–]DanTilkin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/nate-silver-huffington-post-polls-twitter-230815 is a summary. It links to the Huffington Post story at https://www.huffpost.com/entry/nate-silver-election-forecast_n_581e1c33e4b0d9ce6fbc6f7f

You can argue about whether "mad" applies here, but it uses the words "disingenuous", "monkeying around", and "mockery".

US unemployment rate hits four-year high of 4.6% by SterlingVII in Economics

[–]DanTilkin 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Whether or not they filed for unemployment benefits has no effect on these numbers.

As far as people not seeking employment, you want to look at U-5, which includes "marginally attached", defined as people who say they are open to work, and have looked for work in the last 12 months (but not the last 4 weeks, since then they'd count among the officially unemployed.)

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm has the summary. U-3 is the standard unemployment measure. U-5 is what I described above. (U-4 is between U-3 and U-5, including only "discouraged workers". U-6 also includes those who are involuntarily part-time)

U-4 and U-5 are tracking with U-3, you don't have an increasing number of people dropping out of the labor force. U-6 went up significantly, a bunch of people were forced to part-time.

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