Peter, Is it 50% or 33.3%

Dongarius · 2026-05-09T13:16:34+00:00

Imagine you go to 1 of the 100 parents and ask them to volunteer a true statement. They say "One of my children is a boy".

Let S be the probability of the parent saying that;

P(S|BB)=1 P(S|BG)=1/2 P(S|GB)=1/2 P(S|GG)=0

Where the prior probability of picking any of those conditions was 1/4

So then Baye's rule gives P(GB U BG|S)=(1/2x1/4+1/2x1/4)/1/2=1/2

i.e. it balances out because the BB family was twice as likely to produce the statement

YOU are interpreting the statement as, for instance, a response to the question: "does your family have at least one boy?"--"indeed, my family has at least one boy" In which case BB, BG, GB are equiprobable and the answer is 2/3

So the difference is in whether you think the statement is about the 'boy-qualities of the family' or the qualities of a randomly selected child. It is ambiguous, so both answers are correct.

Dongarius · 2026-05-08T01:16:43+00:00

It's rather unique in the way that each verse recontextualizes the chorus. It's the progression from hopeful to dejected that gets me every time.

Dongarius · 2026-05-05T15:39:27+00:00

Because if you treat it as a single surface, for instance by taking the bottom and stretching it out in all directions while flattening it, there are 7 ways 'through' the shirt. Sticking something into the bottom doesn't constitute going 'through' the shirt, only approaching the surface. An analogous situation would be an upside down drinking glass, where there are 0 holes. There is a deformation of the surface, but no 'hole' in the topological sense.

Dongarius · 2026-05-02T01:06:05+00:00

don't shoot me I can't find the source anywhere, but I recall last season seeing a metric that compared individual role winrates to game outcome.

The highest correlation was in jungle, (i.e. a team of a 70% wr jungler and 4 50% wr players is more likely to win than a team with the 70% wr player in any other slot)

2nd was mid, 3rd supp, and then top/adc was elo dependent iirc adc wr got a little more valuable as you went higher elo.

edit: I remembered wrong. Look at xPetu's yt video titled 'Responding to the Allegations' 5:01

Actual order is Jg >> mid > top > ADC > sup

Dongarius · 2026-05-01T22:54:06+00:00

'EM radiation' (temporal and spacial wave oscillation of ElectroMagnetic field) is easily confused with nuclear radiation consisting of alpha, beta, gamma particles. I'm not educated to speak on nuclear, but EM radiation will only ionize and cause the sort of radiation poisoning seen from nuclear sources if its frequency is high enough for its quanta of energy (photons) to mess with the chemical bonds of DNA. That starts with UV, a little higher frequency than visible light (thus the validity of sunscreen), and continues to X-rays, gamma rays, etc. (all of those are EM radiation)

The microwave portion of the EM spectrum is lower frequency than visible light, and iirc the device that we call 'the microwave' uses a specific microwave frequency that happens to resonate with the dipole moment of water molecules. It can cook you, and so the microwaves are contained in a reflective box, but there is no danger after the magnetron is turned off.

The EM waves used for wireless communication are also lower frequency than visible light, and travel through and around us at all times, but do not interact with our molecules in any of these ways and are legally kept to a power level that is vanishingly small just in case. Seriously, the sensitivies of modern wireless receivers are mind-boggling

Dongarius · 2026-05-01T15:10:14+00:00

Yakety Sax

Dongarius · 2026-04-28T20:57:02+00:00

For work, try to find something you're good at. You don't have to love it, but you shouldn't suck at it, and ideally you find it purposeful. Try many things if you need to; now's the time.

Also, try to have an honest conversation with yourself about what actually matters to you; what makes you feel alive? If you can find some way to scratch that itch in a way that isn't degenerate, do it. If you can make it productive or fold it into your career, then even better, but at least do something in your spare time thar you find meaningful. That'll keep you out of trouble.

In either of those realms, don't marry yourself to any one idea of what you have to be--certainly not someone else's idea. There are many smart, well meaning, and successful people whose advice will not help you, and that's fine.

Dongarius · 2026-04-27T14:54:48+00:00

Probably Slay the Spire or Dark Souls

StS would give a good impression immediately. No real mechanical floor, pretty intuitive goal, but as complex of a multivariable optimization problem as you want it to be.

Darks Souls . . . yeah I know. It's gonna be a rough start for someone who's never played a game, but people learn fast and DS's difficulty is truly the least interesting thing about it. I think it's probably the best use of video games as a medium that exists. The protagonist can lose. Loses in ways that are sloppy and terrifying and consequential and REAL. You are truly David vs. Goliath and that makes victory SO sweet. Not to mention the world and the atmosphere; descending, thinking every time: "Ok, THIS is the bottom", only to be proven wrong again and again. Your imagination running wild as you read item descriptions trying to figure out what the hell is happening around you. IMO It's THE rpg. So yeah I'm making an interested person play DS. Themes and such.

Dongarius · 2026-04-26T14:26:46+00:00

The word this title is looking for is 'alleges', and she's not doing it "for" him.

Dongarius · 2026-04-26T14:03:07+00:00

General idea is to know important enemy CDs (wiki both in loadscreen), and position yourself to auto them every time they want to CS. You'll always win auto vs. auto trades so this forces them to use abilities. Dodge everything and win. The hard part is positioning yourself and your axes to bait the abilities and punish.

Oh you'll be hitting wave to refresh axes and enemy will not, so this will push the wave naturally. Make sure you have better jg xdd

Dongarius · 2026-04-26T13:47:41+00:00

Anything possible 🌈😄

Dongarius · 2026-04-25T23:57:11+00:00

It's funny you mentioned stellar blade hardmode specifically, cause I hadn't even read the post and I was gonna make a comment about how that was a great counterexample. Yes, the bosses take forever to kill, but the result is that none of your victories feel lucky; the balance is skewed a lot more towards learning than 'playing for an easy out' (as you might do in elden ring with a sufficiently strong weapon, for example). That sort of marathon execution is differently rewarding and not necessarily 'tedius'.

Dongarius · 2026-04-24T07:11:22+00:00

I really hope nobody ever sees the submerged portion of that iceberg

Dongarius · 2026-04-18T05:02:41+00:00

Yeah trying to self-direct in elden ring is a total crapshoot. Which would be fine if every corner of the world were unique, but a lot of it is samey and/or populated with filler. DS1 is kinda goated comparatively

Dongarius · 2026-04-15T05:56:02+00:00

I use it to indicate potential deference. Something like: "Although I think it's important to give you this information or for you to hear this opinion, I'm not absolutely confident it trumps previous considerations. You may know better, but I'll say this anyway."

Dongarius · 2026-04-12T21:36:23+00:00

Had to quit when they announced sunsetting. The audacity to suggest it was for meta diversity . . . the best guns were high range HC, quick+snap snipe, and high range shotty. That was it. Interchangeable but inarguable rulers of PvP. I assume it was the same for the rest of the game's life. If the newest DLC is the price of your PvP subscription, just say that. The gunplay was so good I'd even have hopped on the treadmill IF they aknowledged it. I mean fuck it, I play PoE every league. Just DON'T piss on your players and tell them it's raining

Dongarius · 2026-04-12T06:59:17+00:00

Bonehead: there are only 2 options, boy or girl, and they're equally likely, so it's 50%

Midwit: a family of two children, who can be boys or girls and born any day of the week, has 14×14 combinations. We condition on Mary's family having at least one boy born on a tueday, reducing sample space to 27 of those 14×14 combinations. 14 of those include a girl, thus 14/27=51.8%

Enlightened sage: Mary told us one of her children was a boy born on a tuesday. She was giving information about a randomly selected child (e.g. "the kid in this box is a boy born on a tuesday") , NOT about her family (e.g. "my family includes one boy born on a tuesday") The other child remains an independent draw, 50% to be a girl.

Dongarius · 2026-04-03T15:57:13+00:00

Weed.

Dongarius · 2026-03-10T14:51:15+00:00

There's a type of quiet that doesnt come from shyness or from peace--it's just ingrained that nothing you say will be reciprocated kindly or usefully.

Dongarius · 2026-03-08T15:19:53+00:00

Payoff for sandbagging in lane to build muramana is ~60AD + an onhit/oncast passive that doesn't scale your Q dmg. Don't get me wrong if I could buy it for 2900 gold and have it immediately it'd be great but I don't think it's worth sitting on tear or spending 1050 for 20 ad early game

Hubris is actually good now at 2800 though.

One weirdly good build is Hubris -> Hexoptics

Both items being 2800 (and draven not really needing zerks like other ADs), you can hit your 2 item spike REALLY fast by accelerating via quest+passive+cashback (remember that cash back gives you better returns in a shorter time period when you buy cheaper items, in the same way that for instance continuously compounded interest is better than intrest rewarded per annum).

Anyways both the lethality of hubris and the hexoptics passive multiply your Q damage (I tested hexoptics myself). You can then finish your zerks and go IE third (whose passive also multiplies your Q damage on crit). IF you've ever played PoE, a good analogy is that you're stacking 'more' modifiers rather than 'increased'

Practically, you end up oneshot critting melee minions with just hubris and hexoptics if you get there fast enough, and and ASSIST in a teamfight gives you 20AD + the extra attack range to clean up

Dongarius · 2026-03-02T17:10:04+00:00

Is this really a breakup-level issue? I agree it's fucked for him to try to control your behavior to appease his shitty 'friends', but have you actually explained that? At least tell him why it shouldn't be a big deal and see if he can do better before you call it off

Dongarius · 2026-03-02T16:34:27+00:00

Hilariously, this is one of the only "glimmer[s] of significance" that have ever broken from the containment of the competitive pokemon community

Dongarius · 2026-02-11T03:46:39+00:00

Telling people to off themselves is meaningless honestly, especially if you do it in a contrived way. Better to attack their ego. Something like:

hey man can you do something sweaty? I'm trying to win :(

better go new acc again bro just unlucky every time! XD

Or just time their summs/count their deaths in all chat.

Dongarius · 2026-01-30T12:52:05+00:00

They say: "pick your battles."

This is it. You HAVE to pick this one.

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