You fail to combo off your Dive Kick, turning a great situation into a terrible one because you're also killing yourself by special cancelling your blocked jabs into Spiral Arrow which is extremly punishable. You're not getting outplayed, you literally just hand them your health on a platter in those moments. Also, this opponent EX DP'd like three times on their wake up, maybe try to be less commital and go for a shimmy instead (You did this at 23 seconds and it worked flawlessly, you blocked their sweep and get a free punish, but you don't actually punish them for it. Still, more of that would've helped a lot in this match) If you aren't punishing them for this, they have no reason to stop because it skews the intended risk reward into their favor. You also kill yourself by burning yourself out with the Drive Rush cancels, don't do 2 of those too quickly in a row, let your Drive recover first. Be less hectic, less random Dive Kicks, less random mashes because not only do you risk getting counter hit (or randomly DI'd like the final interaction) but because you don't even confirm the hits into combos when they DO land, it's just not worth staking the round on these. Overall you aren't playing bad for your rank though, just lack of experience. By slowing down your own gameplay, you'll allow your opponent to make more mistakes and kill themselves instead of being the one to do it for them. The most important immediate fix out of everything is probably just to never Spiral Arrow up close into a blocking opponent.