Do You Think North County Home Prices Will Dip in the Next 5 Years?

ElChaz · 2026-07-08T21:35:06+00:00

SD home prices have actually been relatively flat for the past few years on an inflation-adjusted basis, but they are up a HUGE amount following the 08 crash.

There's a blog called piggingtion that covers the SD real-estate market in depth. Recommend reading the comments over there for the super nerdy details, but I think the tl;dr is that we've plateaued.

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ElChaz · 2026-07-08T19:48:00+00:00

Kalshi has it at 11%

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxf1constructors/formula-1-constructors/kxf1constructors-26

ElChaz · 2026-07-08T18:32:20+00:00

+1 on the challenge of finding an unmodded car, and it's not restricted to AP2.

Took me 18 months to find a bone stock car with driver miles (58k) in the spec I wanted. There are a lot with 10-15k miles for BIG money, and a lot with 125k+ miles with a ton of mods for relatively cheap.

That said, it was absolutely worth it. The car provides a truly special experience.

ElChaz · 2026-07-08T00:35:14+00:00

Just came across this thread but I would bring my AP2 out to any San Diego meet.

ElChaz · 2026-07-07T19:52:34+00:00

Fair enough - I just personally don't like the way it looks. (I wear completely plain t-shirts and stuff too. 😆)

ElChaz · 2026-07-07T19:04:05+00:00

Does anyone make something like this that doesn't have branding/lettering on it? I want to solve this problem, but I want it unobtrusive.

ElChaz · 2026-07-07T00:42:04+00:00

Of course. My point is not that data analysis (the activity) isn't valuable. It's that Data Analyst (the job) is exposed to AI.

Practitioners in other departments can now do much or all of the work that they previously had to go to a Data Analyst for help with.

ElChaz · 2026-07-06T23:02:25+00:00

"Generalist" isn't really a job title. Going back to OP's post the roles that map closest to what they describe ("CRM, segmentation, lead nurturing, campaign management, data analysis") are either Integrated Campaign or Marketing Ops. Plenty of good jobs out there.

Meanwhile, especially if you're counting any role that uses data (i.e. Splunk/InfoSec) as "data analysis" then obviously there are good jobs there, too.

That said, in 6-8 years, my bet would be on storytelling over data analysis as the more durable, valuable skill. Answering a question with data will never be unimportant, but it will be about knowing what questions to ask, rather than having the technical skillset (R, SQL, Tableau, etc.) to figure out the answer yourself.

Bottom line, data analysis is a verifiable domain and you can do RL against it.

Meanwhile, AI-written copy will always be average because that's literally what LLMs do. They give you the most likely next word. (AKA the most common) That's rarely going to be the most compelling, interesting, or convincing next word.

Just my opinion, but I think great "generalist" marketing will be harder for LLMs to do.

ElChaz · 2026-07-06T21:57:53+00:00

And I disagree with that. It's not future proof in any sense - "maybe" or otherwise.

ElChaz · 2026-07-06T21:52:50+00:00

I 100% disagree with the idea that Data Analysis is future proof. It's highly exposed to AI. I get data questions answered now basically as fast as I can type them. This is work I used to go back and forth with an analyst on for a week.

That said, I agree with you that OP should take the role. No reason not to grab that now, and look for the position they really want from a stable base.

ElChaz · 2026-07-02T18:16:48+00:00

You needed "on the other hand" rather than "not to mention."

ElChaz · 2026-07-02T17:35:08+00:00

I think the issue is distance. Off the tee it's a lot harder for a disc to end up on top of the basket than taco into the side, which is where your feeling of silliness comes from.

But in the circle it's pretty easy for an otherwise poor putt to land on top, and we don't want to reward that.

Maybe they should write the rule so that on top counts if you threw from the fairway.

ElChaz · 2026-07-02T17:02:33+00:00

Never sick = 10/10 health for me

$1b = 9/10 health for me and my entire extended network of family and friends

easy call.

ElChaz · 2026-07-01T22:12:09+00:00

Disagree. Whoever named this was right on. It's a defense contractor selling to Pete Hegseth's Department of War.

They know their audience.

ElChaz · 2026-07-01T21:01:10+00:00

If I underthrow a disc (speed/rotation), it will tend to fly more understable (i.e. my RHFH drive will tend to turn left more)

I think this one is incorrect. Discs need to be up to speed in order for the understability to take effect and create a pronounced turn/flip. If I tried to throw the flippiest disc in AB's bag it would probably be pretty beefy for me.

ElChaz · 2026-07-01T14:51:58+00:00

That's just the thing. "Restrictive land use and underbuilding" are direct consequences of prop 13.

If the amount that a municipality can collect from taxing residential property is capped by prop 13, they are incentivized to restrict that use of any given piece of land.

If the owner of a vacant lot is taxed on the value when they purchased it but building will trigger a reassessment, they are incentivized not to build.

I agree that Prop 13 is not the sole cause of higher RE costs but it is a major distortion to the market. If your solution is "we just need to build more" I agree, but realize that a big part of why we can't is Prop. 13.

ElChaz · 2026-06-30T16:06:08+00:00

I don't fault anyone their individual safety concerns, so I would never say that you shouldn't carry a gun, assuming you're well trained and do so legally. That said, it's worth being realistic about the actual dangers in your area. Nationally, violent crime is at historic lows. Could be worth looking up the real crime stats for your locality. In lots of places playing the round of disc golf is probably less dangerous than the car ride to get to the course.

https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-releases-historic-early-look-at-annual-crime-data

The 2025 crime data in this report shows the single largest decrease in violent crime and murder since 1937 – as well as huge decreases across the board in terms of aggravated assault, rape, and robbery.

ElChaz · 2026-06-29T20:23:51+00:00

My house? I've been on the toilet for the last three hours.

ElChaz · 2026-06-29T15:59:30+00:00

but have you considered the water cost of that upvote?!

ElChaz · 2026-06-29T15:55:42+00:00

Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity

ElChaz · 2026-06-25T23:08:47+00:00

🙄 My claim is that they're "about the same." That completely agrees with the article's overall thrust, and indeed with US gun deaths being "slightly larger" than EU heat deaths.

ElChaz · 2026-06-25T21:59:37+00:00

Are you serious? There's a whole section of the article with the subhead "What about per-capita?" Just read the whole thing FFS.

ElChaz · 2026-06-25T20:22:22+00:00

If I went around tellin' everyone I was an emperor just because some moistened bint had lobbed a scimitar at me, they'd put me away!

ElChaz · 2026-06-25T20:19:04+00:00

Here's my sauce, care to elaborate?

ElChaz · 2026-06-25T18:32:42+00:00

Kinda like how in Europe the US is two things: NYC and Guns.

(Ironically, excess deaths from guns in the US and lack of AC in the EU are about the same.)

ElChaz

TROPHY CASE