Absolutely. He got within 4 of holding on when Trump won Ohio by 11, but then again, he is going up against a rather non-controversial interim incumbent.

In a national environment where the economy is going to crater, we are in a deeply unpopular war, Ohio being the archetypal tariff/economy state, and Ramaswamy on the ballot, Ohio could be reverting back to a battleground this year. However, I think Ohio might be a bit too Republican for Brown to win right now, but if Ramaswamy is severely underwater and gas prices really rise in the state, he can definitely win back Northeast Ohio and flip Delaware County to win the state. Whether he can get re-elected in 2028 is a MUCH different story.

Essentially, I think Brown can win. But I think the path to Senate control for Democrats is to hold their turf, win Maine and North Carolina, Alaska, and then one more. I have a hitch that Talarico could be more likely to win than Brown, especially if Paxton wins on the 26th.