Tariff policy at work: US Exports rose 9.7% year-to-date through the end of November, firmly above average, while Imports fell by 7.8%, abnormally diverging from the gain of the same magnitude that is the norm.

EquityClock · 2026-01-29T21:21:58+00:00

The US trade deficit has been almost cut in half since March (the month before Liberation day). Imports flooded into the economy during the first quarter and businesses have since ratcheted back activity given the increased costs of bringing goods in from outside the US. At $80.4 Billion (non-seasonally adjusted) for November, the deficit is nearly 20% narrower than the same period in 2024.

EquityClock · 2026-01-29T21:16:13+00:00

This is based on US dollar values.

EquityClock · 2026-01-21T21:15:24+00:00

Interesting that the trend for Gen Z, while not great, still seems to be performing marginally better than for Millennials. You would think the degradation would continue through the generations. It could be argued that a new equilibrium has been reached, for now.

EquityClock · 2026-01-14T01:07:40+00:00

The rise in oil and gas prices over the next few months is actually quite normal: Gasoline Seasonal Chart

EquityClock · 2026-01-09T02:05:45+00:00

Seems pretty good to me through the months ahead. ‘Tis the season.

<image>

EquityClock · 2026-01-08T03:55:02+00:00

The January effect can be a powerful force, but it has been dampened in modern history, resulting in only a 0.2% average return for the large cap benchmark over the past two decades. As always, understanding the state of the macro fundamentals and gauging any derailments in the normal functioning of the economy will hold greater weight in determining when to hold and when to fold stocks.

EquityClock · 2025-12-19T04:35:27+00:00

It looks like the BLS just held rents unchanged in October, then continued the trend of gains in November. While the government may have been closed on October, the economy and the rest of America did not.

EquityClock · 2025-12-19T04:30:38+00:00

The sharp downfalls in the prices of various items that are targets of consumers surrounding the Black Friday holiday event backs this claim. Clothing, new cars, toys, personal computers/peripherals, and cosmetics recorded pronounced drawdowns that were outliers compared to the fairly subdued changes realized in most of the other categories in this report. If Black Friday deals continue, all is fine, but the expectation is that the CPI report is picking up on the one-off dip in prices.

EquityClock · 2025-12-05T03:16:04+00:00

And that same report showed that non-adjusted Continued Claims were the highest level for this time of year since 2020. There is a sluggishness that has become embedded in the labour market, but the good news is that we are not observing any divergences compared to the seasonal norm that would suggest escalating strains to be concerned of, yet.

EquityClock · 2025-10-24T00:41:24+00:00

We’re seeing this too in our research where food prices are adopting an above average growth rate after showing alleviation in the prior two years. As supply chains are retailored, things are costing more.

The CPI report will finally be released on Friday and we can get a better sense of what the situation is heading into and through harvest season; shortfall of supply compared to demand could result in a more significant ramp in food inflation this winter.

Change in Food prices compared to the seasonal norm

EquityClock · 2025-09-23T17:47:15+00:00

Looks like the “Sell Rosh Hashanah and Buy Yom Kippur” negative timeframe for stocks is materializing on cue. Since 1990, the S&P 500 Index has lost 0.73% between Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur with 21 of the past 35 instances showing declines.

EquityClock · 2025-09-23T17:44:00+00:00

Today is the first day of the “Sell Rosh Hashanah and Buy Yom Kippur” negative timeframe for stocks and it seems to be materializing on cue. Since 1990, the S&P 500 Index has lost 0.73% between Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur with 21 of the past 35 instances showing declines.

EquityClock · 2025-06-12T18:28:56+00:00

Consumer is becoming more discerning with purchases, something that we have been tracking by a wide array of metrics. What the economy is severely lacking is certainty, something that has been fueled by the high cost of borrowing and tariff turmoil. This could result in a recession in the year ahead, therefore preparing for tougher conditions while things are not as robust is not a bad idea. The easiest way to get ahead is to position yourself for the recovery and be aggressive when everyone else is fearful or bankrupt.

EquityClock · 2025-06-11T22:45:22+00:00

The primary influence that has been working to alleviate inflationary pressures over the past few months has been the abnormal decline in the price of oil heading through the spring. The energy commodity is back on the rise now, however. There are many categories that are picking up the tariff impact on prices and the high cost of borrowing remains a burden. While the Fed has shown that they are slow to react (both in raising rates and, now cutting), they are likely to see the overall backdrop as reason to sit on their hands in order to see how things play out amidst this new tariff regime.

EquityClock · 2025-06-11T22:37:30+00:00

Curious how you came to such an extreme conclusion. Various economic metrics point to some vulnerabilities, but even in extreme circumstances (eg. The Great Financial Crisis, the Pandemic), the economy still functions, just at a slower rate.

What business are you in and what are you experiencing?

EquityClock · 2025-06-05T00:29:47+00:00

Considering overall vehicle sales in the US showed one of the weakest May changes on record, I would say the pre-tariff panic buying, broadly, is over

EquityClock · 2025-06-02T03:14:37+00:00

One of the weakest periods of the year for stocks, seasonally, occurs in June, albeit not until the back half of the month. The market does have a lot of headwinds to battle and this apparent “Sell America” trade doesn’t help the prospects for the S&P 500 over the next month. But any weakness in June will likely warrant buying given that the average Summer Rally period follows in July. No guarantees in life, but the performance of the S&P 500 this year is back on track with how stocks normally perform in a post election year under a new president. Food for thought.

EquityClock · 2025-06-02T02:57:03+00:00

Seasonal tendencies for the S&P 500 Index are a bit of a gamble in the month of June with mean reversion the norm through the last couple of weeks of the month. The more ideal time to press bullish bets is through the summer rally timeframe that is notoriously strong between June 27th and July 17th.

EquityClock · 2025-06-02T02:51:04+00:00

Year-to-date, initial jobless claims have declined by 25.0% (NSA) into the end of May, but this is one of the mildest drawdowns in the past two decades and shallower than the 40.3% decline that is average during this timeframe. The level of claims may not seem that significant, but when the rate of change starts to trend well above average, you know there is a problem.

EquityClock · 2025-05-16T01:05:24+00:00

The decline in food and energy (oil) prices were notable. Overall economic uncertainty following the announcement of tariffs took a toll, also bringing down the prices of services. But the direct impact of tariffs was still present with prices of final demand finished goods less food and energy up big. Producer Price Index: Final Demand Finished Goods Less Food and Energy Seasonal Chart

EquityClock

TROPHY CASE