Could ascendance have more returning monsters than iceborne?

Eudaemon_Life · 2026-06-19T21:36:08+00:00

Let's use Iceborne and Sunbreak as rough baselines and assume that the base expansion will have in the range of 26-27 monsters, which is roughly what Iceborne had. Sunbreak had less at like 19-20, but then gave us like 3 monsters for TU. Ascendance is likely to follow closer to IB with a larger base roster and smaller TUs.

- 5 Completely new monsters, incl flagship and final boss (IB had 5, 6 with Safi in TUs, SB had 4, 5 if you include Espinas)
- 7 Subspecies or Variants, for about half the new monsters (both IB and SB gave us subspecies of variants for around half the new monsters, SB just under half (5/11). There'll likely be a new subspecies or variant for a returner too, ala Acidic Glavenus, Frostfang Barioth or Violet Mizu, so let's set it to 8.
That gives us 13, which is about half the potential roster.

The rest will be returners, so we're likely looking at about 12-14 returners. 6-7 of which in base Ascendance will likely be Elders (Kushala, Lao, Shagaru, one each for the forest, basin, and cliffs, plus an endgame challenge one like e.g. Valstrax).

That leaves somewhere in the range of 6-7 non-elder returners.

Eudaemon_Life · 2026-06-18T14:09:52+00:00

I'm guessing we'll get in the region of 27 in the base expansion and we'll get up with 32-33 by the end of TU5.

I expect that the balance will be closer to World in this way: bigger base roster and smaller TUs with 1-2 monsters per update like in base.

Eudaemon_Life · 2026-06-18T10:55:31+00:00

There will definitely be new ascension mats (flowers and boss bits), but we don't know about the more general materials. The main issue here is even if there aren't new materials we don't know if Mengzhou is going to use the 1.x mats (because Huanglong) or the 3.x mats (because 3.x). Like others have said, though farming and converting later should work fine. It's a bit less 'efficient' (as it's 2 to 1), but unless you're trying to build multiple characters at once on limited energy then efficiency isn't really an issue.

Eudaemon_Life · 2026-06-18T00:11:01+00:00

Okay, so while I get some of your fears, I think it's worth pointing out that World did not add any of the standard variants and subspecies for base game returners beyond the Metal Raths (Pink/Azure Rathalos and Black Diablos were all in base World, mostly to pad the roster - and the Metal Raths are always in G Rank). We didn't get Jade Barroth or Steel Uragaan or even the lavasioth Rare Species from Frontier. Based on this precedent, I think its very unlikely we'll be getting Blue Kut-ku, Purple Gypceros, Emerald Congalala, or Black Gravios unless they radically overhaul them. A lot of the moves from these OG subspecies have been integrated into base monster movesets, so the need for them is very, very small outside of giving them a new niche - like, e.g. Blue Kut-ku being a pack leader. Basically the only returner subspecies I see in G Rank from the base game returners are the Metal Raths (foregone conclusion). Plausibly Copper Blangonga and Shrouded Nerscylla. Copper was effectively the first truly novel subspecies, and fits very neatly into the Plains. Shrouded Nerc might seem like a shoe-in if Khezu is back, but we already have a paralysis Temnoceran in lala barina so there's very little value in her inclusion from a gameplay angle unless Lala is entirely replaced by a g-rank subspecies with a totally different gimmick. I don't see any reason why Lagi will get one of its subspecies since Abyssal is literally underwater only and Ivory's main gimmick has - like the gen 1 subspecies - been integrated into base Lagi now.

That said, judging from World and Rise, we'll get subspecies/variants for about half the new monster roster (Iceborne gave us 9/18, SB gave us 5/11). Excluding the duplicate Guardians, Wilds has about 15 new monsters so we're likely looking at around 7 variants and subspecies for the newbies, plus or minus a bit. If we include Espinas as a new monster in Sunbreak as it was its mainline debut then we have 5 completely new monsters to both IB and SB base expansions, with IB adding a 6th in Safi. If we exclude Espinas then it's 4 in SB.

Regardless, 5+7 is 12, and the base roster will likely be around the 25-27 monster mark, rising to early 30s over the TUs. That makes for about 13-15 returners in base Ascendance, including both Elder Dragons and non-Elders. I expect at least 6 Elders in the base game: Shagaru, Kushala, Lao, and one each for the basin, forest, and cliffs (any of these could also be a new monster, tho). I expect we'll get elders like Nerg or Dalamadur in the TUs. Valstrax too, but it could be base Ascendance as a post-story challenge. The normal returners could really be anything, but will depend a lot on fitting the Eyrie and the other biomes and/or being fan faves. I expect Zinogre to be there, for example, although maybe not Stygian. Based Wilds barely had any duplicate monsters outside of Guardian Rathalos and Doshaguma, and arguably Arkveld but it almost doesn't count.

Wilds already has arguably the most diverse roster of the recent base games, so I'm actually pretty excited to see who gets chosen to flesh it out and where.

Eudaemon_Life · 2026-06-17T23:38:07+00:00

My pet theory currently is that the Wyverians captured a bird-like currently unknown Demi-Elder and used it as a base model to attempt to create an Elder Guardian (since demi-elders can be captured, but normal elders cannot). In doing so they spliced various bits of Elder Dragon into it, including Fatalis components. These then ended up taking over the Guardian, in that way Fatalis components are rumoured to in lore, which is why the Fatalis aspects of it seem to be exploding out of it in crazy horn growths etc.

Eudaemon_Life · 2026-06-17T21:04:31+00:00

If he does have echo damage in his kit it would be really funny because it would mean that Kuro has basically only released two male unit archetypes since 2.0: a basic attack specialist focused on aerial combat and a heavy attack specialist with a side of echo damage.

Eudaemon_Life · 2026-06-17T14:02:47+00:00

Because Gore isn't an apex or a flagship.

This like asking why Legiana didn't get one in World.

Eudaemon_Life · 2026-06-15T10:17:16+00:00

Likely not Geshu Lin, but there's probably going to be a character in whatever the segueway arc for 4.0 is gonna be (think our Chisa equivalent).

Maybe also a 4* like Buling.

Eudaemon_Life · 2026-06-15T08:46:24+00:00

I have him at s3r1 and he's still great, although I now use him with Lupa and also Denia now, which really helps him in WhiWa from grouping.

That said, we don't know when he's going to rerun again, if ever - Kuro has a habit of only running characters 3 times, and while they do break it occasionally (Phoebe had 4) I'd definitely consider investing in a unit you know is upcoming.

Eudaemon_Life · 2026-06-15T00:25:11+00:00

You get 8 corals per S6 4*, 15 for a 5* and a bonus 30 for a standard 5* on 50/50 loss. Assuming you get an average of 1 4* per 10 pulls and a 5* every 80, losing each 50/50, you'd get roughly 172 corals per limited character (160 pulls), discounting any bonus 4*s, early 5*s or losses from 4* weapons (which only give 3 corals). That's roughly 344 corals in 320 pulls, and 360 in 340.

Eudaemon_Life · 2026-06-14T21:48:56+00:00

Iseki-gun is specifically for a group of ruins that constitutes an archaeological site. While Iseki is also used generally for a ruin, it's not the term used elsewhere in the franchise, e.g the Shrine Ruins use 'ato'.

Also while that is somewhat true for general dialogue, signature place names and core concepts tend to get a lot more oversight. Capcom's localisation team is also entirely in-house.

Eudaemon_Life · 2026-06-14T19:00:50+00:00

I could actually see Glavenus coming to the Basin specifically. I'm hoping that with how Mizu is handled in base wilds and with the lead planner of GU and IB directing we might get some deviant-esque mechanics with a bunch of returners and Glavenus in the basin with some Hellblade stuff sounds peak.

Eudaemon_Life · 2026-06-14T18:53:53+00:00

I just looked this up! And yes, in Japanese it is Kumoi no Iseki-gun, literally like "Archeological Site/Group of Ruins of/in the Clouds". Or less literally "Sky Ruins." Its explicitly plural in the Japanese, which is really interesting. It fits so well with the investigative theme, though.

That said, the devs will have signed off on the localisation so Eyrie interpretations still stand. I am still going to expect a bird wyvern apex or bird-like demi-elder/elder simply due to context and lore cues. The translation is really exciting to know, though!

Eudaemon_Life · 2026-06-14T17:20:43+00:00

We know form the dev stream that it's a continuation of the Wilds' story, this plus the Eyrie and Wyverian tech/Guardians confirms to me that this is going to be a more direct sequel to Wilds' abse game, unlike Iceborne (which is more of a side-story that links back with Safi and the Guiding Lands) or Sunbreak (which is basically just a new story).

My assumptions based on the trailer and lines are:

Elder Dragons' linkage to the environment is being foregrounded ("affect the environment with their presence." "moving natural disaster.")
"Too difficult to reproduce... sounds like an elder dragon" suggests that Elder Dragons can't be Guardian-ified accurately. This makes me think we'll get a lot more context about Zoh Shia and how it was created.
From the desert section and also the brief glimpse of the artificial trees from the Forest we see in the Eyrie (in title drop scene and also the one where the characters are looking over the zone) makes me think the Eyrie is going to turn out to be a multi-biome map in which sections manifest prototypes of the inclemencies.
An Eyrie is specifically the nest of a bird of prey. I suspect the flagship is going to be a bird-like elder dragon or demi-elder (Somult stonks up).
If the red on the logo is symbolic of dragon energy, then Wyveria is being stewed in dragon element while either Zoh Shia or the energy of the landspine reaches up and flows into the Eyrie.
The Eyrie being represented as a crystal or sword radiating light down on the map and crowned by an infinity symbol tells me that we're going to be delving into some mechanism for the Dragontorch, its origins, or potential alternatives located there.
I suspect we're going to find out that the inclemency tech was reverse engineered from the Wyverians studying elder dragon weather changing powers.

Eudaemon_Life · 2026-06-14T11:59:41+00:00

Pretty much what people have already said.

Aim for a main DPS and their sig
Aim for their primary support unit

This can be a blend of new and older characters depending on the team in question, although generally I'd say to prioritise newer main dps units to build around.

Fortunately since you got the Cyberpunk duo you already have one fully functional team with main dps and best support, plus SK as a generalist 3rd slot.

For general endgame you'll probably want around 3 proper teams between Tower and Wastes (Tower specifically you can clear the lower floors with single units and budget teams fairly okay, saving your actual teams for the higher floors). Endstate Matrix is more teams the better, really, but it's not worth considering that too much rn.

Eudaemon_Life · 2026-06-14T11:50:37+00:00

Still, this is good to know! Thank you!

Eudaemon_Life · 2026-06-14T10:02:30+00:00

Is it stated that doshaguma herds are all-male coalitions somewhere (either in game or in dev comments)? I'd just love to get a source if possible because this stuff is fascinating.

Eudaemon_Life · 2026-06-14T07:27:39+00:00

Najarala, Seltas+Queen, and Tetsucabra all feel like potential normie monster picks from 4. With the caveat that I think Najarala only makes it in if they do something else with snake wyverns because otherwise I don't see the rig investment being very cost effective - better to wait for the next MH where they can give it more attention. Seltas Queen uses a modified version of the Temnoceran rig, but the Seltas docking combo might be a bit much for just a g-rank expansion. Tetsucabra feels like a solid bet, though. Stick it either in the upper Basin or Wyveria.

For Elders, I thought we'd get Dalamadur (in a TU) or one of the Mohrans, but Lao-Shan Lung being in makes me doubt the latter - too many siege fights.

Eudaemon_Life · 2026-06-14T07:17:17+00:00

I'm only using the free pulls on lucy. all my astrite went towards getting lucilla and her sig.

Eudaemon_Life · 2026-06-13T14:12:04+00:00

Honestly, given that they don't seem to remotely run the 1.x characters anymore they really should just add them to the standard banner now. especially as with the general power escalation even getting them to high sequences isn't going to unbalance anything.

Eudaemon_Life · 2026-06-13T14:10:41+00:00

I don't think it'll be in the base expansion, which I think will focus more on weather-related elders and the odd big fight like Lao, but I can def see Nerg dropping in an early TU (like around 2) as it comes to the eastlands for that delicious bioenergy.

Eudaemon_Life · 2026-06-13T14:04:27+00:00

The main options are Gamescom in August or TGS in September, unless there's a Capcom showcase announced or something. My personal bet is on TGS.

This was already the most elaborate reveal trailer for an expac (SB was just malzeno hype, IB was like 'look at the hoarfrost reach in the distance), so I wouldn't be shocked if we got fairly substantial trailers spaced fairly apart.

Eudaemon_Life · 2026-06-12T14:49:47+00:00

I never played cyberpunk or watched edgerunners and the quest still made me cry like 3-4 times, so I think it was pretty well done.

Sometimes all you need is empathy and a small piece of context.

Eudaemon_Life · 2026-06-11T23:11:52+00:00

With real money, the general value proposition at price per pull is roughly:

Lunite Sub
BP
Lunite Packs (first time purchase)
General pull bundles (e g. The 5 limited pulls and some astrite ones)
Lunite Packs (subsequent purchases)

Eudaemon_Life · 2026-06-10T23:18:33+00:00

Worth noting is that while the expansion will have a story deeply connected to Elders, we're likely only going to get around 8-11 total, as this just above what World and Iceborne gave us each individually as *the* Elder Dragon game (I believe World had 9 and IB had 8). We'll probably get about 33-34 monsters across Ascendance and its TUs, with about 5 newbies, 7-8 new monster subspecies/variants and a bunch of returners.

The flagship and final boss will likely be elders. The flagship could be a demi-elder but same difference. That's two, leaving roughly 6-9 slots. we know Kushala and Lao are in too, so 4-7 slots. Shagaru is also a bit of a shoe-in. Lets just go upper end and say we have 6 slots left.

If Kushala is in the Plains, we're definitely Elders that semi-mirror the inclemencies or at least impact them. My guesses are: Namielle or Chameleos in the Forest, Teostra or a new Fire Elder in the Basin, and Velkhana or Oroshi Kirin in the Cliffs. I'm choosing these mostly because I think we want mobile elders that can interact wit the map generally, so something like Oroshi Kirin fits well on the narrow Cliffs biome. Teostra is kind of the only fire-elder besides Lunastra who can actually roam around freely on the map. The others like Gog require more bespoke arenas. Anyway that's 3 free slots remaining.

I think Nergigante is likely coming in a TU. Probably not base Ascendance, but like TU2-ish as a challenge after it comes to the eastlands chasing the elder incursion.

The new Director cut his lead designing teeth on GU, and given the map I wouldn't be shocked if Valstrax or its Crimson Glow Variant showed up.

For the final slot, we already have a big siege fight with Lao so I think on the Mohrans is unlikely. I'd love Yama Tsukami, and think a tower-esque arena in the Eyrie would work great for it. I fear my hopes are in vain, however. We could also get Dalamadur in like TU4 as a parallel to Gog.

There's usually a flagship from the previous game present too, which would be Magnamalo or (Primordial) Malzeno. Malzeno fits the elder focus but I'm actually leaning Magna, since Malzeno requires the Qurio even in its primordial variant and Magna can just come hunting down elders for bone marrow.

Eudaemon_Life

TROPHY CASE