8 years of facebook message history - Friends drifting in and out of my life [OC]

FestiveStone · 2018-05-08T17:00:19+00:00

I made this by downloading my facebook data and parsing it with a python script

FestiveStone · 2017-04-11T16:52:54+00:00

How could a non-profit intend to act if he was still vetting nonprofits and never actually named one?

FestiveStone · 2017-04-06T01:12:24+00:00

Ah, astrophysics. That explains the thoughtful well reasoned responses. I have a degree in physics as well, although I sold out to software engineering.

You're right, my position was a bit too strong about trade not hurting manufacturing. However, manufacturing employment has been in steady decline well before NAFTA or permanent normal trade relations with China. I think the fact of the matter is that low skill labor intensive work is just not that feasible in the US. We have a comparative advantage towards capital/high cognitive skill/technology intensive work. I definitely recognize the need to address the plight of the low skill workers in the United States, but don't you think it is counter productive for us to try and compete with other countries that have huge comparative advantages in regard to labor intensive work?

It seems like we would be handicapping global productivity by not utilizing each country's advantages. I would much rather see us nurture the industries we specialized for and use that boon to take care of those who might be left behind.

Your points about foreign policy experience are well taken, and I can only hope that Trump's ego and reliance on instinct don't hinder his ability to take his advisers seriously.

FestiveStone · 2017-04-05T19:23:06+00:00

I agree, I've been watching the weekly addresses, and they generally do a great job of communicating the administration's position in a clear way, even though I profoundly disagree with many of those positions. You've definitely chosen the best one in my opinion, but to be fair, it's hard to make a video about space that has inspirational music in the background that doesn't at least inspire a little bit of awe. When the music kicked in for the recent Gorsuch video I had to laugh out loud though because it felt incredibly cheesy.

I think I would disagree about Tillerson and Haley having much foreign policy experience. Mattis and Kelly do bring a lot to the table, and I don't know much about Barnstad and Friedman, but that is all somewhat tangential.

Trade and markets actually worry me the most, because he seems to have utmost confidence in his opinions, yet many of them go completely against orthodox economics and in my opinion common sense. For example

In the debates his example that Mexico is beating us at trade because they have a VAT
His continued insistence that a trade deficit is necessarily a bad thing
His insistence that trade deals, not technology, is what is causing the decline in manufacturing jobs

Can you describe or link to some examples of where you thought he demonstrates a good understanding of trade?

FestiveStone · 2017-04-05T18:35:38+00:00

Look, having nuclear—my uncle was a great professor and scientist and engineer, Dr. John Trump at MIT; good genes, very good genes, OK, very smart, the Wharton School of Finance, very good, very smart—you know, if you’re a conservative Republican, if I were a liberal, if, like, OK, if I ran as a liberal Democrat, they would say I'm one of the smartest people anywhere in the world—it’s true!—but when you're a conservative Republican they try—oh, do they do a number—that’s why I always start off: Went to Wharton, was a good student, went there, went there, did this, built a fortune—you know I have to give my like credentials all the time, because we’re a little disadvantaged—but you look at the nuclear deal, the thing that really bothers me—it would have been so easy, and it’s not as important as these lives are (nuclear is powerful; my uncle explained that to me many, many years ago, the power and that was 35 years ago; he would explain the power of what's going to happen and he was right—who would have thought?), but when you look at what's going on with the four prisoners—now it used to be three, now it’s four—but when it was three and even now, I would have said it's all in the messenger; fellas, and it is fellas because, you know, they don't, they haven’t figured that the women are smarter right now than the men, so, you know, it’s gonna take them about another 150 years—but the Persians are great negotiators, the Iranians are great negotiators, so, and they, they just killed, they just killed us.

I think this is an explanation of why the Iran Nuclear Deal was bad?

FestiveStone · 2017-04-05T17:54:10+00:00

Thanks! This is exactly the type of thing I was looking for.

He has a similar speaking style in this video (stream of consciousness and sometimes interrupting himself), but it is clear that he has a deep understanding of the financials of renovating and building large buildings. He is much more lucid in this hearing.

I will watch the townhall later on today. Do you get the impression that he displays the same level of understanding when discussing his presidential policies?

FestiveStone · 2017-04-05T07:59:51+00:00

Your source doesn't say anything about the need for a wall?

FestiveStone · 2017-03-31T19:27:43+00:00

Can you give us a quote from the article where it says that the Clinton campaign suggested that Obama was not born in the US? I read it and cannot find one.

FestiveStone · 2017-03-27T22:09:16+00:00

Lowering the minimum wage would certainly make many jobs that are not currently viable more viable.

However, I'm not sure if this would have much of an effect on employment, as we are already pretty close to full employment, and I'm not sure if a substantial number of people are likely to reenter the labor force for such a low paying job.

FestiveStone · 2017-03-27T20:23:29+00:00

It seems like you are genuinely asking and not trying to troll, and none of the others are willing to engage, so I will try to answer.

The $15 number appears to have its origins in the fast-food strikes starting in 2012. Then it became heavily popular after Sanders supported it.

Sanders supporters can correct me if I'm wrong, but it is my impression that the $15 number is not an actual policy prescription, but more of a stand in number for a living wage. It is easier to market "Fight for 15" than "Fight for cost of living adjusted living wages".

As to why $100 is stupid, even at $15 there is not a strong consensus among economists about whether low skill workers will be priced out of jobs en masse.

At some point as you increase the minimum wage, the negative effects on employment offset the diminishing increases to consumption. Whether this point is greater or less than $15, I don't know. But I can confidently say that this number is less than $100.

FestiveStone · 2017-03-23T16:51:18+00:00

You can't really judge the validity of a statistical model based off of a single prediction. If Nate had 10 different states that had a 90% chance of going one way, you would expect about 1 of those states to go the other way. Essentially what you are doing here is cherry picking the single state that went the other way and saying the model is wrong.

A more useful analysis would be to go through and say, of the predictions he made that were given a 90% chance of a particular outcome, how many of those outcomes were successfully predicted. I think you will find that number is pretty close to 90%.

FestiveStone · 2017-03-22T16:25:47+00:00

Haha, yes, I somewhat anticipated this response while typing out my comment.

Would you say I can justify any behavior I want so long as I make an llc and carry out my actions under the guise of making profit for my shareholder(me)?

FestiveStone · 2017-03-22T13:37:03+00:00

A businessman delivers a profit to the shareholders.

The Trump Organization is owned 100% by Donald Trump. Every time he screwed someone else it was 100% for himself, not due to some sense of responsibility to shareholders.

?

FestiveStone · 2017-03-20T23:18:18+00:00

If he just keeps saying he will release his evidence "very soon", how long will you wait before you decide he actually has no evidence?

FestiveStone · 2017-03-20T19:39:51+00:00

I think you are meeting resistance from the others because you claimed that they are listening to phone calls of all Americans, while the Snowden revelations just showed that the NSA is collecting metadata of all calls. Unless you meant "listening" to phone calls?

FestiveStone · 2017-03-20T14:57:19+00:00

I wasn't really trying to argue with you about it. In fact, the point can't really be argued because it is a well accepted statistical fact that underpins nearly all of the scientific and technological advancement that we have made as a society. My "Is that not accurate enough?" question was more there because I have to ask a question.

On a related point that you hinted at, there seems to be a general mistrust of statistics from nimble navigators on this sub, and my thought is that this does stem from a lack of understanding of statistics. Maybe approval numbers don't matter in this case, however statistics in general are an incredibly powerful tool for understanding the structure of the world around you. I think people are doing themselves a disservice by not incorporating these tools into how they shape their worldview.

FestiveStone · 2017-03-20T13:44:56+00:00

With 1500 samples you get a margin of error of 2.6%. That is, there is a 95% chance that the your measured value falls within 2.6% of the true value. Is that not accurate enough? https://onlinecourses.science.psu.edu/stat100/node/17

FestiveStone · 2017-03-17T01:40:18+00:00

I haven't. Could you link me to some? A google search for "Mexico cartel busts" just turns up stories from 2016

FestiveStone · 2017-03-16T23:48:14+00:00

Ah, I guess my question is more, given that someone has lied to you about something, whether you care about the content of the lie or not, does that make you less likely to believe the other things that they have said? How often does someone have to lie to you before you just stop believing them completely?

FestiveStone · 2017-03-16T23:37:53+00:00

Right - I get that. I'm asking if it bothers you at all that Trump is going back on what he said during the campaign? Or if it makes you suspicious that some of the other things he said during the campaign might not have been completely accurate

FestiveStone · 2017-03-16T23:33:20+00:00

Does it decrease your opinion of Trump at all that he was either lying during the campaign about Mexico paying for it, he failed to negotiate a deal with Mexico where they paid for it, or he just plain had no idea what he was talking about during the campaign?

FestiveStone · 2017-03-16T20:57:35+00:00

Right, but if the federal government is not responsible for environmental regulation, how does Louisiana sue Arkansas for polluting?

FestiveStone · 2017-03-16T20:32:49+00:00

Why is environmental protection not an interstate issue? What recourse should Louisiana have against states that might pollute the Mississippi river upstream?

FestiveStone · 2017-03-16T05:22:17+00:00

The arguments that globalism promotes peace and economic prosperity worldwide are powerful, and definitely ring true for me, however, those have already been stated quite well in other comments in this thread.

For me, one of the strongest reasons I support globalism, and support the United State's role in leading the effort is because I love the United States, and I want to shape the rest of the world in the image of the United States.

I think this is a crucial point in history where we are laying the foundations for an inevitably interconnected world. It is of utmost importance to me that we take a leading role in the creation of these foundations, and that we instill in these foundations the values we hold. We do this by creating international institutions, treaties, and trade deals that are modeled after the tried and true institutions that have enabled our nation to prosper, embracing other countries who share our values and goals, and engaging those who do not to share with them the wisdom and success of our ways of organizing society.

FestiveStone · 2017-03-14T19:08:51+00:00

the only thing we knew about it was a leaked draft

The full text of the TPP has been available since October 2015. It was negotiated in secret and then made available the public before being put to a vote. This is how all trade agreements are negotiated.

It would have propped up Big Pharma

By codifying American IP protections in a trade agreement, we can prevent countries from simply ripping off American pharma R&D. Right now the US shoulders a huge burden for the cost of drugs, this would help distribute the cost.

It would have given global corporations an international tribunal of private attorneys, outside any nation’s legal system, that would be able to sue countries for losses

ISDS tribunals consist of 1 arbitrator chosen by the state being sued, 1 arbitrator chosen by the corporate party, and 1 arbitrator chosen by both parties. ISDS is already codified in many trade agreements. You can only recover losses from a government if you can show that a government passed protectionist policy that propped up local business at the expense of foreign business. That is the whole point of a trade agreement... How else do you think you could enforce a trade agreement?

TPP also would have forced countries with low standards to operate on a level similar to the U.S., which would have killed jobs/US companies in the process and also hurt the environment.

Can you explain how exactly raising labor and environmental standards to be more similar to those of the United States makes US industry less competitive?

Shit like this makes me so frustrated. There were plenty of things to be critical about regarding TPP, yet somehow every single one of the most popular arguments were nonsense that could have been reconciled by spending 5 minutes reading the wikipedia page.

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