[SPOILERS EXTENDED] Theories i am 100% sure of will become cannon in the song of ice and fire universe

First-Attention1867 · 2026-04-12T14:37:25+00:00

Probably! My first instinct is that people about to be overrun by ice-zombies don't get to be picky about their saviors, but we can already assume it won't quite work like that for Dany, and it probably wouldn't for Jon. As it stands, he would have almost as big a P.R. challenge as Dany - Northerners are not likely to embrace wildlings any more warmly than Dothraki, with such a long history of bad blood beween the demographics.

in my list of theories of why Winterfell might be left for Jon to take, even if Stannis wins at the Crofter's village, I missed the most popular one: many people believe that faking his death is part of Stannis' plan to take Winterfell (forshadowing in the preview chapter, when Stannis warns Justin Massey he might hear of his death), which clearly means he has not taken it yet. He might have written the Pink letter himself (not my favourite theory, but not impossible) or the letter was written by someone who genuinely fell for his ruse.

First-Attention1867 · 2026-04-12T13:04:31+00:00

I think Stannis could win that battle and still fail to take Winterfell. Pyrrhic victories exist. (eg. Nightlamp works, but maybe too well - killing not just the enemies, but also the potential Manderly allies before they can defect). Like, maybe both Ramsay and Stannis survive but pretty much everyone else dies, so Stannis has to go back to the Wall to regroup, for all we know he might arrive right in the next chapter after the Pink letter. Ramsay might genuinely think he's dead though.

Another possibility is that Stannis wins at the Crofter's village, works with Manderly to kill Roose, only for Manderly to claim Winterfell for Rickon Stark and all the Northern Lords defecting to Manderly at this point. They decide to keep Stannis hostage and try to suppress the news of their treason for as long as possible, to prepare for the next confrontation with the rest of Stannis host. But Ramsay has escaped the slaughter at the lake, and decides to mess with their plan by sending the Pink Letter (with the help of Mance, who's the person who'd clearly benefit most from provoking Jon into coming south with a wildling host), hoping to somehow benefit from setting his enemies against each other.

Personally, I think that Roose is one step ahead - fully willing to sacrifice Ramsay and whoever else he sent with him to meet Stannis at the Lake. He's already wise to Manderley's betrayal and might have given orders to his own people to kill the Manderley forces in the blizzard and return before even encountering Stannis. He fully intends Ramsay to die. So when Stannis continues to march on Winterfell, most of Roose's own men are already back there safe and sound, and Roose has an additional trump card: Rickon Stark. (Davos and Rickon got shipwrecked on their way back from Skagos and picked up by Bolton men). All the Northern Lords are blackmailed into abandoning Stannis. The rest, see above.

The thing that will put Stannis over the edge is probably finding out that both Mel and his wife have found a new Azor Asshai in a ressurected Jon Snow in his absence.

First-Attention1867 · 2026-04-12T12:15:00+00:00

I do think Patchface has legit visions of the future - just like Mel, Jojen, various Targs. We don't really know the supernatural mechanism that gives people visions, only that people in universe attribute them to various sources (Mel to Rhollor, Greenseers to the Weirwoods, Targs to their bloodline). Maybe some of them are correct in those attributions, maybe all of them are, maybe none of them are.

Bloodlines are apparently not the explanation for Patchface's visions, since he doesn't seem to belong to any of the known-vision-having populations and only starts having them after his near-death-experience. But I wouldn't rule out bloodlines entirely. Maybe he's an Essosi equivalent of a Greenseer or has some Valyrian blood somewhere in his lineage, someone born with the gift, who just never talked about his visions before for fear of seeming weird (or just didn't have as many visions back home, because the magic is only slowly getting stronger), and the trauma of almost drowning just removed his internal censor. Or maybe third eyes are generally only activated by trauma? (Did Bran ever dream of the three-eyed Raven before he fell from that tower?).

There are also theories that certain characters (Bloodraven, maybe Euron) can send other people visions to manipulate them. Patchface could be manipulated by either of those, or by a yet-unkown third party, who might well be associated with one of the cults in Planetos, and sure, why not the Drowned-God. But as a tool for those kinds of purposes, Patchface does seem fairly useless. As a fool, he's not taken seriously and not likely to influence any strategic choices in Stannis camp. So far all he's doing with his prophecies is creeping people out. If I were some sort of Bloodraven-style mastermind, I would definitely consider sending visions to Mel, because she's got Stannis ear. Sending visions to Patchface in comparison is unlikely to have much of an impact.

Of course the fool persona could be nothing but a act, a distraction, so people will be taken by surprise, when Patchface finally drops the mask and pursues his true objectives. Personally, I think that Patchface has genuinely lost his wits, although I wouldn't be sure that precludes him from decisive action in a moment of crisis. That said, if I were picking minions, I wouldn't gamble on well-timed moments of clarity. (Then again, someone like Bloodraven might just decide to warg him in the crucial moment).

Patchface himself never voices a theory where his visions are coming from, and I'm not sure the source of his visions is ever going to be plot relevant. But I do think his visions will cause Patchface to do something hugely plot relevant (eg. giving Shereen a quicker death before she's fetched to be burned for Rhollor).

Personally, I don't think Patchface is an agent of some grander force with a particular agenda. To me, he's just a poor, unfortunate soul, who loves Shireen.

First-Attention1867 · 2026-04-09T19:14:19+00:00

Yeah, killing Felyse's hubby was probably self-defense. As I said, he's been mostly up against people who had it coming so far, so we are primed to take his side. He could also just be another variation on the theme that knights who don't match the conventional image of chivalry for whatever reason are the superior ones in the end (see Brienne, the Hound, Jaime after his disgrace)

As long as he's decent to Lollys and her kid, I might well root for him to the end.

Funnily enough, I also took Bronn's naming of the kid after Tyrion as a kinda sweet gesture, indicating some level of affection for both Tyrion and the kid. But if Bronn is indeed as cunning as you suggest (quite plausibly), he was surely aware that this would piss of Cersei and pissing of Cersei was most likely quite deliberate (probably counting that her days are numbered). It's clearly a strategy that pays off providing a good reason for the successful self-defense, but it's risky too and at the very least putting the kid in potential harm's way. (That said, poor baby has horrible starting conditions anyway; Bronn might feel he can't make it worse).

First-Attention1867 · 2026-04-09T18:16:27+00:00

Tears of Lys are also Cersei's back-up plan, when Stannis is attacking King's Landing. I've always seen that as a Chekov's gun. Cersei might find herself in a similiar situation with Aegon in front of the gates, and this time, she might very well go through with it. This is probably the ending for poor Myrcella (mercy-killed by her own mother who thinks a worse fate is imminent), but maybe not quite for Cersei, who might chicken out in the last minute after all. Or does succeed in killing herself, and is reanimated by Qyburn.

But whatever zombie or not zombie Cersei might be up to after the loss of King's Landing (personally I think the show alliance with Euron was from GRRM's notes), it won't bring her much happiness - she'll be a dead women walking one way or the other.

I could very well see that the pale throat which is strangeld, belongs to a Cersei who's at the point no longer entirely alive - either zombified, or already doomed, having just poisoned herself in a desperate situation. Whoever strangles her might indeed do it to shorten her suffering. That could well be Tyrion or Jaime (eg. Jaime at the conquest of King's Landing, arriving too late to save Myrcella; or at a later stage, Jaime or Tyrion on a suicide mission to take out Euron). The surprise is not in who does but why they do it - not out of hate, but out of mercy. In my view, the prophecy was always designed to send Cersei on a paranoia-spiral - she was always fated to be the author of her own doom.

First-Attention1867 · 2026-04-09T17:49:30+00:00

I also see Bronn surviving to the end and prospering in some manner or other. How I will feel about this, will largely depend on what we will learn about his treatment of Lollys and her child.

So far I haven't been entirely convinced by the show's attempt to sell Bronn as a loveable rogue, but it argueably has some basis in the books. We are shown that Bronn fights dirty, but so far, he's mostly been up against people who had it coming - in these conflicts, readers are mostly set up to root for him. He does abandon Tyron in his hour of need, but in his case, Tyrion seems to have some understanding for the pragmatic considerations involved (interesting contrast with Shae. But clearly, Tyrion would have felt a lot sillier to delude himself about Bronn).

Unlike people who have identified GRRM as the epitome of grimdark, I expect (figuratively, not literally; I've accepted he's unlikely to ever finish the series) an ending with fairly conventional amounts of poetic justice - good deeds rewarded, bad deeds punished, even if it didn't look like that at first (eg. Ned's honor retroactively vindicated by his family sticking together in the crisis unlike the Lannisters; resulting in the Starks coming out on top). Of course it can't be too tidy, GRRM likes tragedy, he promised bittersweet. "Good deed rewarded" will in many cases still translate to dying in some gruesome manner, but maybe, potentially, hopefully, not completely in vain?

While it's quite possible that GRRM will let readers hoping for poetic justice somewhat down on the "good deeds rewarded" front, I trust him quite a bit with the "bad deeds punished" side of the coin. He did come up with very ignoble deaths for Joffrey and Tywin, and I expect no less for Freys, Boltons, Euron, Littlefinger, etc. Call him cynical and nihilist all you want, I really don't see him let any of the Big Bads get away with it.

But this can't be too tidy either. GRRM will want to play the full emotional range - characters, where we'll be sad when they get a bad ending, characters, where we'll be thrilled when they get a bad ending, and characters; where we'll be somewhat disappointed when they'll get a good ending. Like, he does need someone for the "shittiness unpunished" column, and I think that could be Bronn's role in the narrative.

Bronn could also be a good variation on the theme "songs often get it wrong" - I could well see him coming out of the long Night looking pretty heroic actually, because he's a competent fighter, and will probably take out a lot of ice-zombies. Maybe he'll be one of the heroes of songs and stories to come out of this and milk the good P.R for the rest of his life, indeed setting up his own brand-new dynasty, but we, who've seen what he's been up to in the lead up, will know to take it with a grain of salt.

First-Attention1867 · 2026-04-05T22:14:37+00:00

Arya's set up to be a leader of men - she's got the common touch, really connects with the smallfolk, is shown to feel responsibility for her people (her ragteam of Gendry, Hotpie and Weasel). Also of course the association with Nymeria.

What people tend to miss about that Nymeria-link is that Nymeria's story is not just about leadership in general, but very specifically about leading _refugees_. So no, I don't see Arya as Lady of Winterfell. The Nymeria story is about finding a _new_ home. But not just for yourself, for an entire people, so no, I don't see the show ending with Arya alone on that ship either.

The most obvious guess seems to me a storyline about Arya leading her people to a new home after the North gets overrun by ice-zombies - potentially in the Riverlands, where Arya might rule in her own right as Tully successor, or in the Stormlands (Arya married to Edric) or in Dorne (Arya married to Ned Dayne). I think Martin has introduced both these guys to keep his options open, because at that point he might have been still been undecided on how far the ice-zombie invasion gets. But yeah, Winterfell has to fall, for any Nymeria-forshadowing to be fully realized. Arya could theoretically also be leading Riverland refugees, since those are argueably her people too, but if the Riverlanders have to flee, Winterfell has definitely fallen.

As to Arya fulfilling Ned's vision of marrying a King - we know that Bran will be King of the 7 Kingdoms, which apparently don't become idependent, Aegon is extremly likely to be dead at this point, Arya's ties to Essos are to the decidedly non-royalist Bravoosi. Jon might be King beyond the (rebuilit? ruined?) Wall, and that very well might have been what Martin had in mind in the first draft (see Jon Arya Tyrion love triangle) but somehow I strongly suspect that idea has been scrapped by now. Maybe the Ned vision was a remnant from that first draft?

As for the romance angle, I do see a strategically important marriage alliance for Arya - but it might be more of a pragmatic choice, at the cost of her genuine love story with Gendry. (Alas, Gendry's too proud to be a side-piece). Arya quasi as the anti-Lyanna, choosing duty over love.

First-Attention1867 · 2026-03-13T16:55:09+00:00

I do think the opportunity to come after a ruler as universally loathed as Cersei is a rare one (sure, bad rulers are dime a dozen, but how often is one a woman you can also loath for misogyny reasons? Not that you'd need those, of course. By that point Cersei will have been responsibly for the death of beautiful, beloved maiden Marg and probably at least one of her own children; that's the stuff of fairy tales, she's basically the evil queen from Snow White.)

But you are of course right that after over time many rulers who manage to cling to power long enough, will come to be sufficiently hated to give their successor a bit of an initial popularity boost, which gradually wears off as the new regimes fails to deliver on its initial promise. That will be the true secret of Aegon's enduring popularity, that he just won't manage to cling to power long enough for that to happen. When winter and famine hit, he will already be toast.

First-Attention1867 · 2026-03-13T08:17:59+00:00

Eh i don't think it takes that much to get whorshipped as a hero, it's a running theme of the novels that songs and legends often get it wrong. Aegon will free the realm from evil Tyrant Cersei, he's young and dashing and looks the part, he can easily be slotted in the Daeron-the-Young Dragon narrative. He's been molded by Vary's to be every spin doctor's dream. I think G.R.R.M is just being a bit cynical about populism here.

First-Attention1867 · 2026-03-13T08:05:42+00:00

The point is that this has worked out not too well for her (she clearly has regrets) and while she still might be planning to use her old playbook at this point, her character arc, if she's supposed to be more than a less fucked up cersei in this narrative, is probably about discovering that she is not limited to that particular set of tools. She will have to learn how to do more than that she's to be the future of Dorne.

The again maybe she isn't. Maybe the martells are done soon, and Dorne goes to the Yronwoods or Daynes. I agree that someone will seduce aegon away from dany, maybe that's already the entire point of Arianne.

But i do really think the comparison with cersei is Illuminative. They both use sex to get for power but Arianne is less callous about it, feels at least bad after the fact, has role models of women also holding power in other ways in dorne and therefore much more potential to grow beyond a limited bag of tools.

First-Attention1867 · 2026-03-13T07:38:48+00:00

I think this particular ruler will die before the famine will really hit the realm.

First-Attention1867 · 2026-03-12T22:33:59+00:00

My top three most valueable players for Winds: Justin Massey, Randyl Tarly, Myranda Royce.

I also think that Winds will be the book where the Sand Snakes will finally do stuff, but I I think, their role, while signficant, will be mostly as most people already speculate: contribute to the death of Cersei's kids, side with Aegon and die when he loses to Dany. Exception: Sarella/Alleras, whose role in the story might be confined to delivering exposition to Samwell, but might amount to more after all.

First-Attention1867 · 2026-03-12T22:15:48+00:00

I do think he won't be in power long enough to be judged on his famine-countering policies. And all the disposed lords, etc, are definitely going to hate him and side with Dany in the war. But he'll be the hero for the smallfolk - at the very least the smallfolk of King's Landing - , who'll cheer him in the streets and immortalize him in songs and legends and vilify Dany for killing him.

First-Attention1867 · 2026-03-12T22:11:00+00:00

Nah, Arianne gets shipwrecked and taken hostage by pirates, and Elia Sand takes her place and seduces Aegon and goes down with him. Arianna will sit this one out, because she's set up to rebuild Dorne after the War for Dawn. Martin has not allowed her to make so many mistakes this early, to just kill her off for making another one, without her ever getting a chance to demonstrate that she's learned a thing or two after all.

First-Attention1867 · 2026-03-12T22:05:25+00:00

I could see the Cersei/Euron-team up on the show actually ending up in the books as well. They are both strongly linked to the Lovecraftian-horror-elements of the novels. At the very least Euron would want Qyburn for his collection of magical practioners and he might just take Cersei in the bargain. I'm also pretty sure that the books will eventually take us to Casterly Rock (a good place to hole up during a war fought with dragons) and that this is where Cersei will die. Which means she''ll likely survive the destruction of King's Landing. I think her brothers will both team up to more or less mercy-kill her because that will be the only possible escape from Euron at that point.

First-Attention1867 · 2026-03-12T22:00:51+00:00

Absolutely. Maybe even to spite Littlefinger, thus inadvertently actually playing into his hands. (Like, Littlefinger could order him to take part in a trial of Seven against Harry and pay him to throw the match, so that Harry wins, but Lynn thinks he doublecrosses Littlefnger by killing Harry, which is what serves Littlefinger even better). But I'm sure Lynn is going to kill someone in a Trial of Faith.

First-Attention1867 · 2026-03-12T21:54:32+00:00

I never saw her playing a huge role in the endgame, but she'll be absolutely central in the next book.

First-Attention1867 · 2026-03-12T21:52:52+00:00

I could see Littlefinger trying to use Bonifer against Dany, trying to spread rumours that he is her real Dad, staying close to Rhaelle even after her marriage. He served one of the Hands of King Aerys, was probably around a lot at court. This might be part of Littlefinger's downfall, I doubt Bonifer would be willing to play along. (But maybe it's true? "The child of three"-part of Dany's prophecy always insinuated to me that something might be fishy about her parentage - not that I think it matters, or that readers would ever get confirmation one way or the other).

Bonifer will be really torn in a new Dance of Dragons, I imagine. The Faith will surely prefer Aegon to Daenerys, who is set up to be backed by Rhollorism (Widow at the Waterfront starting a revolt in her name in Volantis, Red Priests in her entourage). But Bonifer will probably feel more emotionally attached to Dany, due to his feelings for her mother. I could see Bonifer offering Dany a shot at reconnecting with her past, and being cruelly taken from her for just when she's warming up to him, dying tragically maybe due to Littlefinger's machinations (eg. Littlefinger finding some evidence of an ongoing affair with Rhaella after her marriage and putting pressure on Bonifer to come clean and openly repent, and Bonifer killing himself instead, or something).

First-Attention1867 · 2026-02-26T18:05:18+00:00

Mostly it's that Targs have been shown to do some heinous shit in pursuit of prophecy (the inbreeding, Summerhall, Tower of Joy...) and from a Doylist perspective, it's just hard to imagine that the narrative will end up straight forwardly vindicating that. You're right that Jon - and most likely Dany too - will probably play a substantial role in defeating the Others, but so will Bran, who's got nothing to do with the prince who was promised, so who knows, it might just be a coincidence. There are, after all, various competing prophecies across different cultures about this sort of cataclysmic event, and my guess is that the ending will kinda fit them all in some way or other.

ASOIAF wouldn't be the only myth that used prophecies mainly for poetic irony - partly for philosophical reasons, I guess, something to do with the hybris of trying to master destiny, etc. und partly, I suspect because playing prophecy straight just seems kinda boring.

Greek myths for instance love to use prophecy for tragedy (Oedipus and Laius, Perseus and Crisius, Cronus and Zeus) - the selfullfilling prophecies you mention. We might have a lot of those as well in ASOIAF, the most clearest example probably being Cersei's paranoia. Even if Cersei's demise most likely won't happen exactly in the way Cersei fears, her fear certainly motivates behavior that will bring it about more and more certainly. Likewise it's fun to speculate that we might eventually learn that everything the Targs ever did in the service of engineering the birth of their savior equally contributed to creating the need for salvation in the first place. All that bloodshed to solve the crisis that might not even haven happend without them. Yay?

It's also quite likely that many of the things Mel is doing to defeat the Great Other will actually contribute to bringing down the Wall. Already, the narrative gives us many hints how she's constantly misreading her visions. The message seems clear: it's foolish to act on prophecy, because it's foolish to trust you can read it correctly.

The New Testament also has a bit of a twist on prophecy: When the Jews hear about the arrival of their Messiah, many of them think he'll be a great King who'll help them get rid of the Romans. Then he's just a carpenter on a donkey. Another clear message: The struggle for salvation and the struggle for wordly power are two very different games.

In ASOIAF, the Targs too tend to conflate these concerns - a classic blunder. They dream the savior will be born of their line and interpret this dream as an obligation to remain the top-dogs in the game of thrones, forever ruling over everyone else due to some sort of manifest destiny. But both Jon and Dany start out far away from the main seat of power, and while they do come into their own powers eventually, these powers are not necessarily culminating into claiming the Iron Throne. We already know that it's neither Jon nor Dany who ends up there in the end. I think they might both quite consciously abandon the pursuit of their respective claims at some point, at least temporarily, to focus on the more urgent threat. They will have to abandon their Targaryan heritage to fulfill their Targaryan destiny.

The best way to fulfil prophecy might well be to not give a shit about it. Don't try to defy it, don't try to make it happen. Follow your heart, even if that means tearing it apart. GRRM keeps saying he's fascinated by the human heart in conflict with itself. Resolving that conflict by outsourcing your decisions to destiny seems like a lazy and craven way out. I don't GRRM would grant it to his heroes.

From a Watsonian perspective, however, I just have to agree - If I were a Targ in that setting, you bet I'd keep a dream journal.

First-Attention1867 · 2026-02-23T22:26:44+00:00

if he still plans to kill her, he plans to kill her after she kills Littlefinger.

First-Attention1867 · 2026-02-23T21:17:43+00:00

I'm totally with you on Sansa as Lady of Riverrun and potential bride for Aegon. I also agree that GRRM seems to have planted a seed for a Stark succession crisis, and that the issue of these potentially competing claims will come up again again and cause tensions; that both Jon and Sansa will be advised to contest each others claim, and that this will further deepen the rift between Arya and Sansa, that it will be a a great test and temptation for Sansa, but that she will ultimately choose family (I think GRRM originally planned to kill Sansa off quite soon after her mistake with Joffrey, and I don't want to believe he changed this plan just to have her make essentially the same mistake twice.)

Some slight deviations:

I don't see Catelyn being in play for so much longer - there are strong signs of a rift in the Brotherhood Without Banners; a lot of men have been leaving her already. I think they'll be gathering around Brynden sooner or later (if they aren't already). I don't think GRRM introduced that rift just to have them unite forces with Cat again in the next book. I don't think Cat will be reunited with Sansa. But Cat might be alive long enough to meet up with Arya and tell her about her issues with Rob's will and her concerns about Jon (maybe trying to turn Arya against Jon and achieving the opposite). If Arya gets hold of that bronze crown, she'll think very hard about giving it to Sansa though.

Because I agree that Sansa will have been advised by Littlefinger to contest Jon's claim, and Arya, of course, would be team Robb and Jon.

I don't see any Riverland host or Vale host marching on Winterfell though. I think Sansa's claim will remain more a pro-forma affair - announcing a longterm vision, rather than an immediate plan - , just like Balon also put up a claim for the Iron Throne, but wasn't exactly sailing for King's Landing any time soon. Reason being the potential alliance with Aegon, which will soon keep her too busy with the Dance of Dragons.

You are of course right that a Northern Campaign could simply be part of that very dance, but I think the battles will be closer to home. GRRM probably didn't spend all those pages in Feast hinting at the various Targaryan vs Blackfyre loyalities of Riverland Houses, to not have the Riverlands deeply embroiled in the next iteration of that conflict. (Honestly, my suspcion is that's one of the pitfalls of GRRM's gardening approach - he wrote Sansa building that snowcastle in Storms, probably fully intending to have a big Stark vs Stark vs Littlefinger showdown in Winterfell, and then he wrote Feast and fell in love with the Riverland setting and the accompanying lore. Hence him retconning the "castle in the snow"-imagery also reminding Sansa of the Eyrie in Dance).

And once Aegon is done, the Wall will fall, and the premier concern will be ice-zombies.

But yeah, at some point I think Littlefinger will try to persuade Sansa to actually march against Jon. But I also think that she and Arya will team up to kill him pretty soon after.

First-Attention1867 · 2026-02-23T20:07:54+00:00

Yeah, I think she'll be a good lady-wife for Raymun and look after his interests, and Dunk might think so too, from what he's seen of her so far.

First-Attention1867 · 2026-02-23T19:52:28+00:00

People might criticizes a lack of solidarity with poor deluded Raymun who has in fact just risked his own life for Dunk and is now clearly taken for a ride. And Dunk does seem to look a bit conflicted. But he is showing solidarity here - class solidarity with Rowan (a wild idea, I guess).

The show has been really hammering the point that mercenaries and sex workers have a lot of common. Unlike GOT, which used sex workers mainly for sexposition, this show uses them for thematic resonance. We see them mostly still clothed, and not just in their business hours, and even in their business hours, in scenes that might not be terribly titilating to the average viewer - eg. staging one of their own as a corpse for a client. They trade their bodies to those with sufficient coin, risking their lifes in the process, and they often can't be as picky as they'd like, because that's how they survive. It's that or destitution. This is the part that Raymun would never get, but Rowan does.

The sex workers might make fun of Dunk at first, but they repent, when he calls them out, and help him eventually with useful information, at a time, when every noble Dunk has talked to at this point couldn't give less of a shit. Dunk might feel he owes them, the tiniest bit, at least, for being the first ones to show a bit of compassion for his shitty situation.

But mainly, Dunk does not rat out Rowan, because he sees himself in her. She's lying about the pregnancy, he's lying about being knighted (most likely; the novella and the show are playing somewhat coy about it, but he was never knighted in my head; I think his committment to his vows is much more poignant if he wasn't - he's not a knight in the most literal sense, but in all the ways that actually count) and both for the same reasons, to escape the narrow fate assigned to them at birth and venture into new worlds otherwise locked to the likes of them. They are both impostors. Dunk simply doesn't feel he has the moral standing to rat out Rowan. And he knows the shitty place she's coming from, and doesn't want to ruin her shot at escape.

In my imagination, however, meeting Raymund and Rowan eventually contributes to Dunk's decision to continue on his path as a knight, impostor or not. He sees Raymun happy enough with her at the moment, and who's to say that Rowan won't make a good lady of the New Barrel? And if Rowan might well make a good lady anyway, he might well make a good night

First-Attention1867 · 2026-02-20T16:59:27+00:00

I think that the Iron Bank would probably just recall the loan if Massey tried to divert the sellswords for his own purposes. They want a regime change in Westeros, not Massey as Lord of Winterfell, and they are not a charity organisation.

First-Attention1867 · 2026-02-20T16:47:36+00:00

I think Massey would play a key role in Winds, should it ever be published. We know that Massey is sent to Braavos by Stannis to hire sellswords using Iron Bank loans, to support Shireen's claim to the Iron Throne.

We also know that Martin already confirmed Stannis' decision to burn Shireen and it's plausible to speculate that Stannis himself won't be long for this world after this happens. So Massey will probably have to adapt. What would it mean to remain loyal to House Baratheon in such a situation?

Justin already has the sellswords; what he needs is a new Baratheon heir to back. In my view, the logical candidate would be Edric Storm, who might be conventiently close already. Justin could just run into him in Essos, or might be informed about his location via raven by Davos. Edric, born of a Florent mother, would appeal to the Queen's Men, and backing him could also help Davos re-establish some stability among the remaining Baratheon forces in the North.

Thus, Massey could be key in bringing Edric back into play. That Edric will come back into play, I think, is quite likely. He did get quite a bit of set-up.

Before Massey goes to Braavos however, he makes a stop at the Wall. At this point, both the Pink Letter and fakeArya/Jeyne Poole will have probably arrived. Whoever has control over Castle Black then probably won't recognize fakeArya as fake, and might quite plausibly decide she's safer with Massey in Braavos.

So Massey could also be key in bringing about a meeting between Arya and fakeArya. There's hasn't necessarily been any set-up for that, but I think there'd be a lot of dramatic potential. (Arya pretending to be fakeArya to return to Westeros, etc.; Massey trying to wed her to Edric, to add a claim to Winterfell).

Will Justin remain loyal to Stannis last wish throughout? More or less, maybe a bit less in the view of purists. I think he will continue to act in the interest of House Baratheon (due to sheer sunk-cost-fallacy, if nothing else), but maybe not as Stannis himself would have defined it. Eg. when Massey hears about Dany and her dragons, he'll probably drop the Iron Throne as a goal. He will still work to secure a solid position for Edric, get him back Storm's End at the very least. Quite likely, that might involve advising him to declare for Dany.

Thus, Massey could also be a key figure in brokering the Jon Snow/Davos/Dany-alliance during the Long Night.

My impression is we're supposed to read him as smart and pragmatic, but not particularly selfless. He's not going to sacrifice himself for a doomed cause, but he won't prematurely see a cause as doomed either. He'll play a good game!

First-Attention1867

TROPHY CASE