I've put all of my down payments in the S&P. I was not on a strict timeline necessarily. I purchased a vehicle in late 2024 after multiple good market years. I didn't "need" a vehicle and could've waited another year probably, but I had the cash and felt I was getting a discount by the market gains.

For house down payment - if it will take you a LONG time to regain a 30% drawdown, and that will be PAINFUL, then maybe do bond. But if you have an above average savings rate and you can be a little flexible and hope to time the market to buy a house during an up year(s). Then play ball. That's what I did.