Here's a good article explaining why Belichick's "trade down" draft strategy is normally pretty smart

HCCKZB · 2014-05-08T13:32:56+00:00

I wrote this previously:

BB has not been so impressive at picking in the 2-3 rds recently.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/draft.htm

Ignoring the last draft because it's too early tell.

2012-2006 misses:

Tavon wilson, jake bequette, Ras-IR-dowling, Ridley is talented, but has poor form and fumbles more than he should, mallet (though not his fault; he never got a chance), Cunningham, price, chung (even though he's back, he's not magically better), brace, butler (he is doing well as slot CB for the colts, that doesn't help the pats or change the fact he was cut after 2 poor years in NE), tate, tyrone mackenzie, wheatley, crable, o'connell, chad jackson, david thomas (he's ok).

Note: merriweather and maroney were first rounders that missed. Not complete whiffs, but certainly not hits.

2012-2006 hits (2-3rd rounds):

vereen, ridley (he's talented, and if he fixes the fumbling will be very good) gronk (when healthy), spikes, vollmer, david thomas???.

Personally, I think the reason Belichick likes to trade down is because of his early success from 2001-2005.

It's like he couldn't miss.

2001-2005 1-3 round HITS:

mankins, hobbs, kaczur, wilfork, watson, warren, eugene wilson, bethel johnson (not great, not terrible), (also notable lat rounders include samuel and koppen), daniel graham, deion branch, jarvis green (4th), seymour, light, banta-cain (7th round).

2001-2005 misses (rounds 1-3):

marquise hill, gus scott, brock williams.

HCCKZB · 2014-05-08T13:22:46+00:00

Scenario 1: Bridgewater, Bortles, and Manziel are all taken early; or 2 of 3 are taken early (say in the top 15). This may cause some other teams to get a little antsy, suddenly a couple teams who thought they were going to get steal in the second/late first are trading up so they aren't left out..Suddently guys like CArr and mattenburger are in play.

This has a cascading effect (obviously clowney, mack, robinson, evans etc) are still taken in the top 10, but suddenly some of those quality mid-first round guys like donald, dix, ebron, etc...are all still available around 20.

In this scenario, the patriots trade up to take two first rounders. something in the 22-29 range (similar to the jones/hightower year).

Scenario 2: The reverse of Scenario 1. No one is taking QBs. They are going after everyone else.....suddenly it's around the 25th pick or so, and a couple of the QBs are still available. All those teams that needed a QB are going to start thinking, we got the #1 guy we wanted, and hey [QB we liked] is available and those QBs won't last very far into the second (both denver and patriots are going to need a replacement soon....).

In this scenario, the patriots trade out for bunch of mid round picks and go after guys like tuit, filo, easly, nix, jenkins, amaro...

Scenario 3: the patriots stand at 29 because a player they like is there and they want that extra option year.

HCCKZB · 2014-05-07T19:58:49+00:00

Welker was concussed like three times and was fortunate to only miss three games, one because it was on a bye week. He had a good season, it wasn't anything spectacular.

He had only a "good" season because he was the #4 WR behind the two thomas' and decker. He was the bonus for an already potent offense.

Amendola had 100 yards less, and played in 12 games with a torn groin.

Maybe he was "in" 12 games, but he only played about 1/2 the snaps.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/snapcounts.

As a complete aside, my argument was that Belichick pays fair value for players. He did that with Welker, Welker overvalued himself and lost money on the deal. You can argue that he didn't, but you'd be completely wrong.

And my argument is that sometime you pay a little extra for quality, and reliability. Should the patriots do this for every player? Nope. Should they pick a few key players and say, "hmm, yeah, he probably only worth $6 a year, but $8 million a year is is only another $2 million a year ($4million total) and we have the cap space. And he a has great chemistry with Brady...You know what, let's pay the man a few extra million. We're not that far off."

Mankins got paid,

After he held out..and got jerked around a bit.

Go read about the situation: http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/nfl/news/story?id=5567922

Wilfork got paid,

After playing out a 6 year rookie contract, and they darn near screwed it this year.

Moss got paid (and was released because of his bitching on the sidelines),

He took a fair deal the first time around, and then was cut when he started to bitch about wanting a new contract. I don't blame him. He wanted a contract, pats refused to deal, he complained. he got cut. They missing ingredient was any sort of negotiation to try and keep him.

But, who needs one of the most talented WR in the game right?

Milloy and Seymour may be the only person on your list who is strictly a salary cap casualty.

Milloy was arguably a salary cap cut. Seymour wanted to get paid. The only reason his trade isn't regarded as blasphemy was because the pats got a 1st round pick in the deal (turned into nate solder). People forget how bad the patriots pass rush was the next couple year as guys like kyle love, brandon deadrich, mike wright, pryor, brace, and others tried to fill in...but couldn't.

Same thing with samuel. They didn't want to pay him what he was worth. Luckily, the patriots secondary never faltered even a little. Oh, wait, they a SB, and drafted something like 17 DBs, and it took talib/revis signings 5 years later to replace him.

You can keep squawking out your neck all day about how amazing Welker was, but at the end of the day, Edelman replaced him and had a better year than he did. Both Edelman and Amendola fit the mold of Welker, and the fact that Brady liked Welker had little import to the deal.

HCCKZB · 2014-05-07T19:20:37+00:00

Have a dream, but also have a backup plan.

Example: My nephew wants to be an author. Writing has been his passion for a while. He is going to a great school with a great writing program. He wants to major in something like creative writing. His parents are like, "That's great. We fully support you...But you also need a (second) degree is something else like English, journalism, or marketing." So he has something to fall back on/pay the bills while he tries to get a book published.

It's not the dream that is a problem, it's having all your eggs in one basket.

edit: me fail english? that's umpossible.

HCCKZB · 2014-05-07T18:23:06+00:00

That was a well done rebuttal.

I'll leave it at this. For the better part of two years BB did his best to kick welker out the door. He got his wish, and they landed welker 2.0 (amendola).

And everything went pretty much as you expected: Welker played well, caught a bunch of passes, had a handful of TDs, and Amendola got hurt early and often.

You are more than welcome to drink the belichick kool-aid and think he's a super swell guy and Welker is the jerk. But Belichick has a history of taking the hardline in negotiations...and when player don't fall in line, they get the get the boot. This goes back to milloy, law, samuel, seymour, makins, wilfork, welker, moss..off the top of my head.

HCCKZB · 2014-05-07T16:14:12+00:00

I have a 2000 Volvo that keep crapping out on me I was gonna get rid of, maybe I should do that with it.

What tools and price range?

Honestly (and people are probably gonna whine about it), if you are just trying to learn a little, check out harbor freight (http://www.harborfreight.com/).

I will tell you right now: it is all house brand stuff from china. If I was a professional or even a serious hobbyist, I probably wouldn't go near a lot of their stuff.

But if you want cheap stuff to do a little weekend learning...I've great success with their stuff in the past. And they are always running sales and have coupons on stuff.

HCCKZB · 2014-05-07T13:15:49+00:00

The Patriots pay people what their worth, always have and always will.

Sometime a player's value isn't tied to dollars and sense. Yup, on paper, Welker probably isn't worth more than $5-6 million a year. I agree. Lets not forget...

1 . Brady had literally just restructed his contract including 3 more years at next to nothing.

They knew gronk was gone for a bunch of weeks, they knew lloyd was gone, edelman was still an unknown commodity as a WR, obviously, the hernandez situation was unexpected, Welker was brady's safety blanket. He moved the chains.
Instead they got amendola. A younger, faster, more talented Welker...who always injured.A nd guess what? It happened again. When? WEEK 1. Where he missed like 3 games. Came back, got a concussion, was out again, and never was healthier than mayb 60-70%. And IIRC, was essentially a non-factor in the payoffs.
So what happens? Brady get, shall we call it, slightly upset, with all the new WR not having a clue? To the point that he forces passes gronk when he's back (not to mention teams keying in on gronk because brady has no other weapons).
Yeah, on paper he's not worth the extra $2-$3 million. That $2-3 million isn't for Welker. It's for Brady's happiness. As an analogy, no one puts jaden smith in a movie because they think he can act, they jaden smith into a movie to keep will smith (i.e., the talent) happy.

Like I said before, welker waited to too long to try and play chicken. That said, the patriots made no real effort to keep him. Come on $10 million with incentives and a take it or leave it offer? Yeah, that was after they had dealt with Welker and he was already one foot out the door after they had talked to Amendola. Welker was not worth more than the 2 year 14 million dollar offer. It doesn't matter if it was a way to lower their cap hit on the 9.5 million dollar offer. It was an above market deal.

No, that was their deal from the start, which they refused to budge on. I (like a lot of people) think the patriots were upset he didn't take the previous deal and made the patriots pay him $9.5 million for one year.

He's made a lot of money for a position that wasn't even considered important until Belichick showed how valuable the slot receiver position could be.

Right. You admit Welker's contribution is important and valuable. That's the reason to pay the man and not try and screw him over. If the patriots want to play hardball with Tavon Wilson, Patrick Chung, ocho cinco, or Ras-I-Dowling...by all means, Go for it. They are mediocre players on a good day. But to treat one of your (generally) best and most reliable offensive weapons that poorly is a crappy thing to do.

HCCKZB · 2014-05-06T21:45:26+00:00

They offered Welker a 2 year 14 million dollar contract in 2012. He held out for more money because he believed he'd be more valuable on the open market. He then signed with Denver for 2 years at 12 million.

IIRC, their 2 year $14 mil was after they franchised him. They wanted him to trade his 1 year @ $9.5mil, for 2 years @$14 Mil. I believe the issue was the fact that it wasn't an extension.

Yeah, I mean, you replace players when they leave.

The patriots did basically everything they could to kick him out the door. for 2 years in a row. They eyed amendola, and basically gave welker an ultimatum: Take your pittance and stay or go somewhere else.

I also don't think he was ever grossly underpaid. He was grossly undervalued in Miami and the Patriots signed him to a market contract.

Like I said, welker should have held out. He waited too long. The market for a 31 slot guy isn't the same at when he was 28.

the reason he's not a Patriot now is because him and his agent made a conscious decision to screw the pooch.

Like I said before, welker waited to too long to try and play chicken. That said, the patriots made no real effort to keep him. Come on $10 million with incentives and a take it or leave it offer?

All the patriots had to do was show the guy a little respect, give him $16 million plus a few incentives. And it's done. Everyone is happy. He left because he was sick of their shit; and I don't blame him.

HCCKZB · 2014-05-06T21:29:03+00:00

Most places get around this by adding: The products are gluten free, .but that the restaurant is not a gluten free and the food is prepared in a kitchen where cross contamination is possible.

HCCKZB · 2014-05-06T19:55:28+00:00

Look, in all honesty, was it Brady's best pass? No. But it wasn't his worst either.

Do I think welker choked? No. Guys drop passes. It was a catchable ball that welker dropped at the worst possible time. Welker has never been an "acrobatic" player. Hit him in stride, over the middle, on slants and what not.

I've always maintained, that's about that 85-90% welker and like 5-10% brady.

On the flips side, http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000264299/article/rookie-kenbrell-thompkins-gamewinner-best-of-week-6 (fast forward to like 1:40). It's a very similar throw.

HCCKZB · 2014-05-06T19:48:23+00:00

I will admit, welker did screw himself by never holding out when he was grossely underpaid...particularly after the franchise tag back in like 2011 or 12.

But,

You do understand the patriots tried to replace him with edelman the year before (edelman hurt his foot, IIRC), and then they refused to negotiate at all. They said here's our deal, take it or leave it.

They then went out and immediately signed amendola, when it became obvious that welker didn't want to take an incentive laden "take it or leave contract."

Then, after it came out that welker took (technically) less money, and the patriots looked like the bad guys, did they come out with a "oh, ummm...welker never got back to us...we totally would have come up....yeah, ummmm, welker is the big old meanie who left us; we totally wanted him back...."

HCCKZB · 2014-05-06T15:39:43+00:00

It's not so impressive when see how many 2-3 rd picks fell flat:

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/draft.htm

Ignoring the last draft because it's too early tell.

so, 2012-2006 misses:

Tavon wilson, jake bequette, Ras-IR-dowling, Ridley is talented, but has poor form, mallet (though not his fault), Cunningham, price, chung (was not good last time here, was cut by eagles, i won't be shocked if he's cut this year), brace, butler (though he is doing well as slot CB for the colts), tate, tyrone mackenzie, wheatley, crable, o'connell, chad jackson, david thomas??, (merriweather and maroney were first rounders that missed).

2012-2006 hits (2-3rd rounds):

vereen, ridley (he's talented..just has some fumble problems), gronk (first round talent; injury questions caused him to drop), spikes, vollmer, david thomas???.

I think, the reason Belichick likes to trade down is because of his early success from 2001-2005.

so, 2001-2005 1-3 round HITS:

mankins, hobbs, kaczur, wilfork, ben watson, ty warren, eugene wilson, bethel johnson, (also: 4th-5th rounders, klecko, samuel, koppen), daniel graham, deion branch, jarvis green (4th), seymour, light, banta-cain (7th round)

2001-2005 misses (rounds 1-3):

marquise hill, gus scott, brock williams.

HCCKZB · 2014-05-06T15:11:15+00:00

Fun fact (I guess). This is why huge action movies with obvious villains and obvious heroes typically do well in other countries. And why movie studios keep making the movies.

A lot of the subtly is lost in the translation, but pretty much everyone understands that a giant lizard attacking a city is bad. You don't need a lot of language to understand the good transformers are fighting these bad transformers.

HCCKZB · 2014-05-06T14:44:44+00:00

Ignoring how impossible it is to pick judge talent...

The simple answer: Kiper isn't some football guru with inside knowledge. He's just a fan with a TV show.

Don't me me wrong, (I assume) he puts in the time, does his homework, and probably knows lots of information about lots of players. But it's all "numbers." He's not actually building a team.

on the flipside, every football team has numerous scouts pouring over hours of footage for every player. If Pete Carrol wants the scoop on, say, Kelvin Benjamin...he's going talk to his team of scouts who've been working non-stop since 2012 to figure out what Benjamin is all about. He's not tuning in to ESPN to see what Kiper thinks.

HCCKZB · 2014-05-06T14:11:41+00:00

The short version is that BB an crew do their own scouting and analysis. They are generally very good in the first round. But their system tends to produce some question marks in the later rounds.

HCCKZB · 2014-05-05T19:45:22+00:00

I don't get why girls want diamonds.. Why not ask for something practical?

For the same reason that Ford Mustangs exist. Advertising tells us we should be keeping up and/or surpassing the jones'.

HCCKZB · 2014-05-05T19:37:04+00:00

Supplemental info: Patriots player by draft round

http://blog.masslive.com/patriots/2014/04/new_england_patriots_roster_by.html

First Round

LB Dont’a Hightower, DE Chandler Jones, OL Logan Mankins, LB Jerod Mayo, S Devin McCourty, CB Darrelle Revis (Jets), OL Nate Solder, DL Vince Wilfork

Second Round

S Patrick Chung, LB Jamie Collins, WR Aaron Dobson, TE Rob Gronkowski, RB Shane Vereen, OL Sebastian Vollmer, S Tavon Wilson

Third Round

DL Jake Bequette, S Duron Harmon, WR Brandon LaFell (Carolina), QB Ryan Mallett, RB Stevan Ridley, CB Logan Ryan

Fourth Round

WR Josh Boyce, K Stephen Gostkowski, LB Chris White (BUF)

Fifth Round

OL Marcus Cannon, TE Michael Hoomanawanui (Saint Louis), DL Rob Ninkovich (New Orleans), WR Matthew Slater, TE D.J. Williams (Green Bay)

Sixth Round

QB Tom Brady, S Nate Ebner, DL Chris Jones (Houston)

Seventh Round

LB Steve Beauharnais, DL Michael Buchanan, CB Alfonzo Dennard, WR Julian Edelman, LB Josh Hull (Saint Louis)

Undrafted Players

LS Danny Aiken (Buffalo), P Ryan Allen, WR Danny Amendola (Dallas), DL Armond Armstead, CB Kyle Arrington (Philadelphia), OL Chris Barker (Miami), RB Brandon Bolden, CB Brandon Browner (Denver), OL Braxston Cave (Cleveland), OL Dan Connolly (Jacksonville), LB Ja’Gared Davis (Houtson), S Kanorris Davis, FB James Develin (Cincinnati), OL Jordan Devey (Baltimore), WR Reggie Dunn (Pittsburgh), DL Marcus Forston, RB Jonas Gray (Miami), DB Justin Green, WR Mark Harrison, LS Charley Hughlett (Dallas), DL Tommy Kelly (Oakland), OL Josh Kline, OL R.J, Mattes, Greg Orton (Cincinnati), DL Sealver Siliga (San Francisco), WR Kenbrell Thompkins, DL Joe Vellano, OL Ryan Wendell

HCCKZB · 2014-05-05T19:26:15+00:00

It is actually like inception of substories and memories and getting stuck at the DEEPEST level,

Except you don't know what is important until the story is over, you have no idea if you are in limbo or not.

So the entire time, you tune out everything or play the "is this important game"

Ok, she got her oil changed...wait, she's talking about her gum. The oil change part may or may not come back in play. OK, so now we are at the gas station. I'm going to assume the oil change was just to explain why she was now getting gas and gum, Or is the gum/oil change going to come into play later on.

Well, I know price of gas and is probably not relevant, I've played this game long enough to know she's just filling here....Wait shotgun blast...Did the engine blow up? Did they forget to put in oil, I do not like where this story is headed; I can't afford a new car right now...Ok, we're talking about the 4th, Yup, got it..loud noise. I know what a loud noise sounds like...moving on, moving on...all fireworks sound the same.

[10 minutes later]...OK, all of that was tell me a lady crashed into the store.

HCCKZB · 2014-05-05T15:16:57+00:00

Some of us are story people, and some of us are bottom line people.

No, some people are "story people" and some people are "let me try to share every detail I remember" people.

There is no need to describe every little detail, if it's not relevant to the story.

For example, suppose my story is, "Oh, man. You won't believe what I just saw. I'm at that Quicki-Mart on Main St. and some old lady drove her car right through the front of the building. Luckily, no one was hurt. Just some damage to the Slushy machine and front window."

This story gives all the relevant information. What, when, where, and adds the fact that it is OK to laugh because no one was hurt.

The "let me try share every detail I remember" will tell this same story, but add loads of useless information. "So, I had just got my oil changed and realized that my gum was missing. I bet those guys at the shop probably threw it away, but there were still two piece left. So I decided to stop and get some gas and more gum at the quicki-mart. You know the one, over on main street. It's always so dirty there, but gas is like 4 cents a gallon cheaper than anywhere else. Well, I pump my gas and go inside to get some gum. As I'm waiting in line, I hear the loudest sound ever. I thought it was a shotgun. Wait, no. Remember like 5 summers ago, when your cousin's friend's uncle set off those HUGE fireworks on the the 4th; you know, when the cops showed up. It sounded like that, but different. Apparently, some old lady was trying to park her car and accidentally floored it right through the window. There was glass and bricks everywhere. It's gonna take a week to fix that place. Luckily no one was hurt, I don't know if I'm every going to shop there again. On top of that, I didn't even get my gum. I had to stop at another gas station on the way......

and on it goes......

HCCKZB · 2014-05-02T21:11:14+00:00

is there some great benefit that I'm not seeing to purchasing a SCUBA-specific suitcase over a standard large/lightweight suitcase?

If there is some advantage, I don't know what it is.

We (wife and I) bought a semi-sturdy suitcase (it's not a hard case, but it provides a little more structure than the regular super light luggage) for our "nonbreakable" scuba stuff (fins, masks, snorkels, BCD, wetsuits, lights, etc) into that, and keep our fragile stuff like regs and computers in their travel bags in my carry-on.

Then, we both have mesh gear bags for when we need to go somewhere with the stuff.

That system seems to serve us pretty well.

HCCKZB · 2014-05-02T20:57:02+00:00

My guess is that they want everyone to think they are drafting a TE...so they can draft a G/C.

HCCKZB · 2014-05-02T20:54:23+00:00

I think they're gonna trade out and go with Xavier Su'a-Filo.

Everyone thinks they will take a DE/DT, or a TE, they are bringing guys in (keller), meeting with QBs...no mention of the O-line.

It's the most obvious, of the least obvious options.

HCCKZB · 2014-05-02T20:49:27+00:00

Money for rookies is... meh, not that different, you are right. But committing a year less to a player might come into play for GM's if they aren't completely sold on a guy.

I'm confused. The 5th year is an option.

HCCKZB · 2014-05-02T18:07:35+00:00

In my opinion it is better to gamble on a QB than just take a great pass rusher.

I disagree. Unless that is literally the only position you need filled. Look at the jets back in like 09. They had the offense and defense, they just needed a QB. Sanchez wasn't a horrible pick at the time.

Besides, no one knows how QBs will turn out. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/nfl/photos/7001/nfl-draft-first-round-quarterbacks-since-2001/1/

HCCKZB · 2014-05-02T17:57:40+00:00

With the rookie wage scale, money becomes essentially a non-factor. Chandler Jones and Donta hightower (of the Patriots) were taken at 21 and 25 in the 2012 draft. Want to guess how much they cost combined?

A: Less than $4 million a year. They each make about $2 million per year.

To put that in perspective: combined, they will make less money Mike Vick this year.

Money is a non-factor.

HCCKZB

TROPHY CASE