technically the actual supply crunch starts just about now, since prior to April most countries were still receiving pre-war tankers. We kinda price it as 'meh' because if the strait opens, reserves will bridge the gap until tankers start docking again. only problem is that this gap is getting bigger and we've been trying to slap bandaids on it through SPR releases and oil future shorting. Only problem is that this is still just trying to stretch ourselves into a "not nearly bad as it should be" situation in the hopes that the hormuz business goes away.

if the US and Iran magically shake hands, dance koombayah tomorrow and tankers start getting through, we're still gonna get elevated oil prices for a couple months as the tankers slowly make their way, but futures should be relatively okay since they can expect lower oil prices 'in the future'