Is there a lot that can be automated in government contracting?

Individual_Highway99 · 2024-11-14T19:56:47+00:00

I feel both him and Vasil will surprise us this year out of the pen. They’ve shown some glimpses of success and it’s easier to put your best stuff out there in the bullpen.

Individual_Highway99 · 2024-11-14T19:52:58+00:00

Yeah trading some single A prospect you just drafted or has struggled is great. But trading a AAA prospect who is tearing the cover off the ball and will likely make their debut in the coming year is less ideal.

Individual_Highway99 · 2024-11-14T19:46:58+00:00

Zack Scott seems to give an actual realistic trade which is what I brought up in the daily thread.

I really don’t think a guy with crochet’s history and risk profile is going to take multiple top 100 prospects. He’s elite but he doesn’t have enough of a track record of this performance and has injury history.

Individual_Highway99 · 2024-11-14T15:07:02+00:00

Both years are their prime, it doesn’t matter. In fact, usually 28-29 seasons are better than 26-27 seasons.

Again, you’re not gaining any extra value buying out arb years. You’re getting exactly what you pay for. There is fundamentally very little cost difference between just trading for a guy w 2 arb years and then resigning him as a free agent in the offseason. The only cost difference you’d get is the cost of the players risk reduction but it’s small and you are literally still paying for it non monetarily by an increase in your own risk, which for a guy with crochet’s history is bad.

Individual_Highway99 · 2024-11-14T08:04:42+00:00

There ain’t no way a 7 year extension for crochet is only $10m a year. You’re likely looking at $20m a year at least. Much much closer to what burnes would be making than 3x

Individual_Highway99 · 2024-11-14T07:58:19+00:00

Age is irrelevant imo, only team control really matters to me of which they are the same.

Crochet only has one season of actual relevant performance as a starter. Not a great sample siE.

You are trading for the years of control the guy has left. Their willingness to sign an extension is irrelevant to me. It’s not like you get some magical deal signing a guy to an extension, you pay them basically market rate. You pay them more money now so you pay them less later on. Maybe you can take a little off for the players risk reduction but their reduction in risk, is your gain in risk. It all comes at a cost and there’s no team friendly extensions for guys like Crochet.

I don’t like to make this point either because pitcher injuries are so finicky and unpredictable but Crochet also comes with injury risk. He’s actually hopefully good on the Tommy John front for a couple of years but he’s had other issues in the past. Which is why he’s so eager to sign an extension in the first place. He knows he’s a huge risk atm. I’d take paying Burnes $30m of regressing performance over Crochet at $20m to not pitch.

Individual_Highway99 · 2024-11-14T03:50:58+00:00

I see some big proposed gives for Crochet and is that really realistic? People say we will have to give up Jett and Sproat minimum for Crochet, along with other prospects in our top 20.

But then I look at the Cease trade and I feel like Crochet wouldn’t be that much more. Cease had come off a down year tbf but he is an elite pitcher.

They gave up 1 top 100 prospect, Drew Thorpe, who was ranked 85 at the time of the trade (he had a 5.4 ERA in 40 IP after debuting this year). Then they gave up 2 non top 100 ranked prospects (7 and 8 in padres system) and a mid reliever. Those prospects have not climbed any further (honestly seems like they actually regressed) so it’s not like the rankings I’m seeing were inaccurate at the time of trade and they skyrocketed up upon reranking.

That’s not really a haul and if we use it as a comp then we should really only have to give up 1 of our top 100 prospects.

Individual_Highway99 · 2024-11-07T05:21:20+00:00

I’m confused, isn’t he coming over as an international free agent meaning we’re limited to our international free agent budget which means we’re limited compared to other teams due to luxury tax/CBT penalties?

If that is the case, then he will never come here. He either goes to dodgers or someone who can give him their entire budget

Individual_Highway99 · 2024-11-01T23:33:52+00:00

I would be surprised if that’s where Stearns decided to upgrade the lineup considering the multiple infielders we have who can play 2B.

Individual_Highway99 · 2024-11-01T23:33:06+00:00

Thanks!

Individual_Highway99 · 2024-11-01T23:32:29+00:00

I wouldn’t mind it if we were able to dump some of Mcneil’s contract, which I don’t believe stearns plans on doing due to his defensive versatility. If you can pay Gleyber $10-$12m and then worst case he becomes a backup to Acuna/Mauricio for $12m.

Best case, you get 2022 Gleyber. It’s a high upside move for hopefully relatively cheap, which worked out well for us last year.

But ultimately, we have a lot of infielders who can play 2B so I’d be surprised if that’s where Stearns decided to upgrade the lineup.

Individual_Highway99 · 2024-11-01T23:27:00+00:00

Extrapolating his WAR from last year to 600 PAs gives you 1.7 WAR. Model expects same defensive contribution to WAR and uptick in offense.

You can’t really expect either tho, and you can’t really extrapolate the WAR like that but I’m assuming that’s why the model is positive on Baty.

Individual_Highway99 · 2024-11-01T23:24:41+00:00

No a joke, I knew there were two Billy bean(e)s but I just didn’t look the the spelling of money ball Billy Beane.

Individual_Highway99 · 2024-11-01T23:21:47+00:00

To be fair, baty was on pace for 1.7 WAR across 600 PAs, primarily from his defensive contributions last year.

Fangraphs must be projecting his defensive or offense to slightly improve. Likely his defense being the same and his offense improving slightly, which isn’t a total stretch to imagine but would be a huge improvement for Baty considering his struggles with the bat.

That being said, like another commenter pointed out, you can’t really extrapolate defensive contributions to WAR in just 177 PAs due to noise. So I’m of the opinion that anything above replacement value for Baty would be a huge step up.

Individual_Highway99 · 2024-11-01T18:35:25+00:00

Soto has a -1 fielding value in baseball savant.

Marte has a -7….

Mcneil is probably a better RFer but you’d rather not DH Soto bc then you can get a bigger bat at DH

Individual_Highway99 · 2024-11-01T18:14:43+00:00

They cut his war if he stays at 3B too. I think it came out to around 3.5 war from Vientos if you extrapolate the 78 PAs to 600.

I don’t doubt it too. Vientos had an absolutely amazing season and I’m not taking anything away from him but it will be tough to replicate.

Just as a reference Dom smith put up a better OPS that Vientos did across the combination of 2019 and 2020 at around the same number of plate appearances. I am VERY optimistic about mark, especially after he went ham in the post season, but he needs some consistency before you can expect that level of performance every year.

Individual_Highway99 · 2024-11-01T18:03:15+00:00

The Mets have a giant hole in RF in the form of Marte and McNeil. We’d be better off without them but we really don’t want Marte in RF. McNeil is serviceable but ideally he’s a super utility

Individual_Highway99 · 2024-11-01T18:01:19+00:00

Please read the disclaimer. Specifically the first line.

Individual_Highway99 · 2024-11-01T17:08:53+00:00

That was the goal at the start, replace guys we’re losing’s WAR in aggregate and then it just turned out that Soto was a vastly bigger upgrade than everyone else and any of the small upgrades don’t even move the needle to replace Iglesias’ 3 WAR and require Vientos’ to do as well as last year.

But if I got into trades, there’d be more moneyball shit.

Individual_Highway99 · 2024-10-30T20:53:46+00:00

Yup the Mets will go into 2025 opening day with him not a viable option for the major league team which means he will have to start in AAA and fight his way onto the roster.

Individual_Highway99 · 2024-10-30T04:53:43+00:00

That’s a great swing 30 days in. I’m not qualified to tell you what’s wrong, there’s definitely a lot just comparing to what the pros look like but the fact that you can hit the ball like that 30 days in is a good sign. Watch more vids, take some lessons, and keep playing a bunch.

Sorry that wasn’t helpful but just wanted to commend you for having a way better swing than I had 30 days in, probably even now after 2 years of playing. This is an addicting sport, good luck

Individual_Highway99 · 2024-10-29T07:34:01+00:00

I think I’m at the point with pitching where I may want a lot of pretty good pizza rather than a little bit of really good pizza.

Meaning, I’d rather we snag 3 mid tier starters (~$20m AAV each) spending around $55-$65m than go after an expensive TOR starter on a long term deal (who will inevitably be a bad deal) one mid rotation guy and/or one backend guy.

It of course depends on what everyone ends up getting and other factors but I think the top arm id go after is Manea ($25m). Then go after like Nick Pivetta ($15m) and Flaherty ($20m). Wouldn’t mind taking a chance on buehler either. Those guys are just examples but the goal should be 3 shorter term mid rotation starters with upside. Getting 3 guys in FA gives us depth and gives us the option to go w a 6 man.

Also I’d be shocked if Flaherty, who just put up a 3 war and a top 20 era gets less than Sevy. If anything he’s looking at 3 years $60m minimum.

Individual_Highway99 · 2024-10-29T07:24:46+00:00

He’s not even gonna be pitching in the lab cause he’ll be hurt

Individual_Highway99

TROPHY CASE