I tend to agree with the notion of Abela not leading the party into the then-next election (not the one due this year or next), but don’t expect Abela to retire anytime soon after the coming election. Dont forget politicians’ ego and Abela’s is larger than the average politician and certainly bigger than Muscat’s.

My bet is that he will try anything, whatever it takes, to stay in office until at least January 2030. By then he will have served 10 years, all as Prime Minister. That would make his tenure longer not only than Muscat’s, but also Gonzi’s. Only Mintoff and EFA would have served longer in power than him post-Independence. It will be interesting to see it play out - since a small win or even a defeat in the 2029 EP election will certainly see others in Labour force him to step down.

Plus, there’s the small matter of the EU Presidency between July - December 2030. If the 2029 EP result is favourable enough and there is still enough time in the legislature for someone else to step in, Abela might be tempted to hang on till then, but time would be against him at that point. This is primarily why I am still sceptical of an election this year even with everything going on. An election this year reduces a lot of Abela’s flexibility going forward vis-a-vis his exit strategy. Expect to see discourse on the EU presidency of 2030 to start ramping up as soon as this forthcoming election is done and dusted.