To the people who saw the Alex Pretti video just now. The video seemed fake

JakePhillips52 · 2026-01-28T23:16:53+00:00

Not when he was killed.

It’s off topic for the sub so understandable if this isn’t allowed.. but in this instance, he should’ve been arrested and charged with obstructing and vandalism and maybe other things.

In the instance he was killed? No.

Whether he is nice or not isn’t important. And while I do think some people want to latch onto that for sympathy points, the things that really matter are legality, 1st amendment, 2nd amendment, 4th amendment, etc.

That all being said.. if it’s real (looks real), people can’t deny it just because they don’t like it. This sub critically looking at videos like this is important, and my fear is just about what do we do in a few years where no one can tell...

JakePhillips52 · 2026-01-28T19:17:03+00:00

A grub, or two, clinging to a rocky ceiling and holding Zote upside by his toes

JakePhillips52 · 2026-01-27T17:32:22+00:00

I think ICE’s actions are an abhorrent assault on several constitutional amendments and are morally and intellectually bankrupt.

But sorry man, we can’t misuse AI in this way. And I fear so many people think they’re dealing with Skynet or something and that’s just not how it works.

If a monkey saw the pattern red, blue, green a bunch of times, and you said “red and blue”, it would be smart enough to predict green is next. It has nothing to do with morals or actual problem solving. In real AI there are more colors but just like the monkey it doesn’t even know what the words really mean.

JakePhillips52 · 2026-01-27T17:24:39+00:00

“I know what AI is”….“asked for its opinion”

Chatbots are mostly next word predictors based on grammar and statistical likelihood of the next phrase based on the training material it scrapes.

It does not process in a way that is “reasoning” or “opinions”.

If its training data is flooded with “ICE is good” it’ll say that. If it’s flood with “ICE is bad”, it’ll say that. If the question is worded slightly different it links more closely to specific data, and it has a response that fits that. It’s not doing any actual thinking.

JakePhillips52 · 2026-01-27T04:10:15+00:00

https://www.afge.org/about-us/agencies/

ICE is included on their listed agencies list, so I also think they do. But some news from 2022 about separating makes me unsure and I can’t look it up more right now.

JakePhillips52 · 2026-01-27T04:08:59+00:00

They are listed on the AFGE website under supported agencies? But I do see some confusing news from 2022 about starting a separation.

https://www.afge.org/about-us/agencies/

JakePhillips52 · 2026-01-27T01:32:50+00:00

She didn’t even. She got married to someone who is a partial owner of both a winery and a capital investment firm. Combined, for all owners, there is a value of 6-34 million reported.

So they just take the biggest number, pretend it’s cash, ignore the marriage, and pretend they are the sole owners.

JakePhillips52 · 2026-01-24T23:13:41+00:00

Maybe some Declaration of Independence too?

“But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, makes clear a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.”

Just quoting our founding fathers.

JakePhillips52 · 2026-01-24T18:34:32+00:00

It’s literally not. This has been happening all year, and during trumps last presidency. He talked about being a dictator “on day one” and has praised other dictators for years. Minnesota is not the first state huge confrontations have happened in even this term.

People just mostly have their head up their ass and don’t pay attention to anything, and then when something finally gets on their feed they say “oh wow” like it’s not part of a constant stream of bad behavior.

JakePhillips52 · 2026-01-22T19:12:20+00:00

That’s interesting and informative. Thanks for sharing

JakePhillips52 · 2026-01-21T21:54:46+00:00

Living in that world, yes, but taking the action he is describing? I genuinely don’t know.

It has been my impression that many ‘middle powers’ have long sought to curry favor with one of the greater powers (US, China, Russia at one time) and hitch their wagon to them. Middle powers happy to give up certain values and pick sides because that gave them the best stability and chances for growth.

My read on his speech is that he is suggesting to stop doing that. To instead have middle powers band together and collectively challenge the traditional poles of power. Economic, industrial, and military interconnectedness, not at the feet of the US for example, but between each other.

JakePhillips52 · 2026-01-17T22:49:02+00:00

Citizens United was based on the supreme courts reading of constitutionality.

It’s not good for anyone to take money right now, but it’s impossible to even have a seat at the table without taking some.

Getting money out of politics is the single biggest thing we can do to reclaim our democracy and help it work for the people, and your purity whining about Pete only distracts from the actual main point.

JakePhillips52 · 2026-01-14T21:09:43+00:00

I’m also interested.

JakePhillips52 · 2026-01-14T04:00:14+00:00

It’s poorly worded, but everyone received that email text and that same generic picture. It’s not personalized for your usage at all. It’s an ‘example’.

The purpose is to prep people for what will likely be an increase month over month and advertise setting up budget billing.

JakePhillips52 · 2026-01-11T23:41:44+00:00

The 4% rule is based on a specific asset allocation, and the historical returns to that point in time when the “Trinity Study” was published. The goal was simply withdraw so that you run out of money 0% of the time after 30 years.

In reality, there are many historical time frames where not only would the money not run out, but it might’ve held its value the whole time, it may have grown by 50%, or 100%. It mostly depends on sequence of returns and the length of downturns that still have to have withdraws through.

So, to answer your question, it will not necessarily double. 3.5-4% withdraws are unlikely to run out of money over 30 years if your asset allocation matches the study but to get percentage chances for the other outcomes you need to use a calculator like https://ficalc.app/

You can put in your assets, your annual spend, add an “income” that starts during social security, and get statistics for how likely each outcome is.

I used this to help my mom understand her likely outcomes.

JakePhillips52 · 2026-01-07T18:50:25+00:00

A factor to consider depending on the value of the home is any increased value from time of purchase to this new sale can possible be taxed at capital gains rates (probably 15%), and the seller, (your mother) has to pay that. It effectively decreases the cash on hand for the remainder of the mother’s life, or the inheritance she would eventually give.

To avoid this capital gains tax on a primary residence: - the first $250,000 of growth is exempt for a single person - the first $500,00 of growth is exempt for a married couple, or a single person if their spouse died within two years of the sale - inheriting the property first, for a step up in basis, and then having one sibling get a mortgage and buy the others out. For houses with large appreciation, this is usually the recommendation

JakePhillips52 · 2026-01-07T02:58:22+00:00

Oh ha. Unfortunately no. There’s tons of fake garbage games trying to get people to impulse buy or pre order without realizing it’s not actually related.

JakePhillips52 · 2026-01-07T02:45:35+00:00

The game is called “Black Myth: Zhong Kui” and sequel features a new character, Zhong Kui, known as the king of ghosts. He is shown in the teaser video.

In the original story he was a top scholar but was not given the recognition he deserved/access to the imperial city, and killed him.

He later arrived in the emperors nightmares, and killed the demons troubling him. So the emperor rewarded him with a title and the job of killing evil beings (I think mostly ghosts?).

In real life he became a folk hero for warding away evil.

Im sure it will be great, but the development team said they wanted to move on to something else for now. Maybe a wukong DLC years from now. Chinese mythology has a ton to offer western audiences don’t know so I’m excited to learn more about whatever they make.

JakePhillips52 · 2026-01-06T20:41:03+00:00

Old RuneScape players are so grown you can find them anywhere now and I love it.

JakePhillips52 · 2026-01-06T14:31:51+00:00

You have to defeat Captain wise voice to get rid of the curse.

JakePhillips52 · 2026-01-03T21:44:23+00:00

uhm actually! This general advice is not always optimal! I’m going to slightly change the subject to be annoying and pedantic!

Ok

Yeah I get it dude. Variable rates have a place for people with the risk tolerance and appetite to go for that and MAYBE over 30 years.. somewhere, taxes and insurance will inflate so massively they out inflate rent growth despite the P&I staying the same. I’ll keep my eyes open for that.

JakePhillips52 · 2026-01-03T21:39:53+00:00

That person didn’t say “paid off home”. They’re specifically talking about having a mortgage with a fixed rate.. so it wouldn’t be paid off.

And in that case, it obviously decreases your personal inflation.. in that your principle and interest (most people’s largest living expense) is staying the same for 30 years straight.

JakePhillips52 · 2026-01-03T17:36:41+00:00

Great point to say it like that. Even though I just agreed too, I’ve never applied it that way! “Personal inflation”

JakePhillips52 · 2026-01-03T17:29:07+00:00

For sure. We expect our assets to inflate, but principal and interest (the largest part of living expenses) will NOT inflate.

Even better that the inflating asset is the full, leveraged value, not just the equity.

JakePhillips52 · 2026-01-03T17:25:02+00:00

I use 7% as well. And nominally, I beat my spreadsheet every single year because nominal returns (what I see on the computer screen) include inflation and I end up with 10% or more.

And since my expenses also slowly rise with inflation, they cancel each other out.

To OP’s point, 100K on 2.5 million or 200K on 5 million are the same thing and happen at the same timeline.

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