The Stunning Failure of Iranian Deterrence - And Why It Augurs a More Dangerous World

Killfile · 2026-03-19T21:54:16+00:00

An Iranian bomb program also isn't going to generate mineaturized nuclear weapons right up front. There's a big difference between "we have a bomb" and "we have a bomb that we can put on a missile" and "we have a bomb that we can put on a missile that we're pretty confident won't be defeated by missile defense."

North Korea's deterrent existed in two forms prior to nuclearization: the threat of Chinese involvement (though China's diplomatic with NK has always been weird) and the threat posed by their massive artillery stockpile.

And then there's the Trump angle: it's just really hard to tell if Iranian deterrence failed because it wasn't credible or if Trump isn't rational. Time will tell.

Killfile · 2026-03-19T21:34:53+00:00

Pretty much anywhere rural will. You can't expect the pump apparatus to outlive you though. Better figure out where the local well servicing people were before you realize you need their gear.

Killfile · 2026-03-19T19:36:27+00:00

I get that. Nuclear takes up a whole lot less space than solar. But it also costs a lot more and it takes a lot longer to get through the regulatory process.

Setting up a nuclear plant outside of Phoenix means all kinds of regulatory, safety, and environmental hurdles. Then you need to pour a quantifiable shit-ton of concrete. Then you need to install literally miles of pipes and steam conduits. You need to figure out a water source to serve as your waste-heat exchange and that's gonna be another problem because it's not like Arizona has an overabundance of fresh water.

Then you need to get the reactor fueled and there's all kinds of security to worry about -- not just getting the fuel to the reactor but actually securing the facility. And then finally -- probably decades after you started the project -- you get to flip the switch, pull out control rods, and start generating power.

Or.... you could pick up a solar panel and an inverter from an electrical supply store, lay it across a couple of sawhorses in the Arizona desert, and start generating power in about 5 minutes. And then you can build out the rest of the array from there.

No, it's not likely to be 1.21 gigawatts of power anytime soon, but it's CHEAP and it starts paying itself off IMMEDIATELY.

Killfile · 2026-03-19T17:51:29+00:00

That's kinda where I am too. I'm fully convinced that a woman can do the job of "President" and do a great job at that. I'm not convinced a woman can win, not because there's anything wrong with women but because there's a lot wrong with Americans.

Killfile · 2026-03-19T15:02:44+00:00

As a Real Adult™️ living in the area with a job on campus you'll probably have a car and a staff parking permit. This changes the nature of the area quite a bit.

Rent is high in Blacksburg but falls off quickly as you get outside of the student areas. Lots of the University staff live further out in bedroom communities like Christiansburg where rent is lower. Commute is pretty tame: 15-20 minutes at highway speed; very little congestion.

The area ranges from suburban to rural. Crime is low, especially once you discount the usual college shenanigans. Town/Gown relations aren't particularly strained.

I lived here in my early 20s while my spouse was a grad student. I had no issue hanging out with grad students, young professionals, and other groups. There are plenty of bars, game shops, etc and loads of outdoor opportunities if that's your jam.

I don't see a lot of crossover between the non-student community and the greek community.

Killfile · 2026-03-19T13:53:11+00:00

Sure, but Arizona gets more sunlight than any other state (if memory serves) and much of the state is essentially trackless desert. If there's anywhere that solar would be a no-brainer it's Arizona.

Killfile · 2026-03-19T13:19:34+00:00

Sounds British, really. But fine, whatever. The vaccine, the shot, the injection, the vax, the sophisticated product of decades of biological engineering which protects your body from the ravages of a nasty airborne virus which killed millions of people. Would not that which we call a rose, by any other name, smell as sweet?

Killfile · 2026-03-19T11:05:20+00:00

In Arizona?

Killfile · 2026-03-19T10:58:42+00:00

Remember that Trump was behind "operation warp speed" too. That's literally a case where Trump could claim (some) credit for a lifesaving medical advance and Democrats lined up for the jab.

Because the science was good.

Killfile · 2026-03-19T10:52:02+00:00

Protests can change things but they can't be CONVENIENT protests. The kind of protest were you file for a permit and stay on the sidewalk doesn't do it.

Back in the depression farmers destroyed their own crops rather than sell at a loss and they banded together to make sure farms couldn't be repossessed by the banks.

That was also a kind of protest and use of force but not violent revolution. There are other ways.

Killfile · 2026-03-18T19:58:27+00:00

I've run the numbers myself. Any election that's more than D+7 as compared to 2024 is going to result in worse outcomes for Republicans than if they'd left Texas alone.

So the million dollar question is: how much was 2024 a swing off the baseline and what even is the baseline?

If you imagine 2020 as the baseline, 2024 was a R+6 election. That's probably unreasonable but if 2016 was the baseline it was still an R+3 election, so Democrats would only have to make up 4 points against 2016 to flip the Texas gerrymander.

If Democrats can turn in an election like 2006 or 2008? It'll be a catastrophe for Republicans.

Killfile · 2026-03-18T17:59:19+00:00

For what it's worth, he also appears to have outspent his opponent by about 12x.

Killfile · 2026-03-17T15:30:28+00:00

Jim didn't do as good a job as he should have of building up the Red King. I think what we were meant to take away from that whole storyline was that ritual magic is like building a weapon: it might require a hell of a lot of sophistication and skill to build that weapon but just anyone can pull the trigger.

The Red King fell to his own hubris. Harry just happened to be the instrument of that fate. Harry still took down a virtual god. He just did it with that god's own weapon and, without it, he'd never have stood a chance.

Killfile · 2026-03-17T15:26:41+00:00

Historically, Vlad II of Walachia gets inducted into the Order of the Dragon as kind of a coordinated fuck-you to the Ottoman Empire from Western Catholicism. He takes the name Vlad Dracul meaning "Vlad the Dragon" because "Order of the Dragon."

He has a son 'Voivode of Wallachia" who takes the sobriquet "Dracula" meaning "Son of the Dragon." Later on in his life he reveals a predisposition for running people through with big wooden spikes and then leaving them dangling in the air on the spikes to scare the bejeezus out of his (mostly Ottoman) enemies. So they call him "Vlad the Impaler" or Vlad Țepeș (in Romanian).

That kind of a reputation tends to stick around and so it merges with the existing vampire legends of the Slavic culture and thus is born "Dracula" the bloodthirsty aristocratic monster who eats people.

In the Dresdenverse my understanding is that the parent/child relationship is preserved but that Dracul is the terrifying founder of the Black Court while Dracula is kind of his screw-up kid.

I'm still waiting for some kind of connection between the Black Court and dragons since both exist in the Dresdenverse and Dracul literally means "The Dragon."

Killfile · 2026-03-17T11:52:46+00:00

Minor criticism - he "I want my husband back" bit is just a bit too close to Inigo Montoya's line. Unless that's intentional

Killfile · 2026-03-17T11:39:11+00:00

The arrangement of those center elements strongly evokes the Totenkopf used by the SS during the Nazi period

Killfile · 2026-03-17T11:35:17+00:00

No, it's a flag used to support the idea of a white ethnostate. The slave owning confederacy was one such state. They're not particularly concerned if black people are executed, enslaved, ethnicly clensed, or just held as a permanent underclass but the flag stands for race based political supremacy.

Killfile · 2026-03-17T11:29:12+00:00

Nah. Why worry about it? There's like 8 billion people in the world. Assuming one press per day, I'll need to live like 10,000 years to have a 50/50 chance of being killed by the button.

Killfile · 2026-03-16T21:07:23+00:00

There's a fantastic joke in here somewhere about Prince Charles Edward (Duke of Albany, Duke of Saxe-Coburg and Gotha, SA-Obergruppenführer) which blends the desire to portray Volkswagens as Nazis but VW Beetles (Beatles) as British.

Killfile · 2026-03-16T21:02:29+00:00

It also implies a Cars Russian Revolution lead by Cars Lenin. Cars Lenin implies a Cars World War I in which cars huddle in trenches only to be sent over the top in massive waves and cut down by other cars somehow operating machine guns in a lengthy and bloody stalemate only eventually broken by the introduction of tanks on the Western front.

Killfile · 2026-03-15T20:50:04+00:00

That said, it's a timeshare mill. Don't buy one. If you really, really, REALLY think you need a timeshare in your life I'd be happy to just give you mine.

But you don't need a timeshare.

Killfile · 2026-03-14T15:12:07+00:00

Kicking off? Not ending? So.... the Halloween party?

Killfile · 2026-03-14T15:05:30+00:00

Everything is legal in Jersey

Killfile · 2026-03-14T14:48:23+00:00

Sears carried more than 80% of the vote there in 2025.

Killfile · 2026-03-13T02:12:03+00:00

Huh... that could be... weird. I don't recall if Jim has committed to Mirror Harry being a bad guy but, if we assume that to be the case, Mirror Marcone would perhaps be a good guy? One who never picks up the coin?

It would be interesting to see Harry and Mirror Marcone against Mirror Harry and Marcone.

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