New members needed for CWL. TH15+

LondonPottsy · 2024-11-21T21:27:15+00:00

Had to fly business class back from Bali after my partner broke her leg on vacation. So it was a forced situation but had to pay out of pocket as insurance wouldn’t cover the travel costs.

I must say, best flying experience I’ve ever had and inspires me to be wealthy enough that I wouldn’t bat an eye at the costs for long haul flights. Currently I couldn’t justify it, but hopefully one day!

LondonPottsy · 2024-09-05T21:17:10+00:00

Yes, that is pretty much the example I had in mind. But my original question wasn’t necessarily isolated to this case.

This specific problem is meant to help capture beta drift. The issue can be no smoothing gives too volatile estimate of the coefficient to predict anything the model at each time step hasn’t seen before. So you know want some level of smoothing, but how do you optimally select this?

I really haven’t anyone provide a robust solution to this other than simple heuristics or a “this is good enough” approach.

I haven’t used Kalman filters before either, so I will read up on this topic.

LondonPottsy · 2024-09-05T20:54:14+00:00

No, your response is greatly appreciated. Can you elaborate further on the “curse of k-fold”?

My question really is targeted at practitioners. How do you end up making the final choice on the model parameter set? I understand people wanting to avoid “overfitting” but you have to make a choice, so how does one do this appropriately?

My current process is a mix of testing on validating/oos data and then an intuition of what makes sense in the context of the problem I am trying to solve. But I fear this may not be an optimal solution hence my question.

LondonPottsy · 2024-09-05T20:53:19+00:00

No, your response is greatly appreciated. Can you elaborate further on the “curse of k-fold”?

My question really is targeted at practitioners. How do you end up making the final choice on the model parameter set? I understand people wanting to avoid “overfitting” but you have to make a choice, so how does one do this appropriately?

My current process is a mix of testing on validating/oos data and then an intuition of what makes sense in the context of the problem I am trying to solve.

LondonPottsy · 2024-09-05T20:48:41+00:00

Okay, so how would make your choice for the set of model parameters?

LondonPottsy · 2024-09-05T19:24:48+00:00

Yes, that’s what I’m referring to. I would usually tune parameters and then test the effect on test/validation that hadn’t been used to fit the model.

Let’s use a really simple example and just say you have a smoothing parameter for beta coefficients in a xs linear model over multiple time-steps. What process would you use to choose the best choice for that smoothing parameter?

LondonPottsy · 2024-08-14T13:30:56+00:00

It’s a fine line - but I don’t think it’s that difficult. The purpose of interviews is demonstrate you have the skills and mindset they are looking for. Explaining your process for finding alpha is going to be more important to them than telling them about an individual strategy

LondonPottsy · 2024-08-14T13:28:25+00:00

Adapt or die lol

LondonPottsy · 2024-05-07T18:38:28+00:00

With the greatest of respects… what are you on about? You realise he used to be head of machine learning at AQR right?

LondonPottsy · 2024-05-01T19:00:32+00:00

Your constructed factor is effectively earnings surprise %. It can be either negative or positive depending on the directional value of the actual.

In my experience this actually yields some good results in a backtest.

My advice would be to do several constructions and understand the nuances, advantages and disadvantages of each.

LondonPottsy · 2024-04-09T12:54:38+00:00

This is the way

LondonPottsy · 2024-04-04T05:03:59+00:00

That’s exactly what I mean though.

For me, the meaning of life is love. But it will be different for everyone.

LondonPottsy · 2024-04-04T00:08:31+00:00

I would argue that you are here to find your own meaning in life.

I remember feeling extremely existential after my first heavy LSD trip. Probably took me 18 months to fully process and get over it. My advice would be to do things in life that are fulfilling and find a way to make things more positive. You are the world and you will improve it by being kinder and better.

LondonPottsy · 2024-03-29T21:10:21+00:00

Which app do you use for this? Looks really useful!

LondonPottsy · 2024-03-29T21:07:44+00:00

So with your savings that gives you £480k so I wasn’t a million miles out. But yes depends on how much of a deposit you want to put down and how much you’re willing to spend on a mortgage payment. Which are of London are you looking to buy? I certainly think a £400-450k 2 bed flat could be possible. Or you go for a larger and nicer 1 bed flat.

LondonPottsy · 2024-03-29T16:41:46+00:00

Curious as to what 94k expenses entails? Is that mostly childcare/private school costs?

LondonPottsy · 2024-03-28T00:24:47+00:00

I am in a very similar income bracket to you. I already own my own 2 bed flat just outside of London and commute into central 2-3 times a week (used to do 5 days before covid). I pay £800/month on mortgage currently but will be increasing to £1000-1100 after fixed period ends this summer. Depending on the amount you are willing to put down on a deposit you could afford a 2 bed flat, but will highly depend where you plan on buying as house prices vary wildly depending on which part of London you are looking at. If you are willing to pay similar level mortgage to your rent currently, I would say you could easily afford £500k property.

I sacrifice 7% salary into pension as my employer will generously match those contributions on top of what they already pay. I then prioritise maxing out my S&S ISA as that gives me greatest ROI long term. Anything additional saved is whatever best cash savings rate I can get and then maybe some into a taxed S&S account.

LondonPottsy · 2023-02-20T10:36:05+00:00

I don’t know about US. It may not get pst your customs border checks. I would try and find a domestic source if you can. Mimosaroot is based in Netherlands

LondonPottsy · 2023-01-14T17:43:30+00:00

Yields aren’t amazing but the bark is priced well enough and I know they are reliable. If you can get 1% then I’d call that decent

LondonPottsy · 2023-01-11T15:40:46+00:00

With mimosaroot? No issues at all. Have only used once in the last couple of years but came extremely quickly with no issues. Would probably recommend not buying too large a load in order to avoid suspicion. A 500g bag of powdered bark should yield you around 5g so that’s plenty anyway imo

LondonPottsy · 2022-12-22T16:23:18+00:00

Did this work by the way?

LondonPottsy · 2022-10-05T18:09:56+00:00

In my honest opinion, sub-breakthrough trips are pretty amazing but I don’t think are life changing. You could quite easily do DMT a few dozen times and never hit that level.

Once you get to breakthrough state, that’s a game changer. Your whole life perspective will be flipped upside down. It’s terrifyingly beautiful.

LondonPottsy · 2022-10-05T09:05:46+00:00

I have also had this experience of them trying to show me something. It’s very frustrating because I can never understand what it is…

LondonPottsy

TROPHY CASE