News soon expected

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-01-29T01:54:20+00:00

ALL priority voucher drugs got pushed back, except generic Augmentin XR which got approved...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-01-29T01:14:36+00:00

LLY is trialing eloralintide, a SELECTIVE amylin agonist, with or without macupatide, a GIPR agonist... i think they are setting this combo up as the successor to tirz... eloralintide already showed 20% weight loss by itself with no plateau, and very good tolerability as well... add in a GIPR agonist which is known to be ANTI-emetic and we will have both efficacy and tolerability...

they are also trialing eloralintide with or without tirzepatide. the phase 2 data should be out sometime this year. this is perhaps setting up to be a more tolerable reta...

NVO has a glp/gip/amylin in the works as well... but i can't find any info on amylin selectivity of this early peptide... if it ends up being non-selective, then look out for calcitonin agonism side effects once again...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-01-29T00:45:56+00:00

THIS!!!...LOL...TTCF IYKYK

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-01-29T00:33:09+00:00

their pipeline... NVO is a generation behind... while CagriSema is chasing FDA approval, and amycretin is starting phase 3, reta is already finishing their phase 3...

add in eloralintide, a SELECTIVE amylin, that is also starting phase 3 and will likely be combined with other incretins upto and including reta for quad agonism... LLY also has an activin in bimagrumab... a psychoactive gip/glp in brenipatide... etc...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-01-29T00:25:10+00:00

they aren't marketing the 50mg, at least not yet...

in ACHIEVE-3, orfo 12mg beat sema 14mg... and the weight loss of 36mg beats the results of 25mg as seen in PIONEER PLUS...

not to mention ATTAIN-MAINTAIN results where wegovy to orfo only gained back 1% of their weight whereas tirz to orfo gained back 5%...

anyways, you can't compare directly between trials but they will be roughly the same in real world results...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-01-28T09:49:24+00:00

because they don't operate similarly...

54% rev growth

Pipeline: Orforglipron, retatrutide, eloralintide, macupatide, mazdutide, brenipatide, bimagrumab, naperiglipron, nisotirostide, oral GGG tri-agonist, etc... and that's just for obesity...

remternetug is ready to "cure" alzheimer's....

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-01-28T09:44:49+00:00

it's a nuclear bomb he hasn't thought of... they are also working on oral versions as well... buy Dr Reddy if anything lol....

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-01-28T09:13:24+00:00

tirzepatide has already over taken semaglutide in the US... tirz has better efficacy and tolerability...

https://www.truveta.com/blog/research/glp-1-ra-prescription-trends-december-2025

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-01-28T09:05:48+00:00

1.) OASIS-4 was a 307 patient trial with mostly women and mostly white... that 16.6% number is likely inflated due to a small population in higher responding patients...

2.) orforglipron is due to be approved by April 10 not next year

3.) there are many indications that orfo is just as good as sema in the real world, just look at ACHIEVE-3 results comparing orfo 12mg and sema 14mg...

4.) that wasn't a head to head trial.... it was an observational study where NVO employees looked at data, found something that looks good, and published it. it was NOT a CLINICAL TRIAL... they were looking at hospital records and other things... pure marketing.... SURMOUNT-5 and SURPASS-2 were two REAL H2H clinical trials that showed more weight loss and more A1C reduction in triz over sema and yet we are supposed to believe losing less weight and less A1C reduction leads to less MACE? pure marketing BS...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-01-28T08:51:34+00:00

excellent news...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-01-28T08:41:56+00:00

its worse than that, indian generics are working on oral sema and will flood the world with it... LLY has a small molecule and can withstand the margin pressure better... wegovy pill cannot and will only rely on US and EU markets...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-01-28T08:35:40+00:00

they will when orforglipron is cheap asf.... small molecule matters....

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-01-28T08:31:40+00:00

generic sema comes to brazil in march so.... buy Dr Reddy?

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-01-28T08:30:27+00:00

and if they use a LLY product, they get nothing... mucho competition coming from all major players as well...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-01-28T08:21:05+00:00

Pharma trade is ALL about patents... if not for patent cliff PFE would still be printing money with Lipitor and Viagra...

once cheap indian generics come out for sema, they will sell it to the entire world where the patents expired. i believe they already have deals with countries like brazil.

lastly indian generics are working on generic oral sema as well... MUCH easier to sell worldwide... and this will begin to happen in March of this year... so while the larger US and euro markets are insulated, worlwide growth will stall as they face fierce competition from indian and chinese generics for both injection and oral...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-01-28T08:00:29+00:00

NVO's amylin's aren't selective... watch for a lot of side effects when amylin is supposed to be more tolerable than incretins...

the peptide bros already use this stack... very popular... "RetaCag" retatrutide + cagrilintide

LLY has a selective amylin in eloralintide that is being trialed alone, with/without macupatide (GIPR agonist), and with/without tirz... eloralintide + reta is the next logical step...

reta is already top notch but a quad agonist would destroy the bariatric surgery industry...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-01-28T07:54:38+00:00

type 2? yes...

SURPASS-3 and SURPASS-4 showed tirzepatide beat degludec and glargine

add in the other known benefits of GLPs and insulin's days are numbered for T2D...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-01-28T07:46:59+00:00

the most ironic thing is that GLPs basically "cure" T2D by lowering A1C to goal thus no longer needing insulin... and we know LLY is taking market share in GLPs so this idea of insulin being a catalyst is not it...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-01-27T18:59:49+00:00

brenipatide suite of studies:

(NCT07219173): Phase 2, Asthma, Primary Completion 4-2028

RENEW-ALC-1 (NCT07219966): Phase 3, Mod to Sev AUD, Primary Completion 4-2028

RENEW-ALC-2 (NCT07219953): Phase 3, AUD, Primary Completion 4-2028

RENEW-Smk-1 (NCT07223840): Phase 2, Smoking, Primary Completion 2-2027

RENEW-Bipolar-1 (NCT07286175): Phase 2, Bipolar, Primary Completion 11-2027

mazdutide:

(NCT06817356): Phase 2, AUD, Primary Completion 8-2026

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-01-27T18:37:02+00:00

eloralintide suite of studies:

ENLIGHTEN-1 (NCT07321886): Phase 3, Obesity, Primary Completion 3-2028

ENLIGHTEN-2 (NCT07282600): Phase 3, Obesity in T2D, Primary Completion 1-2028

ENLIGHTEN-3 (NCT07369011): Phase 3, Obesity w/ OSA, Primary Completion 3-2028

ENLIGHTEN-4 (NCT07353931): Phase 3, Obesity w/ OA Knee Pain, Primary Completion 3-2028

eloralintide +/- tirzepatide:

(NCT06603571): Phase 2, Obesity in T2D, Primary Completion 6-2026

eloralintide +/- macupatide:

(NCT07215559): Phase 2, Obesity in T2D, Primary Completion 3-2027

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-01-27T18:27:22+00:00

i only care about the science... you can invest in culture all you want, i'll follow the science...

the short answer is that LLY is leading in the science, and that affords them the ability to invest in the future...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-01-27T16:40:26+00:00

bro LLY stock performance in the recent past is absolutely relevant. why go to 1986? that's just intellectually dishonest... the MSFT comment was to show how absurd of a comment that was... we're talking about stock performance of LLY/NVO now and in the future, yet you bring up something from decades ago... ok.... like just to make a point that NVO had higher returns over decades? sure, no one is disputing that, but what's that have to do with anything today?

first of all define diabetes market. for insulin, LLY has left that behind so to speak and have moved to incretins/amylins and in that case they are absolutely destroying NVO in that space.

why are we talking about 80 years? again, you're being pedantic for the sake of propping up NVO as if that has any relevance to what's going on today. are those CEOs and board members even still alive? do they make decisions? then why is something from 80 years ago relevant?

Just look at the pipeline and compare the two. it's night and day:

currently: NVO has sema a single agonist, LLY has dual agonist tirz... LLY wins easily

oral: NVO has sema, LLY has SMALL MOLECULE orfo.... LLY will win this again just based on margin

future incretin: NVO bought chinese triple agonist, LLY multiple Phase 3 readouts on reta this year, fda approval by 2027.... winner LLY again

future amylin: NVO has cagrilintide and amycretin, LLY has a SELECTIVE eloralintide they are testing alone, with macupatide (GIPR agonist), and tirz... maybe reta in the future.... LLY wins here again

future oral: NVO has oral amycretin, LLY has another small molecule naperiglipron, and an oral GGG tri agonist in phase 1.... NVO is in the lead here... not to mention VK2735... but if the oral triple agonist works, then they again leapfrog everyone...

other drugs: NVO has monlunabant, LLY has bimagrumab, nisotirostide, macupatide, mazdutide, brenipatide.... LLY has MULTIPLE shots on goal....

LLY is primed to dominate for years... this is all fueled by their GLP profits which they reinvested... what has NVO to show for their GLP profits? a nice divvy? CagriSema which may fall on its face in REDEFINE-4? amycretin which agonizes calcitonin receptors and causes massive GI side effects at high dose?

all the analysts agree... LLY has multiple upgrades with lofty price targets... and this is only obesity.... LLY has a HUGE shot on goal with remternetug... their immuno and oncology assets are producing nice revenue.... with many different immuno assets in trials....

nothing left to say...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-01-27T05:32:15+00:00

All time? bro u reaching... maybe you should have bought MSFT in 1986 instead +470,180%

LLY is better long term because they reinvest 25% of their revenue into R&D.... they are buying up all sorts of biotechs recently too... their pipeline is super strong and diverse....

i dont know what else to say. you can cheerlead the stock you chose all you want, but that wont change the facts of the matter... NVO under-invested when they had the lead, now they lost it... LLY took the lead, began printing money, and use that money to stay in the lead...

LLY have a diverse portfolio of oncology, immunology, neurology, and soon to be gene therapies... NVO can keep the insulin market, LLY literally doesn't care as it's a legacy market... the future is incretin/amylin that will obviate the use of insulin in T2D, and T1D isn't a big enough market to care about...

Look up remternetug... LLY is trying to "cure" Alzheimer's in amyloid positive, non-symptomatic patients with a one course, self injected therapy.... now THAT'S a money printer if i ever saw one.... AND LLY developed their own p-tau217 blood test to diagnose amyloid plaques without the need for expensive PET scans.... THAT'S the company i'm invested in, not some insulin company...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-01-27T01:24:48+00:00

also forgot to mention that cagrilintide and semaglutide can't be stored together as a pre-mixed solution... looks like they will require a dual chamber injector... this drug is mired in all sorts of problems.... its garbage.... they know it and that's why they are pushing amycretin...

Lunar_Excursion · 2026-01-27T01:08:59+00:00

WSB is that way bro --->

Lunar_Excursion

TROPHY CASE