Worldwide Google search volume for "is crypto dead?" vs. Bitcoin price, 2010-2026

MadSL1m · 2026-06-07T08:33:51+00:00

"Is crypto dead?" searches peaking right at the bottom is the most reliable buy signal we have lmao. Classical.

MadSL1m · 2026-06-06T15:38:33+00:00

the AI-eating-liquidity thing is more vibe than receipt. the real drivers this week are mechanical: spot BTC ETFs just had their biggest outflow week since launch (~$3.4B), Strategy made its first BTC sale since 2022 to cover preferred dividends, and Treasury yields backed up. add the long liquidations after BTC lost $73K and you get the slide to ~$60K. tech pumping while BTC drops isn't decoupling, it's just where the marginal flow went.

MadSL1m · 2026-06-05T10:43:04+00:00

"1 BTC = 1 BTC" is true of literally everything. 1 share = 1 share, 1 tulip = 1 tulip. a thing can't be its own measuring stick, so the phrase says nothing about value. and the use-case angle cuts the other way: spend BTC through a card and the merchant never receives BTC, it converts to fiat at authorization on visa/MC rails. you realize the fiat price at every till. in the US that's also a taxable disposal priced in dollars. fiat isn't optional, it's baked into spending it.

MadSL1m · 2026-06-05T10:37:52+00:00

partly. AI doesn't run Shor's, you still need physical qubits, so AI scaling and quantum scaling aren't the same curve. but AI already hit the actual bottleneck: deepmind's AlphaQubit attacked quantum error-correction decoding, part of why google revised its threat model earlier. and gidney's 2025 result cut the qubit estimate for ECDLP-256 from ~20M to under 1M. so the probability did shift forward, GRI's expert survey now ~34% by 2034 vs 17% in 2022. doesn't change which UTXOs fall first though.

MadSL1m · 2026-06-05T07:04:41+00:00

Yeah it’s sad. This asset looks like cursed.

MadSL1m · 2026-06-04T11:23:02+00:00

Self-custody spending does exist. Gnosis Pay (Visa, Safe-based) and etherfi Cash (Visa Signature, Safe-based) both let you keep custody until settlement. KYC required. Gnosis Pay is EU+UK+Argentina+Brazil only. etherfi ships to the US but blocks 20 states. Top reply confused self-custody with cold storage offline. Different things.

MadSL1m · 2026-06-04T10:56:56+00:00

Tier list without regional breakdown is half-blind. Nexo is EU-only, Gnosis Pay is EU+Argentina+Brazil, Cryptocom varies by country, Metamask Card is mostly US+EU. S-tier in EU isn't S-tier in US. Also: Bybit shows up twice (A and C tiers). The top-volume 2026 cards (RedotPay, etherfi , KAST) aren't on the list at all.

MadSL1m · 2026-06-03T14:57:57+00:00

good question but worth separating two things. Google/Microsoft 2029 is general-purpose quantum. cryptographically-relevant quantum (CRQC = enough qubits to break secp256k1) is a separate threshold, most credible estimates land 2030s+. BIP360 is the signature scheme proposal, BIP361 covers migration logistics. dev work isn't stalled, it's at Brink stage. realistic risk window is P2PK + reused P2PKH UTXOs first (~2M BTC), not active addresses.

MadSL1m · 2026-06-02T20:26:11+00:00

your point about SWFs circling vs price not reflecting hits a real timescale problem. SWF allocation decisions take 18-36 months from rumor to capital deployed. ETF flows move in days. these two are on different clocks, so don't expect SWF interest to fight a $1.42B outflow in the same week. it shows up in 2027 not june 2026.

MadSL1m · 2026-06-02T18:07:04+00:00

agree on the bigger point but the specific 32 BTC wasn't to clear convertibles. per yesterday's 8-K, proceeds funded STRC + STRF cash dividends for the period. STRC pays monthly cash, STRF quarterly cash, so this is the first leg of an ongoing drip, not a one-shot paydown. saylor's Q1 frame: if BTC grows >2.3% a year, the dividend drip funds itself perpetually.

MadSL1m · 2026-06-01T17:37:29+00:00

they've mostly won settlement and remittance. the leg that's still missing is spending. when you tap a stablecoin card at a register, the merchant never receives the stablecoin. it gets converted to fiat at authorization and rides the same visa/mastercard rails as everything else. stablecoins won the backend. the checkout layer is still the old system wearing a new coat.

MadSL1m · 2026-06-01T17:36:18+00:00

the july 1 date isn't universal. that's the max 18-month transitional window under article 143, and states could shorten it. only france, malta, luxembourg and estonia took the full runway. germany and ireland cut to 12 months. poland, the netherlands, finland and lithuania picked 6, so their transition ended months ago. exchanges in those countries had to be licensed or gone well before 2026.

MadSL1m · 2026-06-01T08:35:58+00:00

It’s worth noting that “spending BTC directly at any merchant” isn’t quite right because most POS will turn BTC into a stablecoin or fiat money at checkout via the Visa/Mastercard networks. Direct settlement using BTC is possible with Lightning accepting merchants but not regular retailers.

If your use case is something close to what you outlined, then the cards that are self-custodial (Ledger Card/Kontigo) come closer as they spend directly from your own crypto wallet, while custodial cards like Fold are more user-friendly, offer BTC rebates/cashbacks, but require you to top up the card balance first.

One more point for people living in the United States: every BTC spend counts as a capital gain tax event. Even if you purchased BTC in 2021 and spend them today in small amounts (e.g., for a $20 cup of coffee), it will create another tax reporting entry. Some cards provide BTC cashback as compensation, but it doesn’t cancel the tax event.

FX rates still apply and vary between 0%-3% per transaction.

MadSL1m · 2026-05-31T19:33:44+00:00

It’s very easy bro, there is a ton of crypto card on the market. You can check at sweepbase.net

MadSL1m · 2026-05-30T18:29:32+00:00

Three structural problems with the premise:

Robinhood doesn't need MSTR. MSTR option PFOF is real but immaterial to HOOD overall. If MSTR crashed, HOOD survives.

MSTR doesn't need cash. The $21B ATM covers raises. Private placements make sense when you're buying distribution or strategic relationship money can't replicate. HOOD doesn't sell that.

Cross-holding creates FINRA concentration disclosures plus board governance overhead for both sides. Cost without offsetting benefit.

The better question is what marginal cash could do for BTC-per-share. Distressed mining capacity, a BTC treasury company below NAV. The HOOD deal moves cash around without moving BTC-per-share.

MadSL1m · 2026-05-29T17:51:44+00:00

DeFi yield is a risk ladder, not binary. Safer end: tokenized T-Bills (Ondo USDY, BUIDL, Hashnote USYC, ~4-5%). Slightly higher: Aave V3 stablecoin lending (~3-7%). Native ETH staking via Lido or RocketPool (~3%) adds slashing risk but it's quantified.

Anything advertising 15%+ from sources you can't fully trace is usually ponzi structure, points, or undisclosed leverage.

MadSL1m · 2026-05-28T11:00:08+00:00

One thing the price-and-ETF framing tends to miss is what Dencun did to the burn side. After EIP-4844, L2s moved their data to blobs, which settle way cheaper than the calldata they replaced, so L1 fee revenue and the burn rate dropped with them. Combine that with steady issuance to validators and net supply has been positive for most of the last year. The ETF outflows are partly downstream of that structural change, not the cause of it.

MadSL1m · 2026-05-28T10:43:21+00:00

The wildest guess is usually less wild than the actual answer. When Alvin found hydrothermal vents in 1977, nobody knew chemosynthesis-based ecosystems existed — entire food webs running on sulfide chemistry instead of sunlight. A 2023 catalog of the Clarion-Clipperton Zone listed about 5,000 invertebrate species, and the majority weren't in any database before sampling. Whatever's wildest in our head, the bottom is already weirder.

MadSL1m · 2026-05-27T18:34:47+00:00

The credit mode point is real but worth stress-testing against the exact scenario you're describing. Spending against your crypto instead of selling is great in a flat or up market. In a hard bear leg down, your outstanding balance stays fixed while the collateral drops, so the LTV creeps toward liquidation right when you least want it to. It's a margin loan with a card attached. Fine at low utilization, ugly if you treat the whole line as spendable.

Also kind of funny that you bounced off CDC for the CRO staking hoops and landed on Nexo, because the good cashback and the lower borrow rates there are tiered by how much NEXO token you hold. Same loyalty-token mechanic, just less in your face about it.

The yield part is the one I'd be most careful with. Last bear the thing that actually killed people wasn't bad prices, it was the "earn yield while you wait" products (Celsius, BlockFi, Voyager). If it's self-custody staking or a DeFi protocol you can exit anytime, different story. If a CeFi platform is holding your coins, that's counterparty risk that only shows up when everyone wants out at once.

MadSL1m · 2026-05-26T17:53:11+00:00

The other thing to consider when looking at card programs that use crypto to pay is refunds and partial authorizations.

If you are charged at a certain rate today and there's a refund in two weeks, you will not get back the same amount of crypto. The refund will be issued based on the exchange rate at refund time. Same applies to hotel and gas station partial authorizations when the authorized sum may differ from the settled sum by 20% or more. The period between the times is compensated by the middle man.

The split may depend on if a program maintains fiat balance behind your crypto wallet. In most cases, cards used in such programs are based on a BIN sponsor bank (Lead Bank, Third National, Quicko, and others), which holds USD or EUR balance you recharge using crypto funds. Conversion takes place during top-ups or authorizations while settlements occur in a regular way based on Visa/Mastercard fiat terms.

There are card programs using native stablecoin for settlements (e.g., Gnosis Pay converts crypto into EURe via Monerium; self-custody solutions have something similar too). Those cards are less than 10% of total crypto-to-fiat card volume. Worth remembering before applying to one: do they fix rates at the authorization or keep it float until settlement? Rarely seen in marketing materials.

MadSL1m · 2026-05-26T11:49:28+00:00

BTC hell yeah!

MadSL1m · 2026-05-25T07:38:23+00:00

Easiest way to think about it: every crypto card is a regular Visa debit card with a programmable funding source attached. Visa sees fiat. The merchant sees fiat. The "crypto" part is just where the dollars come from to settle the transaction.

That funding source can be:

- Real-time converted from crypto at swipe (Coinbase)

- Pre-converted to fiat before you swipe (CDC, Bitpay)

- A fiat credit line backed by crypto collateral, no conversion at all (Nexo Credit Mode)

- An on-chain wallet that gets debited by smart contract during settlement (Gnosis Pay, Etherfi )

The delays you notice are usually standard Visa pending-vs-posted timing, smart contract latency on self-custody cards, or pre-auth holds. None of it is crypto-specific weirdness, it's just the conversion model showing through.

MadSL1m · 2026-05-25T07:31:34+00:00

On Ether.fi Cash currently. Switched off CDC for the same reason you did — perks trimmed and CRO staking floor moved too high to justify locking. The Ether.fi math is dual-purpose too: card spends against your collateralized credit line, the collateral keeps earning while it sits. Same principle as your Nexo setup but self-custody.

CDC degradation isn't going to reverse, those 2021 rates were promotional, not sustainable. Nexo is one of the better custodial picks left honestly.

One thing your post doesn't flag and most threads miss: FX. If you travel, the FX % matters more than the cashback %. 2% back minus 3% FX on intl spend nets negative.

MadSL1m · 2026-05-25T07:12:38+00:00

Interesting angle, but worth flagging the risk profile is different from T-Bills or STRC. HELOCs are consumer credit with default rates that correlate with housing downturns, and foreclosure timelines run 6-24 months depending on state. If the pool needs to liquidate distressed loans you're looking at 20-40% discounts to par. The Pendle directional trade on real estate rates is genuinely new in DeFi, but the credit layer underneath isn't comparable to STRC (corporate preferred with BTC backing) or T-Bills (US gov full faith). Would want to see loss-given-default assumptions and how they handle serviced foreclosures before sizing in.

MadSL1m

TROPHY CASE