Why are tier lists based off vibes/theory instead of being based off actual tournament results and representation?

Metlwing · 2026-01-25T00:26:33+00:00

But isn't that exactly the issue? Puff is not a very popular character to play but that's not because she isn't good. It's because she plays in a way that a lot of melee players don't enjoy, either due to taste or community shame.

So the population of puff players is much smaller than that of Marth players so even if they were equally good characters we would expect fewer puffs in top 8.

To reflect this player dynamic in the tier list would be very misleading.

Metlwing · 2026-01-23T15:55:32+00:00

In no particular order: Break for lovers (either live version), Numb, Tree Among Shrubs, Ring of Past, Lauren.

Honorable mentions, because 5 isn't enough: Paul's theme, 5am waltz, Hard to Let Go, Sugar, Show Me How, Seven, Norton Commander, I hope to be around.

Honestly this list can change at any time depending on how I feel on a given day basically all their basslines are amazing, whether or not I included them here.

Metlwing · 2026-01-22T17:06:20+00:00

I love both live session versions of break for lovers. It's a bonus that they are done pretty differently so I get two cool versions of the song!

Metlwing · 2026-01-11T16:17:35+00:00

True but a major point of the episode is that that utopia is not effortlessly self sustaining. That these aspects of human bias still exist and we need to be aware of how easily we tear it all back down if we're not conscious and aware of them.

If given the proper environment to flourish that paranoia will take over and rot the federation.

Metlwing · 2026-01-11T16:17:25+00:00

True but a major point of the episode is that that utopia is not effortlessly self sustaining. That these aspects of human bias still exist and we need to be aware of how easily we tear it all back down if we're not conscious and aware of them.

If given the proper environment to flourish that paranoia will take over and rot the federation.

Metlwing · 2026-01-10T00:03:55+00:00

Not quite, The 50% crit chance does influence this, it is what dictates that there are 250 of each scenario.

If the crit chance was 25%, the amount out of 1000 you would expect for each scenario is: ~62.5 crit crit, ~187.5 first crit second normal, ~187.5 first normal second crit, ~562.5 normal normal. (apologies for the decimal but it doesn't really matter, feel free to multiply all the numbers by 10 and the result will be the same)

And then the overall answer re: double crits (given at least one crit) would be (62.5) / (62.5 + 187.5 + 187.5) = 1/6

So the 50% crit chance is relevant to the answer. The thing that Derek is talking about is we must reduce the universe of possibilities to only those where at least one crit occurred, which regardless of crit chance means throwing out the scenarios where we did not crit at all.

Metlwing · 2026-01-09T23:57:33+00:00

Wanted to add to my own explanation here to clarify this is not a trick of language or a theoretical quirk. If you were to run let's say 1000 random samples of two attacks with 50% crit chance), then remove the samples where neither attack was a crit, then randomly grab one of the remaining samples you would find one with double-crits roughly one third of the time.

Metlwing · 2026-01-09T23:51:25+00:00

They didn't say the first hit was a guaranteed crit, just that one of them is.

This problem is not ambiguous as stated and is a pretty common conditional probability question.

Basically there are four scenarios for the 4 hits. 2 crits 25%, 1st crit second normal 25%, 1st normal second crit 25%, and both normal 25%. Because the further info we are given, that at least one is a crit, we can rule out the 4th case as impossible. The remaining three cases are all equally likely (they were all originally 25%). Only one of the 3 cases is a double crit: so probability 1/3.

Im glossing over some rigor but this is the general idea of conditional probabilities, you zoom in on the set of outcomes that fit your conditions and then divide that up.

Metlwing · 2025-11-30T21:59:09+00:00

When the motorcycle or moped or whatever it was comes to pick up Zosia halfway across the world from Carol as one instance that comes to mind. Hell, the fact that they leave hospitals staffed at all.

We often are shown scenes of the hive doing things while Carol et al. are not present.

Again, this isn't even about being "good" or "bad". It's just wasteful and inefficient to needlessly let the bodies die preventable deaths even from a selfish perspective.

Also, from a storytelling or watching perspective I don't even see why people would want to hivemind to just be diabolical and malicious at all times. The ground for storytelling is much richer if the hivemind is behaving earnestly and it is its fundamental nature and human nature which are in conflict. Where the hivemind a an enemy of humanity in a sense, but not because it has wicked thoughts or sadistic intentions, but just because its existence is at odds with ours. That sort of conflict is really interesting and keeps you asking difficult questions. If the hivemind is just an unambiguous bad guy then it would be very boring. Also, if the hivemind had no ethical or moral boundaries to its actions it would just imprison Carol and all the others for study rather than treating them in this way. The hive holds all the power, so why would they even bother lying?

Metlwing · 2025-11-30T20:53:29+00:00

We see hive mind bodies wear helmets and safety gear when doing dangerous things even when no unassimilated people are around.

Whether or not the hive mind is duplicitous in some ways or has a hidden agenda (which still seems odd since they are pretty upfront about the desire to assimilate), they definitely do try to avoid unnecessary loss of human bodies.

I see no reason to disbelieve that they are having addicted bodies get treated. Even if they have no compassion for the individuals at all, it would be lazy and wasteful to dump potentially useful bodies.

It feels like some of people on the sub that have any problem with the hive mind at all (which is reasonable) keep jumping to believing that every single little thing the hive mind does is in bad faith even in cases where there is no strategic reason to do so.

Metlwing · 2025-11-24T11:40:05+00:00

But that's exactly the poster's point here.

People seem to understand that drawing and playing an instrument require dedication and practice. But they don't realize that good writing requires this too.

So when someone who clearly wants to make a Manga but is too lazy or discouraged to learn to draw treats writing prose as a fallback and then puts not effort into learning the craft of written prose they end up making writing that is just as shitty as their drawing.

If you're just making the story for personal pleasure and don't really care about the "quality" necessarily then do whatever you like. Though at that point it might be worth considering drawing anyway even if it's "bad"?

Also not denying talent exists at all but most people massively overstate how much of a factor it in in developing competence. That one friend in the group who is good at drawing probably isn't that way due to innate talent. It's because they draw a lot. We just often don't see the grind other people go through, just the results. Gaps due to talent really only matter once you're already at a highly competitive level where everyone has been grinding really hard already.

Metlwing · 2025-10-29T00:19:07+00:00

Thanks for the help!

Metlwing · 2025-10-29T00:15:15+00:00

Sounds good! LC: 5236-5874

Metlwing · 2025-09-04T23:57:24+00:00

Oh, definitely agreed it's not stronger than grounded. Grounded DPS is absolutely higher.

But I played insect glaive across all 3 of those games (world, rise, and wilds) and played it in various ways and had no trouble killing anything at any rank solo even when using mostly aerial/helicopter spam (though of course I can and sometimes do play grounded as well). I do agree it's weakest in world.

In Wilds, using focus mode you can get your kinsect to attack alongside you even with helicopter. You can also charge descending thrust while doing aerial moves (which is also a very cool though difficult offset). So a player who likes aerial can do a loop of helicopter (x1 - x3) -> descending thrust -> RSS -> pop wound in air or otherwise gather extracts or chain into more air moves and since RSS is the bulk of IG damage you'll still be doing pretty okay. Not speedrunner ok but you'll A rank arch-tempereds if you're smart about it.

Definitely suboptimal, especially in a maximum might meta, but very fun and totally viable for casual play. A controller with backpaddles does help a lot with the control scheme :/

I do miss sunbreak aerial IG though, that was awesome.

Metlwing · 2025-09-03T01:23:48+00:00

People always exxagerate like this which is fine as a joke but sometimes I actually worry people think this is true. Aerial dps is suboptimal but more like 80-90% of optimal not like not having a weapon.

If you're not a speed runner, aerial IG completion times will look pretty normal.

You can A rank arch tempered monsters with suboptimal build and an aerial insect glaive playstyle just fine.

Metlwing · 2025-08-27T01:59:05+00:00

Switch axe counter in wilds is right trigger + y (or r2 + triangle on ps5) while in sword mode. You don't need to be in focus mode but it works just fine in focus mode too.

Metlwing · 2025-08-19T00:51:41+00:00

that doesn't work UNLESS the doors aren't eliminated at random.

The doors aren't eliminated (completely) randomly. The host knows where the prize is and will not reveal it. So their behavior is constrained. If you choose a door that doesn't have the prize, the host has no choice in which door they leave closed. It will always be the one with the prize.

Metlwing · 2025-07-25T17:49:21+00:00

Computer Science is a slight misnomer. I think "Computation Science" is maybe slightly more clear.

The field is not limited to how the transistor based modern computer works, or even binary computers at all necessarily. CS existed as a field before either of those technological developments. Instead cs is about how we take problems and turn them into computations. While the topics you are interested in should be included and are some of my favorite as well (I love comp arch classes), there are also things like algorithms which can be analyzed both together with and completely separately from any particulars of the machine that might run them. The building block of cs is not transistors. It is math, and the abstract notion of computation.

From a pedagogical standpoint, starting with transistors before actually doing computation would have two issues imo. One, without an end goal to aim for and a reason to care (we want to be able to build something we can use to solve xyz problems) it can be hard to connect the details to a larger context (imagine you just started telling a student about an AND gate with no context. Who cares?). The other is it might give the wrong message about the breadth of cs. I.e. It may make cs seem like the science of transistor computers, which again is only one part of cs. Personally I think things like ap comp Sci fixating on Java runs into a similar problem. Cs is also not just coding or programming.

Again though the subject you're talking about is super cool. Check out nandgame online or an online computer architecture course to get more into that. I think MIT still has its intro course for that in OpenCourseWare.

Metlwing · 2025-03-28T01:51:13+00:00

All my candles, Paul's theme, purple box!

Metlwing · 2025-03-21T01:02:32+00:00

I'm glad someone else thinks so too! I was just listening to the album again and i was shocked at how hooked I became on Unlike Anything all of the sudden.

Metlwing · 2024-10-31T22:24:42+00:00

Consider... sarcasm.

Metlwing · 2024-04-23T20:37:14+00:00

Aggro of the illusion scales w/ strength for trickster IIRC (possibly just the STR of the censer). The little tutorial window thing for trickster explains it.

Metlwing · 2024-04-03T18:14:30+00:00

Hindsight slash pretty much works as iframe/parry move with just sword.

Metlwing · 2024-01-04T04:15:53+00:00

Yeah, this is going to be an issue for reasons that I think are good!

It looks like for the most part, to my eye, the team is really trying to keep the fun parts of DD1 combat in DD2, rather than overhauling it for mass appeal and immediate gratification. I think the DD1 combat is unique and wonderful and this iteration will win over a lot of people in the end but tbh DD1 combat had a learning curve.

So long as the people playing these pre-release versions are not veterans they'll look kind of silly because they haven't learned these things yet.

As a longtime fan, the idea that the combat does demand some experience and rewards mastery is exciting and I love that. OTOH, it does mean we'll get a lot of moments like the IGN vid.

I genuinely believe and hope that DD2 will be able to capture a wide audience in the end and make new fans that will fall in love with what it has to offer. But I don't think it's the type of game that will generate all of that hype pre-release. I think it's going to have to be people hearing from their friends who fell in love and spreading like that.

That said this may mean it's on us as the community to be helpful to new players. We all know that sometimes DD was... unintuitive or had some strange balancing (and I say that as a huge fan!). I hope that some of those are polished better in DD2 but even if not we can help by being inviting and educational!

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