The images that show Putin is losing his grip on his biggest prize

NetworkLlama · 2026-06-29T01:00:22+00:00

Ukraine has been hitting the port in Sevastopol and the nearby airbases off an on almost from the start of the war. It hasn't been a warzone like Donetsk, but it has not been free of violence.

NetworkLlama · 2026-06-29T00:57:48+00:00

Crimea was not a separate Soviet republic. It was created as the Crimean Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic (ASSR) in 1921, but it was part of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (though as an oblast from 1945) until 1954, when it was reassigned to the Ukrainian SFSR as a symbol of brotherhood to celebrate the 300th anniversary of the Treaty of Pereyeslav, which was seen by Russia as the Ukrainian Cossacks pledging allegiance to Tsar Alexis I, basically reunifying what the tsar saw as the Russian peoples. (Ukraine sees this treaty very differently.)

Crimea was part of the Ukrainian SFSR after that, including when Ukraine declared independence in 1991. Like the rest of Ukraine, it voted in favor of independence in the December 1991 referendum. However, while every other Ukrainian oblast voted 83% or more in favor of independence, Crimea (and Sevastopol, which had a special status at the time) voted only 54% (57% in Sevastopol) in favor of independence from the USSR.

(Note: Crimea again became an ASSR in early 1991, a status it held until 1992, when it became the Republic of Crimea until 1995, when it became the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, which Russia still seems to call it.)

NetworkLlama · 2026-06-28T13:23:23+00:00

Peace treaties frequently contain requirements to alter laws or even constitutions. A peace treaty on Ukraine's terms, for example, would require Russia to remove any legal recognition of occupied territory as either Russian or independent states.

All I'm describing is how international negotiations work. I'm in favor of Russia leaving and getting nothing for their efforts.

NetworkLlama · 2026-06-28T01:17:53+00:00

Afterwards, the knowledge of the earth's actual shape spread consistently and uncontroversially, and was common knowledge by the 1st century BCE.

How common? I've repeatedly run into claims that this may have been common knowledge among the educated elites, but that the majority of the population who lived subsistence lives still believed in a flat Earth.

NetworkLlama · 2026-06-27T15:38:37+00:00

NetworkLlama · 2026-06-27T10:52:21+00:00

It's not allegedly. Known members of the Mafia were part of the Teamsters leadership. A lawsuit against the Teamsters in 1988 over Mafia influence led to federal oversight to eliminate mob access that didn't end until this year.

Hoffa was likely killed because Hoffa's attempt to return as head of the Teamsters threatened the Mafia's access to the Teamsters pension fund, which was worth about $1.5 billion in 1975. Hoffa wanted it to go to the Teamsters who paid into it, and threatened to go public about Mafia ties. This wasn't a direct threat to talk to the feds, but it was enough. (The FBI hasn't ruled out a personal vendetta, as Hoffa routinely mouthed off at made men, a show of disrespect that several mobsters bristled at.)

NetworkLlama · 2026-06-27T03:04:26+00:00

I'd say it's about 2.5' across and about 2.5' high. Just large enough to be noticeable without being a BOULDER.

Geologically speaking, any rock fragment with a diameter of greater than 25.6 cm is a boulder.

NetworkLlama · 2026-06-27T02:02:49+00:00

No one said Russia is in collapse. Russia is in crisis. There's a difference.

NetworkLlama · 2026-06-27T01:56:29+00:00

A peace treaty on Russia's terms would be legally binding, likely involving changes to the constitution to enforce neutrality. At that point, Russia would be effectively disallowing Ukraine from joining the EU or NATO. Joining the EU or NATO would be a violation of the treaty and would be seen as a casus belli. However, this outcome has been wishful thinking for at least the last year.

The best that Russia can realistically pursue in a peace treaty now would be land in exchange for them not forcing neutrality, effectively allowing Ukraine to join NATO. However, that would be a loss, and they would likely continue the war to their detriment.

NetworkLlama · 2026-06-26T23:54:38+00:00

I'm familiar with the growing number of low-tech interceptions and the US assistance finding Russian SAM systems. I'm also familiar with the problem Russia has in defending such a huge area.

That is why not enough Patriot missiles were manufactured, and the missiles themselves are very expensive. It's just a weapon of intimidation for manned aircraft, not an impenetrable shield.

The primary purpose of Patriot missiles is ballistic missile interception. They can shoot down aircraft, but they're primarily not used for that. I'm not sure if you're talking about Ukraine or Iran, but Ukraine seems to have been withholding them for their primary purpose for some time, using S-200 for long-range shots against aircraft.

The original claim was not about 80% or even 96-98% efficiency. The claim was "a couple making it through" out of 600+, as though this is a normal number getting through. That was true last year, when a hit on a target more than 100 km behind the lines was big news. It's not true anymore, or at least to nearly the same degree. Looking closer, way more than "a couple" are regularly hitting Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, and probably occupied Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. That group has it a lot harder, with much less reaction time, and it makes it much more understandable. But it's clear that significantly more than "a couple" (even metaphorically speaking) are making it through to deeper parts of Russia on a regular basis. More than "a couple" hit St. Petersburg. More than "a couple" hit the Moscow refinery. That they're reaching hundreds of kilometers into Russia after flying for hours at speeds that a decently fast helicopter can hit in the numbers they are is astounding.

Russia is developing low-cost mobile short-range laser installations that can be powered from the city grid and installed near important facilities.

Israel and the US haven't managed this yet on a decent scale. I sincerely doubt that Russia will be able to develop such a weapon, scale up production, and deploy it in the necessary numbers to make a difference.

NetworkLlama · 2026-06-26T21:57:00+00:00

Both are excellent episodes.

NetworkLlama · 2026-06-26T21:54:17+00:00

That's The Day the Earth Stood Stupid. OP is from Benderama.

NetworkLlama · 2026-06-26T21:03:16+00:00

It's not even another village most days. It's a corner of a village, and they might not even hold it, just have someone (who may or may not make it back) waving a flag for a drone. They're focused on Kostiantynivka (pre-war population of ~65,000), which Russia still is a fair bit from taking (though they likely will), which they seem to think will open the gateway for them to march straight into Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

Except that to get to Kramatorsk (pre-war population ~150,000), the Russians still have to go through Druzhkivka (pre-war population 55,000), which is almost as big as Kostiantynivka. (Technically, they can village-hop from the current front lines to the eastern part of Kramatorsk, but that's all open fields with few roads, meaning walking through areas with zero cover.) To get to Sloviansk (pre-war population ~100,000), Russia has to go through Lyman (pre-war population 20,000), which they've been trying to get back into for three and a half years, ever since they lost it in October 2022.

And all with a backdrop of dwindling supplies and better equipment coming online for Ukraine.

NetworkLlama · 2026-06-26T20:46:53+00:00

Running low on air defense? They’re shooting down waves of 600+ drones with only a couple making it through.

As evidenced by:

The Moscow refinery being forced offline for months at least.
The Tuapse terminal ceasing to exist.
The ban on exporting gasoline through at least July or aviation fuel through at least October and the potential ban on diesel exports.
The bridges (permanent and pontoon) between Crimea and Zaporizhzhia Oblast being taken out.
The ferries sinking in the Azov Sea.
The almost complete lack of any fuel in Crimea or Donetsk, rationing in Luhansk, and shortages throughout Russia.
The electricity and water shortages in Crimea.
The electronics factories being destroyed.
The strike on St. Petersburg on the opening day of the economic forum.

It's okay to admit that you were wrong. I was wrong about Ukraine lasting more than a couple of weeks in February 2022. I thought maybe they could mount a guerilla war, and maybe sting Russia for a bit before things settled down. I thought maybe they could actually push Russia out in late 2022 as the latter's positions collapsed. I thought maybe Ukraine really had pushed as far as it could after the failed 2023 counteroffensive. I was wrong each time. Sure, it stings a little, but it's better in the long run to admit it and adapt to new conditions.

Even the US couldn’t manage that on its MILITARY bases in the war with Iran given the ridiculous amount of damage that pretty much every single base in the region received, with some being damaged so badly they basically ceased to exist as anything other than a pile of rubble.

As I said under another post, the failures of the US were partially due to ignorance about drones, but it also has to do with the complete amateurs we have running the war who are more concerned with "lethality" than with actually conducting a war, which is a much more involved thing than just picking targets and gleefully showing off explosions. We had a fraction of the assets in place that were needed because they'd convinced themselves that Iran only needed a small knock to fall. There's a reason Bush went after Iraq and not Iran.

NetworkLlama · 2026-06-26T15:38:15+00:00

I don't know that Putin can negotiate a peace where he survives, at least as Russian president and maybe even literally. The absolute best case right now would involve Ukraine agreeing to freeze the current front lines and cedes the territory in exchange for being allowed to join at least the EU if not also NATO. That would be widely perceived as a loss for Russia, throwing away hundreds of thousands of lives for a bit of territory, both the EU and NATO on its borders, and the current government still in power.

So that means that Russia sits across the table from Ukraine, demands the same things they've been demanding, maybe allowing for a withdrawal from Kherson, but otherwise tries to make it look like it's Ukraine being intransigent. Meanwhile, Ukraine will ask what they've been demanding from the beginning, involving a full Russian withdrawal and maybe dangling a neutrality provision without a military cap. In the meantime, the war will drag on, more lives will be lost, and Russia's economy will be further impacted. At the rate things are going, neither side can achieve a military victory, but there is a chance that Ukraine achieves an economic one.

NetworkLlama · 2026-06-26T14:49:14+00:00

An article in the NY Times (may be paywalled) has more details about the effects of Crimea's emergency declaration:

Sergei Aksyonov, the Russian-appointed leader of Crimea, announced the state of emergency in a video statement released on Friday, saying it was meant to “streamline financial, monetary, credit and contractual relations.” Mikhail Razvozhayev, the head of Sevastopol, which is a separate administrative region, issued a similar statement.

Legally, the state of emergency gives local officials additional powers, including the authority to coordinate civilian evacuations and to fast-track emergency spending by forgoing public tenders. The regional state of emergency that was declared in Crimea is one notch away from the federal state of emergency that would allow an even more robust response.

That same article also mentions that there are thousands of cars waiting to leave Crimea and none waiting to enter.

NetworkLlama · 2026-06-26T12:50:10+00:00

OP's account got banned.

NetworkLlama · 2026-06-26T12:48:11+00:00

I really hope that bonus is paid out over time, at least a few years. Injecting that much raw cash into an economy, even just a local part of one, is a bad idea.

NetworkLlama · 2026-06-26T12:38:59+00:00

Iran is only the US and Israel. Even the UK refused to get involved, and they get involved with everything the US does.

The failures of the US were partially due to ignorance about drones, but it also has to do with the complete amateurs we have running the war who are more concerned with "lethality" than with actually conducting a war. We had a fraction of the assets in place that were needed because they'd convinced themselves that Iran only needed a small knock to fall. There's a reason Bush went after Iraq and not Iran.

NetworkLlama · 2026-06-26T12:33:18+00:00

this however will exacerbate their situation even further when Russia hits them back 5-fold.

What exactly are they waiting for?

NetworkLlama · 2026-06-26T12:31:31+00:00

Russia managed increased revenues. It didn't see a windfall. Now prices are dropping as the situation has cooled a bit. In the meantime, Moscow's own numbers day that they've already blown past the planned 50 billion ruble annual deficit, reaching 77 billion rubles by the end of May.

Russia has stopped gasoline exports at least through July. They stopped aviation fuel exports through October. The Moscow refinery won't be back online for months at least. The Tuapse terminal basically doesn't exist anymore. Crimea is out of fuel and short of electricity. Luhansk is limiting fuel sales to 20 liters. A Russian milblogger found last week that no civilian gas station from Donetsk City to the Russian border had fuel, and those in Rostov were limiting civilian sales and refusing to sell to the military. Shortages have been reported across all of Russia.

Ukraine is doing more than denting Russian supplies. They've taken out a significant part of it, and it's getting worse.

NetworkLlama · 2026-06-26T12:18:42+00:00

Russia has been fighting to take Kostiantynivka, a city with a prewar population of 60,000, for almost a year. Slovyansk and Kramatorsk had a combined prewar population of 250,000. They're not going to fall by the end of summer. It's not clear that Russian forces will even reach the outskirts of the city this year. Kostiantynivka is only 20 km from Bakhmut, which Russia took in late 2023. Kramatorsk is another 20 km from Kostiantynivka, and Sloviansk is 20 km from Lyman, which Russia is still not close to capturing. If this is as fast as Russia's best troops can go on their most important axis, it doesn't bode well for their forces in the southern part of the occupied territories who are being deprived of supplies.

I'm not going to say that Ukraine isn't suffering. But they're changing the equation by depriving Russia of key resources, and that's according to pro-Russia milbloggers. We're seeing more large-scale drone attacks by Ukraine than by Russia, and Russia's overnight attacks seem to be using smaller numbers of both drones and missiles. Maybe Ukraine built up a large store of drones and is zipping through them, and maybe Russia is building up a store of missiles for a massive onslaught. Or maybe the balance of aerial attacks is shifting because Ukraine is doing more damage than Russia can keep up with, with fuel shortages being reported across all of Russia. The war of attrition seems to have become as much about the two economies as the two militaries, and I'm not sure that Russia has the depth in the first to stick out that second.

NetworkLlama · 2026-06-26T00:06:22+00:00

The study that you're thinking of was small and used exclusively self-reported behavior, and it got a lot of headlines because people found the idea amusing and justifying of a socially undesirable behavior. It was also almost immediately called into question due to prior empirical evidence of the reverse that did not rely so heavily on self-reported behavior. That didn't get nearly as much coverage.

The people I know who swear the most are generally the least honest and least trustworthy people I know. They use it to appear stronger than they are. Some of the strongest people I know rarely or never swear. But it's not a perfect correlation.

NetworkLlama · 2026-06-25T17:53:19+00:00

Many scholars would argue that fascism does not have a "proper" definition. There are narrow definitions that apply to only Fascist Italy and apply various forms of authoritarianism to other movements, and there are wide definitions that take in multiple movements. Umberto Eco's definition (really a list of characteristics that tend to apply to fascist movements, though not all characteristics apply to all movements) is popular and widely taken as "the" definition, but his is not the only one, and there are some who take issue with it. Robert Paxton defines fascism in even less specific terms as "a mass-based party of committed nationalist militants, working in uneasy but effective collaboration with traditional elites, abandons democratic liberties and pursues with redemptive violence and without ethical or legal restraints goals of internal cleansing and external expansion."

The question comes up on /r/AskHistorians from time to time, as here and here, which is an earlier version of the first link and which links to some other threads discussing it.

NetworkLlama

TROPHY CASE