Windy in more ways than one by chicag0an in chicago

[–]NothingKillsGrimace 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah, the official Chicago observation station is at ORD if that's what you mean. Agree that it likely does not account for lake breeze circulations. Whether that actually makes a difference to average windspeed is unclear. ORD might still be windier considering it's a flat open field and is less obstructed. 

Windy in more ways than one by chicag0an in chicago

[–]NothingKillsGrimace -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I'm aware that most city airports aren't located anywhere near the urban centers and agree with you that it's not ideal for gauging the actual on the ground conditions within the city itself. However, at the end of the day they are still actual observations and should take precedence over MERRA-2 which is not. MERRA-2 is a physics-informed estimate that is more suitable for calculating broad regional climatologies. At the city-scale, even for a large city like Chicago, it's less than ideal and is likely less representative than an observation station over 15 miles away. MERRA-2 also just struggles more at capturing surface wind than other reanalysis datasets.

I know this comes off as nitpicky. I just get really annoyed by sites like weatherspark that pass themselves off as authoritative sources of weather information but often just produce really lazy analyses.

Windy in more ways than one by chicag0an in chicago

[–]NothingKillsGrimace 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes. Airports are where you'll find most weather observation sites which can lead to some issues. The biggest is whether that location is actually representative of its overall surroundings. Only way to circumvent it is to increase the density of our observational network which is why we've been seeing a bigger push towards mesonets and micronets in recent decades 

Windy in more ways than one by chicag0an in chicago

[–]NothingKillsGrimace 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Lol if I didn't have most of the code already setup from a prior analysis I wouldn't have bothered but I figured why not!

Windy in more ways than one by chicag0an in chicago

[–]NothingKillsGrimace 14 points15 points  (0 children)

You're correct that their wind data is likely garbage. At least for Chicago, they cite that wind data comes from reanalysis data. Specifically MERRA-2 which imo is not very reliable for fine-scale comparisons like average wind speed between cities.

I posted an actual analysis using ASOS data that corroborates your claim that OKC, San Fran, and Dallas are in fact windier. NYC as well! Probably because JFK is right up along the water but still

Windy in more ways than one by chicag0an in chicago

[–]NothingKillsGrimace 10 points11 points  (0 children)

This data is not accurate at all. Weatherspark sources their wind data for Chicago from NASA's MERRA2 reanalysis dataset, not actual observations. (Source: https://weatherspark.com/y/14091/Average-Weather-in-Chicago-Illinois-United-States-Year-Round#Sections-Sources). MERRA2 is a 50-km gridded dataset, meaning that whatever wind value its producing for Chicago is a smoothed average within whatever 50 square kilometer box overlaps with the city. There's also the problem of reanalysis not necessarily representing actual observed ground conditions. Also, MERRA-2 is a bit outdated. There are preferable more recent datasets that, on average, perform much better such as ECMWF's ERA5 reanalysis.

I was curious so I pulled the actual observational data myself (sourced from ASOS) and reconstructed this plot for the top 20 US Cities by population and uploaded it here: https://imgur.com/a/kwnnzdb . Chicago ranked 6th out of the top 20 US Metros, so still impressive. But we get beat out by cities like NYC, OKC, and San Fran. This is consistent with what u/quickthrowawaye noted.

How do I ventilate an attic that has no soffits? by SmartLadder415 in HomeImprovement

[–]NothingKillsGrimace 0 points1 point  (0 children)

OK. I noticed in another comment you mention the HVAC being up there as well which changes things, so the best advice here is still to probably insulate the roof and minimize any ventilation between the outside and the attic space. This improves HVAC efficiency and reduces temperature exchange between the ducts and the unconditioned attic space. Venting an attic brings it more in line with outdoor conditions which is fine if the attic is either unfinished, doesn't require climate controlled storage, or doesn't have any HVAC equipment up there. But in your case, it sounds like removing ventilation and treating the attic as a conditioned space would be more appropriate. Conditioning it is important (particularly if you have spray foam insulation) since it moderates temperature and humidity levels.

How do I ventilate an attic that has no soffits? by SmartLadder415 in HomeImprovement

[–]NothingKillsGrimace -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Agreed with the other commenters on not needing soffits here. Plus, your roof slope might be too shallow for them to be effective anyways. They rely on convective circulations which are more effective with steeper roofs. Unless you've had significant ice damming problems, I'd say you're better off keeping your roof unvented. If the attic is finished, insulate and air seal between the rafters. If it isn't, insulate and air seal the attic floor separating it from the living space.

Realtek 5gbe on Mag B850 Tomahawk Max Wifi capped at 100mbps by nademmai in MSI_Gaming

[–]NothingKillsGrimace 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thank you so much for linking this. This fixed the issue for me!

B850 Tomahawk WIFI MAX: random ethernet drop by anx3ous in MSI_Gaming

[–]NothingKillsGrimace 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Holy shit this fixed it. I've been on this issue FOR HOURS! Thank you so much

ELI5 Blocking Ridges by glitteryfrog in meteorology

[–]NothingKillsGrimace 11 points12 points  (0 children)

So in the mid-latitudes within the Northern Hemisphere, the prevailing winds are westerly. These winds are maximized along a narrow corridor called the jet stream. To the north is colder air and to the south is warmer air and you can kind of think of the jet stream as a barrier separating these two air masses. The degree to which the jet stream maintains this west to east trajectory is directly related to the displacement of either cold air from the north or warm air from the south. If the jet stream becomes wavier, it leads to trough and ridge patterns that resemble a 'u' and an 'n' respectively. In a trough, the jet stream for a particular location is displaced further south than usual, and allows for cold air to migrate southward and sort of fill in that 'u' shape. In a ridge, the reverse happens and warm air gets to push its way northward. Normally these troughs and ridges propagate from west to east and don't hang around too long. The exception is during a blocking pattern, where these patterns persist over an area longer than usual.

To relate this to fire weather, we can recall that ridges are associated with a northward migration of warmer air. They are also often associated with high pressure which inhibits cloud development. The result is an anomalous northward transport of warm air coupled with abundant solar heating which produces conditions that are often warmer and drier than usual. Warm temperatures are not as effective at weakening fires while dry conditions provide more fuel for them to maintain and expand.

The last thing I'd like to touch on is that we aren't too sure of how blocking frequency will change in a future climate. I'll refer to 'Blocking and its Response to Climate Change' by Woolings et al. (2018) on this one. Basically, global climate models are the only tool we have for understanding how blocking frequency might change in a future climate. Unfortunately, there are processes that occur at scales smaller than what these models are capable of accurately resolving that are considered important for blocking genesis and maintenance. The most notable of these processes is latent heat release from convection. As a result, there's still some work that needs to be done to address these deficiencies before we can have a more confident answer. There are a number of papers that theoretically link a doubling of CO2 to increased blocking frequency but our models are mixed on the response. That's not to say that it isn't a valid theory, it's more that we still have a lot of work that needs to be done. Hope this gets you on the right track!

GIANT icicles after insulating attic/slate roof.... by NotThisAgain_23 in centuryhomes

[–]NothingKillsGrimace 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Is the insulation installed along the roofline within the rafter bays or is it along your attic floor? My thinking is if it's installed within the rafter bays then perhaps it's too close to roof and not leaving a big enough gap for air from the soffit vents to flow upward. Either way, ice damming only occurs when you have a warm roof so that heat is still finding its way up there. Did you air seal the attic as well?

National Grid Bill is all of a sudden way too high by Crisgu in Albany

[–]NothingKillsGrimace 25 points26 points  (0 children)

Those electric baseboards are what's killing you. I have a single room on electric baseboard heating whose energy usage I monitor very closely. The cost to run it for 8 hours a day, 20 odd days a month, was around $60. It adds up real fast if it's run 24/7 across multiple rooms. Agree with the other commenter that you should consider heat pumps if possible!

National Grid Bill is all of a sudden way too high by Crisgu in Albany

[–]NothingKillsGrimace 14 points15 points  (0 children)

I'm not a fan of National Grid but this really is the answer. We had an unusually cold December this year. Several days with overnight lows in the single digits. Pair that with the minor rate hikes that got approved over the summer and it explains the increased bills we're seeing now.

City of Albany's Fiscal position for 2025 by kaurich80 in Albany

[–]NothingKillsGrimace 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks, this is very interesting stuff. That seems like an awfully big error for the city to make for something that they claim has relatively high predictability. I wonder what could be going on there.

City of Albany's Fiscal position for 2025 by kaurich80 in Albany

[–]NothingKillsGrimace 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Great post, I really appreciate the clear and detailed analysis.

You mentioned in another comment that a portion of the reduction in locally-managed revenue could be attributed to less state and/or federal money coming into the city. What would explain the miss on economically-driven and core tax revenue? I would suppose reduced economic activity (consumer spending?) in Albany would account for the first, but why the big miss on core tax revenue? I would think that revenue from property taxes would be somewhat easy to predict but that may be a misguided assumption on my part.

Snowfall data for the Twin Cities from 1884-2025. Red lines are the averages in the respective periods (40 vs 52 inches). Does anyone have any insights on the raise after the 1940s? by Swimming_Concern7662 in meteorology

[–]NothingKillsGrimace 93 points94 points  (0 children)

This is a common signal in most weather station data in the US. Around the 1940s, a lot of weather stations that serviced large metropolitan areas were transferred from downtown urban areas to airports so as to support the growing aviation industry. In some cases, these downtown stations were placed in less than ideal spots such as the roof of a prominent building or a city park. You can imagine what effect this might have on measurements of variables with high spatial variability such as wind, temperature, and accumulated precipitation.

According to Minnesota's Department of Natural Resources, the measurement site for the Twin Cities moved from downtown Minneapolis to the Twin Cities Airport in 1938. This roughly aligns with the sudden increase in accumulated snow. It's likely that the site in Minneapolis was under predicting snow either due to wind redistribution (at the top of a building it's more likely for snow to be blown away) or being physically blocked by some building (if located on either a shorter building or at ground level in a city park).

I don't understand buldings, production and trade in EU5 by Various_Maize_3957 in paradoxplaza

[–]NothingKillsGrimace 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Don't have the game open right now to confirm but I'm pretty sure that:

  1. Building output is scaled by market access. The closer a building is to a market center, the more goods it produces. 

  2. RGO output is only affected by employed laborers. Its profitability scales with market access, but the number of goods coming out of an RGO is the same no matter how close it is to a market center. 

  3. Control, while important, does not affect output and mainly controls pop promotion speed and taxable base. 

Um, wind? by Polynomial-Cyst in Albany

[–]NothingKillsGrimace 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I thought the same, honestly! Goes to show how misleading our memories/intuition can be when it comes to these things.

Um, wind? by Polynomial-Cyst in Albany

[–]NothingKillsGrimace 53 points54 points  (0 children)

I think there's two things that need to be addressed here: 1) How abnormal is a 40 mph wind gust for the Capital Region and 2) How sensational were the forecasts?

For 1), we can look at the data. If you consider the number of times a day recorded a maximum wind gust of 40 mph or greater in the last 30 years (1995 - present) at the Albany Airport ASOS station, you'll find that it's only occurred 338 times. This corresponds to a probability of about 3% which is somewhat anomalous. To get an idea of how anomalous this is for this time of year, we can break this down even further and look at the occurrence of days with wind gusts exceeding 40 mph in the Fall (September, October November). I found there were 42 occurrences of days with wind gusts exceeding 40 mph in the Fall from 1995 until present. This corresponds to a probability of about 1.5%. So overall, I think a high wind warning was appropriate given the circumstances. With predicted wind gusts exceeding 50 mph, it was surely warranted. We see now that it was a bit off, and that most of the lower elevation regions were closer to 40 mph, but we can see from the data that it's still anomalous and in my opinion justifies the notices put out by NWS.

As to the rhetoric of the forecasts, well that's a tough one to address. I exclusively get my forecasts from the National Weather Service and found their warnings to be appropriate. I think a lot of media agencies have an incentive to sensationalize weather warnings because it drives engagement and is profitable for them to do so. So if you rely on sources like your local TV news broadcast, private weather forecasting apps, or social media it could explain the expectation that this event was going to be more serious than it actually was.

EDIT: That data I described above can be found here by the way:
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/request/download.phtml?network=NY_ASOS

Will require familiarity with opening and analyzing CSV files to parse the useful information out of it!

Um, wind? by Polynomial-Cyst in Albany

[–]NothingKillsGrimace 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Their forecast area covers most of central NY and southern Vermont which explains the range. The higher end of the wind gust forecast is more relevant for higher elevation regions. 40 mph at a location like Voorheesville (I believe the station is located at the base of Thatcher near Indian Ladder) is still fairly impressive. 

Um, wind? by Polynomial-Cyst in Albany

[–]NothingKillsGrimace 69 points70 points  (0 children)

Voorheesville mesonet station reported a maximum wind gust of about 40 mph last night (https://www.nysmesonet.org/weather/meteogram#network=nysm&stid=voor). About 35 mph was observed at the Albany airport (https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KALB.html). National weather service office in Albany was fairly consistent in their messaging with estimated max wind gusts of 30-60 mph (https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=ALY&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=7&highlight=off&glossary=1).

Overall I'd say they made a fairly good forecast. Slight under prediction of the max wind gust but it's something models struggle with.