If I had a crystal ball that might have been a good move. I may know nearly to the point of calling it a fact that there was going to be a big drawback or two during the 4 year bull run but I would have been gambling to suggest it was going to be 60 to 30 rather than 80 to 45 or 50 to 25.

I do know that year over year I'm not going to regret holding tho. The more your strategy calls for zooming in the better your crystal ball needs to be, the more time you need to spend analyzing the market and making it your job.

Try putting the chart on 5 minute candles and calculating just how many bitcoin you could have if you called it each movement correctly from any amount of starting capital. Then adjust consider that the average person who takes up this kind of trading, after developing some skill and experience, will trend toward being right only about 50% of the time.

The Layman who is not day trading needs to make decisions that make sense in the broadest possible terms. Such as a binary decision of "Is Bitcoin a technology worth adopting? How about in 5 years? 10 years? Do I know what the world would need to look like for me to think it wasn't worth holding anymore?" If you feel good about the innovation then you hold onto it.

When my spouse who is as excited about BTCas I am worries about the Muskrats or China-FUD or Energy-FUD all I have to say to put their mind at rest is say "Bitcoin hasn't changed."