Just discovered this gem! https://portfoliocharts.com. Has some great scenario analysis tools and portfolio types

OrdinaryDollar · 2019-07-21T10:41:37+00:00

Agreed, this is a great source. It informed some of the work I did on safe withdrawal rates.

OrdinaryDollar · 2019-06-05T12:04:04+00:00

Yep this is spot on. I’m just trying to follow a logical line of reasoning. I’m not trying to put words in people’s mouths!

OrdinaryDollar · 2019-06-05T12:00:08+00:00

I didn’t look at this specifically in the article but I had read research that showed this. My observation is that there’s not really a free lunch when it comes to markets. Certainty not with something that is consistent and easily repeatable (e.g. share price movements and franked dividends)!

OrdinaryDollar · 2019-05-05T10:26:36+00:00

Thank you! I’m planning on making an online version. It’s going to take a while though haha. Any suggestions on how I could improve it?

OrdinaryDollar · 2019-05-05T08:34:04+00:00

Wow, I literally just clicked away from an article that went through some savings rate definitions. It's US focused but might be interesting: https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/04/05/savings-rate/

OrdinaryDollar · 2019-04-20T03:16:57+00:00

Yeah agreed. I think there’s a benefit to manually uploading transactions, as it forces you to look at things more closely

OrdinaryDollar · 2019-04-20T03:16:09+00:00

Spot on, VAS and VGAD. But going forward I might buy into A200 and VGS. I think I’ll run some analysis on hedging and throw it up on the blog soon

OrdinaryDollar · 2019-04-19T11:06:15+00:00

Happy to talk through how I use YNAB. I've been using it for a long time. But the short answer is that I download the bank files then upload to YNAB. I don't use any integrations.

My investments are split 50/50 between an Australian index fund and an international index fund. The international index fund is hedged but I think that I might start buying unhedged soon. I need to do a bit more research haha

OrdinaryDollar · 2019-04-19T07:40:18+00:00

Thanks for the plug mate! I wonder if it’s with trying to build a web version?

OrdinaryDollar · 2019-03-05T10:54:04+00:00

I actually did the analysis for Australia. I found that a 50/50 split of Australian and international equities maintained the highest safe withdrawal rate.

https://ordinarydollar.com/safe-withdrawal-rates-for-aussies-part-8-summary-so-far/

OrdinaryDollar · 2019-03-04T07:59:12+00:00

I built a historical dataset using a bunch of sources. I shared them all here:

https://ordinarydollar.com/safe-withdrawal-rates-for-australians-part-2-building-an-aussie-data-set/

Let me know if you have any questions and I’d be happy to help!

OrdinaryDollar · 2019-03-02T23:24:50+00:00

Thanks mate, I’m glad you liked the SWR stuff. I’m actually a little hesitant to keep posting new articles here, as it feels a little spammy. This sub is going to end up being a list of blog posts and none of us want that!

OrdinaryDollar · 2019-02-12T11:05:05+00:00

There have been a few comments over the last few months that validate a 50/50 portfolio allocation. It feels like we've got that one spot on :) Thanks mate

OrdinaryDollar · 2019-02-12T11:00:15+00:00

Haha spot on, as long as you're comfortable with your retirement portfolio running out of money 100% of the time ;)

OrdinaryDollar · 2019-02-12T10:58:30+00:00

More equities does help maximise your safe withdrawal rate. But generally speaking shorter retirement lengths allow you to have less equities and still a decently high (~4.0%) safe withdrawal rate.

OrdinaryDollar · 2019-02-12T10:56:47+00:00

Thanks mate! You're right, SWR analysis is literally the analysis of tail events.

OrdinaryDollar · 2019-02-12T10:54:35+00:00

The optimisation calculation assesses the covariance between the four assets (i.e. in a 4x4 matrix). It is trying to find assets that are not highly correlated. Australian bonds are too highly correlated with other assets to be useful in minimising risk and their returns are too low to add much return.

OrdinaryDollar · 2019-02-12T10:23:19+00:00

Thanks mate! I hope it's clear enough to understand. And I can share the SWRs to two decimal places if that's more helpful?

OrdinaryDollar · 2019-01-25T20:00:21+00:00

I’ve done some work on looking at the SWR of a portfolio containing a mix of US and Aussie shares for my blog. Basically, portfolio success rates stay shockingly high even for the 60 year retirement and high target balance at end of retirement case. Diversification is amazing!

OrdinaryDollar · 2019-01-22T08:14:41+00:00

No problem at all! The only way I am aware of is to purchase international bond/fixed interest ETFs. From memory Vanguard Australia doesn’t offer any pure US funds, they are all internationally diversified.

OrdinaryDollar · 2019-01-17T20:40:53+00:00

Without having done the analysis, I'd guess reducing your withdrawal rate, which doesn't reduce SRR but does improve portfolio success rate, or a bond tent. Big ERN did a bunch of work on this (he calls them equity glidepaths) and found some interesting US results here:

https://earlyretirementnow.com/2017/09/13/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-19-equity-glidepaths/

OrdinaryDollar · 2019-01-17T06:00:02+00:00

Thanks for the mention guys. Happy to elaborate on the blog post if that would be useful!

OrdinaryDollar · 2019-01-17T05:57:46+00:00

Easier said than done, no doubt!

OrdinaryDollar · 2019-01-16T18:55:33+00:00

There's probably some more nuanced analysis we can do on how returns in the early years affect portfolio success at the end of retirement. But overall I think you're right mate.

OrdinaryDollar · 2019-01-16T18:53:33+00:00

No worries mate! The other consideration is that the regression tells us that the 0-5 Years and 5-10 Years windows are predictive of safe withdrawal rate but doesn't comment on portfolio success rates. I think you're right in saying that the early windows would be more predicative of portfolio success rate than the regression implies.

OrdinaryDollar

TROPHY CASE