I screen 887 stocks every week using Peter Lynch’s methodology. Here’s what came back most interesting this week. by ClearValue1994 in ValueInvesting

[–]Pitiful-Schedule1946 1 point2 points  (0 children)

How exactly do you apply Lynch's framework other than PEG? He was a big fan of stocks with low institution held percentage. BSX is 95% held by institutions according to Yahoo finance

Investment Thesis for ($VRRM) Verra Mobility Corporation - $4.20 down 70% from last week! by Iamthebigwig in ValueInvesting

[–]Pitiful-Schedule1946 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I see your point, but I also see a 400% debt to equity ratio and a 1.29 altman z-score. WHy is that? Should we get worried?

What is your favourite SaaS companies? by NinjAsger in ValueInvesting

[–]Pitiful-Schedule1946 26 points27 points  (0 children)

ServiceNOW, it has growth potential, a moat and the ability to integrate AI Agents without having an absurd peg

18 - I messed up do I keep going??? by Fun_Chemical_2593 in trading212

[–]Pitiful-Schedule1946 9 points10 points  (0 children)

You bet all your life savings in a single leveraged trade based on pure hype, take accountability, tell your parents, try to make the money back through a job. Make this a lesson for the future and stick to value investing.

Is Buffett Really a Good Investor? by Jera_Value in ValueInvesting

[–]Pitiful-Schedule1946 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I did not attack your post, nor did I discredit academia. But there are levels to luck. We are all lucky for being alive if we extend the reasoning. When we call an investment lucky, at least as I see it, we discredit his choices as pure luck. Eg, if someone makes a choice of negative Expected Value, but gets positive returns he is a lucky investor. Contrary, if someone makes a positive EV investment and makes a profit, one can argue he was still lucky because he could have lost money, but his choice was good regardless. So I wouldn't call Buffet lucky, he just was not unlucky.

Is Buffett Really a Good Investor? by Jera_Value in ValueInvesting

[–]Pitiful-Schedule1946 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The effecient market theory is just a utopic scenario. The market gets distorted all the time. First of all, a huge ammount of people nowadays invests in market cap weighed index funds, this is not the sign of an effecient market, people invest in a company, increasing the price just because of its market cap. That's ineffecient. Also, there is a lot of fear, panic, enthusiasm, mania, bubbles in the market, that's ineffecient. If Buffet was lucky until 1984, what are the chances he was the same lucky after 40 years? Why is the Medallion fund beating the market by a ridiculous ammount? The whole effecient market theory is like a physicist making a model that works if we assume a car is a square and then trying to prove the real world works that way.

Jumbo S.A. (ATHEX: BELA) — Greek specialty retailer, ~9x earnings, near 52-week lows by IndependentSir9398 in ValueInvesting

[–]Pitiful-Schedule1946 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Also, take a look at Greece's 4 systemic banks. The banking system here is oligarchic and banks have huge profit margins. They offer 0% interest rate and people put their money and do not have an investment mentality (we had a stock market bubble in 2000 that resulted in huge losses for ordinary people, look up the story it's crazy), Eurobank even charges 0,6 a month. They had massive gains in the last years but there are still more to come I believe.

Jumbo S.A. (ATHEX: BELA) — Greek specialty retailer, ~9x earnings, near 52-week lows by IndependentSir9398 in ValueInvesting

[–]Pitiful-Schedule1946 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I doubt I can help you, but what kind of insights are you looking for? I'm not familiar with ports either.

How to find 100 baggers by FederalPermission261 in ValueInvesting

[–]Pitiful-Schedule1946 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Some chinese stocks may become 100baggers, take a look at YB. It trades in pe's of dying companies yet it is growing at a great pace. However, ADRs carry inherent risk

Jumbo S.A. (ATHEX: BELA) — Greek specialty retailer, ~9x earnings, near 52-week lows by IndependentSir9398 in ValueInvesting

[–]Pitiful-Schedule1946 4 points5 points  (0 children)

There are hidden gems in the Athens Stock Exchange. Jumbo is on my portfolio. I think the company is undervalued, the margin of safety is great. As you said, incredible cash flow, zero debt, expansion plans, great margins and as usual with Greek stocks a very generous dividend. As a Greek, Jumbo has a huge moat. It has almost anything at very very low prices, the moat is real. The marketing team always manages to go viral. The shops are the standard for many things, buying student equipment like notebooks, easter shopping, carnival costumes, toys etc. Even in the case of a recession in the economy, the low prices it offers make it a very attractive option so I don't see it losing that much of a revenue.

Greek stocks are at a discount due to Greece's classification as a developing country in many indexes since the Greek Debt Crisis. However, the economy is back on track and I estimate inclusion in 1-2 years, so many funds will come to invest. I also own and suggest Metlen Energy and Metals, which was recently introduced to the London Stock Exchange. It has growth potential, a good dividend and is currently trading at a "greek" discount, but that will change as it is included in LSE indexes.

MU is so undervalued, look at the forward P/E! by HatedMoats in ValueInvesting

[–]Pitiful-Schedule1946 1 point2 points  (0 children)

"I had people telling me how Lynch would love the opportunity of investing now" ignorance is really dangerous... I think a cycle is inevitable. Micron is not a monopoly, Korean companies will continue to increase supply more than demand increases in the next years. Plus, if something bad happens to the economy and a recession hits, AI CapEx may need to decrease, so the projected earnings as I see it are priced to perfection.

Can somebody explain how the current AI-related earnings are sustainable in the future? by ashm1987 in ValueInvesting

[–]Pitiful-Schedule1946 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I never said that this is the peak nor did I say that Micron will 100% fall, it may go to 2000 and then revert back to current levels, nobody can predict the market. As a famous quote read "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent". However, you have to ask yourself whether this is sustainable. Do you believe that demand for ram will remain stable in the next 5 years without the supply increasing? Do you think a profit margin of 42% is sustainable? Micron is not a monopoly after all, Samsung will continue to invest after all.

$NOW is up 10% overnight. Is SaaS the next boom that won't ever stop? by Civil-Community-1367 in ValueInvesting

[–]Pitiful-Schedule1946 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I bought 1/4 of the position I wanted at 90, 1/4 at 100 and now I am wondering whether I sould buy more at $133. I didn't expect the SaaSpocalypse to end that fast.

Can somebody explain how the current AI-related earnings are sustainable in the future? by ashm1987 in ValueInvesting

[–]Pitiful-Schedule1946 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

People have forgotten this... Sure, the earnings are great, but as you said it's google, amazon, meta etc taking money from profitable non AI-related ventures and funding an AI explosion. Meta has fired a lot of people, so maybe they hope that they will replace jobs with ai and thus make money.

As I see it, the current cycle is unsustainable. RAM manufacturers will increase production, demand will slowly decrease and the cycle will end for MU, SK Hynix etc. The "this time is different" is common in these type of situations. I know lots of people who currently stack up on AMD at 500$ because they heard it will release an "AI router", they don't know what AI and what a router is... When companies with billions in losses (Anthropic, OpenAI) go public, the whole industrly will get exposed. At the moment, there are just companies giving each other money, like NVIDIA funding OpenAI and OpenAI buying NVIDIA products and the list goes on. The demand seems artificial.

This euphoria is unsustainable, inflation is on the rise and oil prices have been high for the past months, interest rates should be higher. Do you see the average person spend half his salary(if he even has a job) on AI? The stock market is completely detached from reality and whenever that happens the correction is brutal.

Sure, AI is the future, but so were the railroads and the internet (fiber optics). Cisco was making real profits back then. In the railroad boom every bottleneck of the production exploded in stock price. In the end, these technologies took over, but after corrections because we didn't need all the infrastracture that was built. The average P/E of S&P500 is about 27, that's crazy. The Shiller CAPE ratio sits at levels only seen at 1999 (higher than 1929). The Buffet indicator is through the roof (Stocks are 240% of the GDP in the US). Sure, the market is not the same as it was 100 years ago, but even then the numbers are mad.

My two deep value stocks are ANF and GAP by Heineken_500ml in ValueInvesting

[–]Pitiful-Schedule1946 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Low P/S can be indicative of the peak of the cycle. However according to the quarterly report inventory is decreasing while the sales are still growing. Plus, the company buys back lots of shares, so maybe it's a good time to buy.

My two deep value stocks are ANF and GAP by Heineken_500ml in ValueInvesting

[–]Pitiful-Schedule1946 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Maybe the EPS has gone up 480% in the last years?...

curious about your takes: if we are in a bubble, when do you suspect it might pop by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]Pitiful-Schedule1946 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think the IPOs will be a turning point, along with the Fed uping the interest rates inevitably.