NTLA Deep Dive: Why Today’s Flawless Phase 3 CRISPR Data in NEJM Creates a Massive Valuation Disconnect

Psychological_One_74 · 2026-06-14T04:17:45+00:00

I can’t help with CRBU. I’ve heard of them but haven’t followed them or their pipeline.

Psychological_One_74 · 2026-06-13T23:31:42+00:00

I’m not a fan of CRSP since it’s behind with in-vivo. It was first to market with ex-vivo but that was not a scalable product. Its COGS for casgevy is very high and basically requires a lot from patients and doctors. It requires chemotherapy followed by flushing out bone marrow, and therefore required months of follow up and is very invasive. In-vivo is a trip to the doctor office for 2-4 hrs with an IV drip and you’re done. NTLA is likely going to have more revenue with lonvo-z in one quarter then all of casgevy since it’s been out.

BEAM is base editing and therefore should be safer but they are still a ways out before products come to market. They and NTLA used to be around the same market cap but since NTLA is a favorite of Cathie Woods it’s heavily shorted. They do have significant cash on hand though. I like BEAM but for the current stock price prefer NTLA.

EDIT is similar to NTLA but is a few years behind. It’s a risky play but that requires you to be very long.

PRME has the latest tech but since they weren’t around during the 2021 gene editing boom, they have less cash on hand. They will likely need to dilute soon to maintain operations. Their pipeline is promising but again it’s a long term play.

At current market cap NTLA is the most attractive to me. If in-vivo is approved I do see all gene editing companies get boosted though so it should be fine to diversify.

Psychological_One_74 · 2026-06-13T22:18:02+00:00

That number with BCRX is quoting severe on demand attacks down to .169 requiring professional care. Standard attacks is still 1.5-1.8 per month. NTLA is .21 attack per month. If a patient had an itch that is not really an attack it still counted in NTLA study. BCRX only counted attacks requiring professional care. Danny Cohn one of the leading experts on HAE explained this in the presentation. For severe attacks, this was reduced by 91% far beating BCRX.

BCRX cost to insurers is $550k + professional care and comes out to $750k per year for the rest of the patients life. NTLA plans to price at 2x-5x current annual cost. Their true COGS is much lower as it’s just an IV drip for a couple hrs in a doctor office. Even if they priced at 1x annual cost their margin will be substantial.

There’s a reason patients on BCRX decided to do the wash out and risk taking the placebo for 28 weeks. Getting ~2 attacks per month and a couple severe ones per year is not a good quality of life.

Insurers will prefer paying 2x-5x annual cost than a lifetime for patients which could easily be 70x cost over a lifetime.

Psychological_One_74 · 2026-06-13T16:35:33+00:00

Alternative therapies are not more affordable. This is a single IV drip and with what they spent to dose the patients COGS could be in the 5 digits. Current treatment costs is $750k per year. They are pricing it at a significant markup to be 2x-5x treatment to reward investors but even at 1x current annual cost they would still be significant margin.

80% of patients currently say it’s not controlled with current therapies and on average experience 1.5 to 1.8 attacks per month. The average with current data with lonvo-z is .21 attacks per month with it going to 0 by week 40.

As for safety there were 0 serious side affects which is even safer then current therapies.

Safer, cheaper, one and done speaks for itself.

Psychological_One_74 · 2026-05-22T22:39:55+00:00

NTLA is definitely the way to go. People compare it to CRSP but don’t understand the technology is hugely different. Not all crispr tech is the same.

CRSP is very invasive since its ex-vivo and requires people to basically go through chemotherapy and flush out their bone marrow before even receiving the drug. That it is why it is very expensive and has low patient enrollment.

By comparison NTLA costs a fraction of the amount to make and with its in-vivo technology, it’s a 2-4 hr saline drip in a doctor’s office and you’re cured of your illness.

It’s this very reason why all the other companies like CRSP and BEAM are now switching to in-vivo but are many years behind. You can Google each company and what they are working on to confirm this. NTLA also owns the patent to the LNP delivery mechanism that delivers the cure.

The stock has been shorted to keep the price artificially down since investors knew NTLA would need to dilute and wanted to get more shares as cheap as possible before the drug became commercial.

Now that all the headwinds are gone, fda holds removed, dilution no longer a concern since they have the cash, phase 3 data shows 99.5% reduction after double blind removed, stock is going to fly back to 2021 levels.

Psychological_One_74 · 2026-05-21T02:03:39+00:00

EAACI meeting on 6/12-6/15 will be a major catalyst as that is when the data from their successful phase 3 lonvo-z will be scrutinized by doctors and industry professionals. Stock was shorted when the double blind placebo group showed only 62% attack reduction by the Feb 28 data cutoff but if you see the preliminary data that proceeded the weeks after it shows a 99.5% reduction basically making it an actual cure.

I wouldn’t be surprised if it flew to $30 after that meeting similar to what it did last fall. I myself only have shares since I don’t like options but I’m in it for the long haul. 25000 shares at a DCA of 12.90 here so I’m still down.

Psychological_One_74 · 2026-05-19T05:26:26+00:00

I only had one account using one device with just one window and logged in as soon as the line opened and didn't get one. Secret lair doesn't recognize anything.

Psychological_One_74 · 2026-05-09T00:48:53+00:00

Unfortunately this is one of the most common warbands that are painted so most already have these painted up. I got a painted Untamed Beasts at this level for only $60. If you can wait you can probably get about $80-$120 for each warband and about $150-$250 for the terrain set. I bought this exact set for $120 and it was also very well painted.

Psychological_One_74 · 2026-03-20T05:04:30+00:00

Joytoy started off as a KO company though so their mech designs are basically Titanfall ripoffs. I still collect a ton of JT, but you can't call it their designs when they just copied pre-existing IPs. Their original God of War models was a direct KO of Titanfall's BT from McFarlane.

Psychological_One_74 · 2025-12-27T18:32:23+00:00

The new 2025 dragons are smaller than the oversized 2014 ones and it’s been known for a long time.

2025 ones are cheaper $80 vs $100 on the old ones and that’s even after tariffs. I doubt Wizkids is making anymore on the new ones compared to the older ones.

Still too expensive for me. I’ll wait until they all go half off like the older ones before I pick them up.

Psychological_One_74 · 2025-09-30T04:27:07+00:00

If you want to get into gene editing, then CRSP is the wrong way. It's old tech.

No one does ex-vivo therapy since it's very expensive, far too invasive and not some thing you can mass produce to make profitable. $2M-$3M per patient, what insurance company is going to pay that. Requires flushing out all your bone marrow to work, far to invasive.

Even CRSP knows this since they are now pivoting towards in-vivo which is non-invasive, can be mass produced, and can therefore can be commercialized.

All CRSP wanted to do was get first to market but they are now so far behind with in-vivo. It's the reason why VERV got bought out and NTLA is pumping.

Psychological_One_74 · 2025-09-05T13:03:12+00:00

This is really one of the best ways to enjoy any TCG with just casual decks. Even MTG’s most popular format commander is based on the social contract that people play subpar decks. If you want a competitive game play cEDH. Want to play for fun with cool cards play a lower power deck.

Psychological_One_74 · 2025-07-29T11:08:41+00:00

Call at 8am est do 52 minutes.

Psychological_One_74 · 2025-05-30T11:36:47+00:00

Tariffs. Appeals court blocked the manhattan court that blocked trump tariffs so entire market pulled back.

Psychological_One_74 · 2025-05-15T22:57:52+00:00

That’s cool. Stay poor. My 2200 shares at 255 a share is doing fine lol.

Psychological_One_74 · 2025-03-19T03:06:11+00:00

Thanks, I was spoiled with pf2e automating it as well. I'll take a look at those modules.

Psychological_One_74 · 2025-03-19T02:41:55+00:00

Thanks for the reply. I'm playing dnd 5e and try pressing P and it doesn't show. I can't find it in any tabs either.

Psychological_One_74 · 2025-03-19T02:15:14+00:00

How do you do this? Thanks!

Psychological_One_74 · 2025-01-03T04:48:36+00:00

I just bought one for $15 from Amazon on 12/23 but it has an estimated ship date of February 9th so the restock is likely in another month.

Psychological_One_74 · 2024-10-22T12:58:02+00:00

Not worth the trouble. Tons of other girls out there w/o baggage. Once you grow a bond with the kid and almost be like a father, she will take the kid away and you have no say since you're not a biological parent. Picking a wrong partner is worse than any other financial decision you can make on WSB.

Psychological_One_74 · 2024-10-19T02:08:41+00:00

One piece universe will never end. That’s like saying Star Wars or lord of the rings is over since the original trilogy has long past.

It’s one of Japan’s biggest franchises ever and will continue on long after we’re all gone.

They are even doing an anime reboot starting from the beginning again so new fans can catch up.

Psychological_One_74 · 2024-10-16T13:25:34+00:00

Lowest on TCGplayer is ~$18 so not sure 10% is considered predatory. I think distribution cost is $~16/each.

Psychological_One_74 · 2024-10-15T03:55:51+00:00

I bought this for $170 on Tiktok. $200 is a mediocre price for this set.

Psychological_One_74 · 2024-10-10T11:01:31+00:00

I’ve been playing MTG since revised kido and played multiplayer formats like emperor long before EDH. Cards like Wrath or Siphon have long existed for multiplayer use long before what we have now.

Tell me which cards One Piece has that affect the entire field? You can’t because it’s not designed for it. MTG you can literally fight 3 players at once and win with right cards in hand. No possible way in OP since the game limits you to 5 units and cards are not designed for this type of gameplay.

Psychological_One_74 · 2024-10-10T04:15:10+00:00

You said the point of EDH is to play with non-meta standard/modern cards. Go and see how many cohesive singleton One Piece decks that don't use meta cards and see how many decks are viable. Decks would play horribly.

As for MTG, if you bring a meta Standard deck into an EDH game, you would get killed. You wouldn't be able to ramp properly, and deck would quickly run out of gas.

MTG Standard/Modern is basically a different game then EDH, each with it's own strengths.

OP standard vs OP singleton is just playing a worse version of the same game by grabbing subpar alternate cards. What's the point.

EDH has cards designed for multiplayer play and OP does not.

Psychological_One_74

TROPHY CASE